Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 161725 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/ Skies are cloudy over all but extreme northern sections of the forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Light rain showers are moving across sections of north Mississippi at this time. The cold front which moved through the forecast area early Monday is now along the Gulf coast. A series of upper level disturbance are forecast to move across Arkansas and into west Tennessee today and tonight. As each disturbances moves through, there will be periods of rain showers across the forecast area with the best chance of rain occurring this afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures will remain well below normal today with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight will also be quite chilly with lows Wednesday morning in the 40s to around 50 degrees. On Wednesday, high pressure will start to build into the region bringing an end to the rain. Temperatures will warm up some compared to today but will remain below normal with highs in the mid 60s. Wednesday night will remain dry and rather chilly with some locations in northwest Tennessee having temperatures drop below 40 degrees. Thursday will remain dry and chilly as high pressure covers much of the eastern U.S. By Friday, a cold front will plunge south from Canada. Rain showers are expected to develop ahead of the front and spread across the forecast area both Friday and Friday night, The cold front will move through the forecast area on Saturday so more showers are expected mainly during the morning hours. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday night bringing another period of dry weather and below normal temperatures from Saturday night through Monday. ARS && .AVIATION... Rain will likely continue through much of the upcoming TAF cycle as a mid-level impulse shifts across the region. Rain is not expected to be particularly heavy but may reduce visibility to MVFR levels for brief periods of time. Cigs should gradually improve at TUP but will likely stay MVFR for the remainder of the day and much of the night. Guidance is not in very good agreement with respect to how long the rain will hang around across the Midsouth. Will continue VCSH at MEM, JBR and MKL through the night with improving conditions midday. Winds will be northerly at all sites, generally 5-10kt. 30 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$