SPC Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 678
MD 0678 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Areas affected...portions of north-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...
Valid 090400Z - 090600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for instances of severe hail and damaging wind
continues within WW193.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues southward across portions of
north-central Texas just south of the Red River and Wichita Falls.
Outflow has moved outward from this cluster but a few intense cores
remain (with tops around 40-45 kft). It is likely that nocturnal
boundary layer decoupling has occurred given lack of wind reports.
However, a few instances of severe hail and strong to severe wind
may persist over the next 1-2 hours.
..Thornton.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34099898 33999931 33699934 33309877 33249834 33189791
33179765 33269745 33389728 33599719 33819722 33959735
34099898
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 676
MD 0676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southern Arkansas...and northwest
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090219Z - 090415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The stronger storms will pose a risk of isolated severe
hail and eventually locally damaging wind gusts. A watch is not
expected in the near term, though trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...A west/east-oriented band of elevated thunderstorms is
evolving from far northeast TX into southern AR, mostly aided by
weak low-level warm advection. The SHV 00Z sounding showed around 7
C/km midlevel lapse rates atop a relatively dry/stable boundary
layer, which is yielding around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This elevated
buoyancy, coupled with a long/mostly straight hodograph (around 40
kt of effective shear), may promote a couple loosely organized cells
capable of producing severe hail -- especially in the near term.
With time, an increase in positive low-level theta-e advection is
expected in response to a passing midlevel trough to the north of
the area. High-resolution guidance continues to suggest that this
will result in an increase in storm coverage over the next several
hours. While this activity may gradually congeal into a loosely
organized cluster and root in the moistening boundary layer (posing
an increasing damaging-wind risk), fairly nebulous/unfocused forcing
for ascent limits confidence in this scenario. Therefore, a watch is
not currently expected in the near term, though convective and
environmental trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33009560 33389540 33619498 33839429 33869336 33749273
33369197 32959189 32479213 32199279 32109432 32219513
32409554 32739570 33009560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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