Forecast Discussion
018 FXUS64 KMEG 150504 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Much colder temperatures will return on Thursday, with high temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees. - A 15 to 30 percent chance of rain exists late Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of another cold front. A few flurries could occur, but no impacts with this frontal passage are expected. - Mostly below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 As of 10 PM, a reinforcing cold front has swept across the Mid- South leaving a cool and quiet night ahead. Perfect radiational cooling conditions will not be present tonight, but with clear skies and slightly elevated winds; the feels like temperatures will plummet for Thursday morning. Brisk, northerly winds will have the feels like temperatures in the teens and 20s by Thursday morning. The powerful arctic air mass will have temperatures struggling to warm Thursday afternoon, as highs will narrowly escape the 30s, particularly across northern portions of the Mid- South. North Mississippi will be fortunate and warm to the low to mid 40s. The air mass will remain mostly unchanged until Friday evening, so expect similar conditions on Friday morning. Friday afternoon, a deep trough stretching a frontal boundary almost across the entire central CONUS will cross the Mid-South Friday evening. Previous model runs favored this passage to be mostly dry, however, it now appears a weak warm front will cross just ahead of the cold front. This warm front will creep a tiny bit of moisture into the atmosphere ahead of the cold front bringing a 15-30% chance of rain, even a few flurries mixed into the forecast. Depending on the model solution, there is a lot of dry air from about 750mb to the surface, so any precipitation would likely be in the form of a light drizzle, sprinkles, and perhaps flurries. The presence of moisture, specifically in the DGZ, will be the determining factor for higher rainfall totals and any increasing flurry chances. The current forecast solution favors the drier low levels, so no snowfall accumulation is expected with less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall expected. The cold front bringing the precipitation will bring yet another, even colder, airmass to the region. Sunday specifically will be the coldest day of the forecast period with highs in the upper 20s and 30s with single digit wind chills. After Sunday, a more zonal pattern aloft will set up and diurnal temperature trends will lead the way. Cold mornings with more mild afternoons are expected as temperatures climb to near 50 degrees each afternoon by midweek. Surface high pressure will dominate and gradually be pushed east ahead of another trough. Precipitation chances remain nil until the middle of next week. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 VFR conditions continue across the region with only a few high clouds currently. Wind speeds have remained a bit elevated, with occasional gusts still over 20 kts. These conditions should begin to subside over the next few hours, with wind speeds dropping back below 8 kts. Northwest winds will remain in place until the afternoon, with winds backing to southerly by the end of the current TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Very low RH values are expected Thursday, with areas west of the Mississippi River hovering around 20%. However, 20-ft winds will remain light enough to eliminate widespread fire danger conditions. 20-ft winds will increase on Friday, but RH values will rebound ahead of a weak warm front and a 10-15% chance for wetting rains across the north. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CMA