Forecast Discussion
617 FXUS64 KMEG 031134 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 534 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. - Thunderstorm chances will increase late this week, likely peaking over the weekend. There is a potential for excessive rain and flooding this weekend, particularly over areas along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 This evening`s upper air analysis features nearly zonal mid-level flow aloft with southwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, evening surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary bisecting the Mid-South from West Tennessee into northwest Arkansas. Evening temperatures range from the middle 40s to lower 50s north of the boundary, and 50s to lower 60s south. Overall confidence remains high in a continuation of very warm temperatures into late this week across the Mid-South with medium confidence in exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall this weekend. The aforementioned surface boundary will lift north as a warm front tonight. Short term models indicate rain chances should mostly remain upstream of the area, mainly over southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. Temperatures are expected to remain 15-20 degrees well above normal into late this week with highs in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. Model soundings indicate the presence of a strong capping inversion south of I- 40 during this period, which will keep mainly dry and very warm conditions persisting across the area. Meanwhile, areas north of I-40 will be on the western periphery of the low level ridge with a modest increase in shower and thunderstorm chances, especially towards northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. There is a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon mainly west of the Mississippi River, but weak overall shear and a capping inversion will limit the overall coverage. A shortwave trough will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday bringing an increase in convective coverage north of I-40. Long term model trends indicate southwest flow aloft persisting into next weekend as a shortwave departs into the Ohio Valley and a cutoff upper-level low develops off Baja California. This upper- level flow will favor stalling of an upstream cold front, leading to an increased chance for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will approach the 99th percentile north of I-40 with LREF probabilities indicating a medium chance (at least 40%) for total precipitation greater than 2 inches into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 A quasi-stationary boundary extends along the MS River into NW TN this morning. Low clouds and fog are common north and west of the boundary. JBR will remain LIFR for the next couple of hours before breaking out to VFR as the front lifts north. There is a high confidence (>80%) that an MVFR will develop and cover TUP from 14z to 18z this morning before VFR conditions return. MEM and MKL are expected to remain VFR through tonight, though there is a low chance (