Forecast Discussion
416 FXUS64 KMEG 111146 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 546 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday. - There is a low to medium chance (20-40 percent) of showers on Wednesday, mainly for locations east of the Mississippi River. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the second half of the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 958 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 A relatively cool and calm overnight period progresses across the Mid-South with a much drier and cooler air mass continuing to funnel into the area. The week ahead appears to be a bit of a roller coaster on the temperature front, with a gradual warming trend through Tuesday followed by much colder temperatures by Thursday. Aloft, weak northwesterly to zonal flow will present little to no weather for our area for the first half of the week. High temperatures will remain well below normal, spanning the 40s on Sunday, before warming back into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, a weak low pressure system will exit the southern plains with an upper-level trough digging across the Midwest. The combination of these two systems will bring back a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers, with the best chances along and east of the Mississippi River. The vast majority of guidance has this precipitation axis moving out before the colder temperatures arrive. Therefore, wintry precipitation is not expected at this time into Thursday morning. By the second half of the week, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to the upper-level trough axis as it pushes east on Thursday. While all solutions would keep temperatures below normal to end the weekend, the trajectory of this system will play a role in how a potential weather system next weekend plays out. Ensemble guidance keeps the Mid-South dry both Thursday and Friday, but there is spread in the guidance for Saturday and beyond thus keeping forecast confidence low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 A dry midcontinental airmass will bring continued VFR over the next 30 hours. Some wind gusts are expected at Midsouth TAF sites through late morning, as stronger winds above the surface mix down. A relaxing low level pressure gradient will lead to light and variable winds after sunset. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 958 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 No major fire weather concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. While a relatively dry forecast is expected over the next several days, recent rainfall should alleviate any major concerns. MinRH values may dip below 40% for some in the afternoons Sunday through Tuesday, with 20 ft winds approaching 10 mph at times, especially across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. Additional moisture will return to the area on Wednesday, accompanied by a low chance of showers. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB