Forecast Discussion
384 FXUS64 KMEG 111141 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 - Severe weather chances will continue through today. A threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado start this morning and will last through this evening. - An elevated flooding threat continues through tonight, especially across north central and northeast Mississippi, due to recent heavy rainfall and the potential for training storms. - Dry conditions return tomorrow and will last into next week alongside subfreezing temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 A warm, humid air mass continues to remain in place across the Mid-South tonight. Aloft, a cutoff low which has remained over the Southwestern CONUS, is finally ejecting east into TX and the Gulf tonight. In response, a surface low has developed over the Midwest with a cold front extending south into TX. The upper system will drag the cold front east through tonight with storms ahead of it that will reach the area through Wednesday. In the meantime, a relatively stout EML has kept storms at bay through the evening with only isolated, shallow convection that has since dissipated. Therefore, the region should remain mostly convection free until tomorrow morning as the upper height falls arrive ahead of the upper trough. As the trough approaches through tonight and into this morning, the EML that has kept more widespread convection out of the area this evening will lift as upper height falls arrive. Although MUCAPE will decrease through the night, MUCIN/MLCIN will decrease in tandem. Therefore, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may begin to appear early this morning, especially across eastern Arkansas. The front, in the meantime, will have traversed towards the region through the night. A line of thunderstorms is anticipated to accompany the front, which is expected to arrive between 7 am and 10 am. However, there are still considerable CAM differences in the evolution and coverage of thunderstorms through the day. The main disagreement amongst convective-allowing guidance is with regards to the evolution of the frontal boundary through the morning hours. Some models, such as the HRRR and ARW, have the line of storms arriving across eastern Arkansas as early as 7 am. Meanwhile, others have a more broken line that arrives later in the morning. If the line arrives earlier, CAPE will have little to no time to build, being at the diurnal minimum. On the other hand, if the line arrives later, much more of the region will be able to destabilize throughout the day, increasing a severe wind threat. Regardless of the timing, bulk shear values will be above 40 knots as the storms arrive and will remain so through the entire day. So, storm organization is likely in areas that are able to maintain enough instability throughout the morning, which will support a conditional severe wind and hail risk into the early afternoon. By this afternoon, the cold pool behind with the line of storms may make it as far south and east as the Tennessee River and northeastern Mississippi. In this scenario, an uptick in convective coverage is still expected as diurnal heating increases MLCAPE values ahead of the line. If the line remains further west than these areas, additional portions of the area may experience this uptick as well. Forecast soundings from just ahead of the line show that plenty of deep layer shear will remain, with small, weak hodograph curvature below 3 km. Therefore, a wind and hail threat will remain the primary mode of severe weather. However, there is still a conditional tornado risk if the cold pool settles further west, allowing for both locally enlarged low-level hodographs and room across the warm sector for a few isolated cells. The most likely area for this to occur would be across northern Mississippi where SPC currently has a CIG1 tornado risk. One last risk with the storms today will be the risk for localized flash flooding, particularly across northern Mississippi which have experienced flooding in the past few days. PWATs will be in the 99th+ percentile range at 1.50" - 1.75". As the front sags south into the afternoon, oblique 850 - 700 mb moist advection over the boundary and increasing CAPE will promote training thunderstorm potential for a few hours over northern Mississippi. If the boundary is able to escape south and east fast enough, training potential may be offset to the south enough to avoid areas that have seen recent significant rains. The front will clear the region by this evening as the upper trough passes to our north and east. Temperatures will drop into the 30s and 40s overnight and into Thursday morning, with highs only climbing into the 50s and 60s. High pressure and another frontal intrusion will keep temperatures suppressed through Friday. Into next weekend, high pressure will shift east with southerlies returning in response to a shortwave over the northern Plains. There is good agreement that a surface cyclone will develop across the Midwest with a cold front swinging south into the region Sunday afternoon. Moisture return will be relatively poor ahead of the front, keeping instability at a minimum. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible, but the severe threat appears low. Another pattern flip seems likely behind Sunday`s frontal passage as upstream ridging amplifies, promoting more northwesterly flow across the region. Temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be much colder than the one today. NBM probabilities of temperatures below freezing currently max out Tuesday morning above 70% throughout the majority of the region. Temperatures will slowly warm through the week with highs in the 30s and 40s Wednesday, warming further Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 A messy pre-frontal forecast is unfolding this morning. Observation sites across the airspace are coming in with multiple cloud layers, the lowest of which is hovering right around 2.5 kft. Expect these MVFR cigs to stick around most of the period. The main line of convection is moving through central Arkansas as of 11:30Z and will continue trekking eastward throughout the day. Given the earlier solutions of the latest CAMs and the current radar`s evidence of earlier time of arrival, opted to shift the windows of TSRA up for each site by an hour or two. Expect widespread post-frontal SHRA long after the initial onset of TSRA as the front passes. During the FROPA, winds will remain elevated with intermittent gusts up to 25 kts even after a wind shift to north, which should occur right around 00Z. A saturated post-frontal airmass will most likely encourage pesky low stratus to stick around for several hours. There is a high chance (>80%) of MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours. VFR conditions and gusty north winds are on the horizon early Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur through Thursday. However, widespread wetting rainfall due to showers and thunderstorms today will increase fuel moisture, limiting fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD