Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
226
ABNT20 KNHC 150530
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 Sep 2025 07:10:09 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150527
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle to latter part of this week as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP3/EP132025)
...MARIO MAINTAINING INTENSITY WHILE PASSING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 19.2, -111.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150238 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO MAINTAINING INTENSITY WHILE PASSING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 111.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected into Monday, followed by a weakening trend beginning Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 130 WTPZ23 KNHC 150236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 016 WTPZ43 KNHC 150237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 The overall organization of Mario has been relatively steady through the afternoon and evening. Wind observations from Socorro Island indicate that the center of the tropical storm is passing north of the island. Recent satellite imagery suggests easterly wind shear has been tilting Mario's vortex and displacing deep convection to the west of the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 2.5/35 kt from SAB, and observed winds on Socorro Islands support maintaining the initial intensity of Mario at 40 kt for this advisory. The data from Socorro Island, which was within 30 n mi of the center, emphasize Mario's small size, with reported sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 27 kt since the last advisory. The initial position proved difficult to analyze, however the data from Socorro Island have helped to pin down the location of the low-level center, which matches the previous forecast track. The cyclone is moving slightly faster to the west-northwest at 295/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The track forecast is largely the same as the previous one through the next 36 hrs, then adjusted slightly east in line with the latest consensus aids. Mario is still forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24 hours, as it moves through an environment of warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful mid-level moisture, and low shear. The earlier bout of easterly shear may already be subsiding, as a new convective burst begins closer to the cyclone's low-level center. The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, in agreement with the consensus aids. Beyond 24 hours, Mario will cross the 26C isotherm, southwesterly wind shear will increase, and mid-level moisture will diminish. This unfavorable environment should cause Mario to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours, with dissipation by around 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney
Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 150236
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 X 25(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
20N 115W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/MAHONEY
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 02:38:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 03:22:16 GMT