Forecast Discussion
966 FXUS64 KMEG 111156 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 656 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - Benign weather will persist through Sunday. - A warming trend will continue, with temperatures in the mid 80s into Sunday, and upper 80s by the middle of next week. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 00Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge from the Southern Plains to the Southeast U.S. Evening surface analysis shows a weak cold front stretching from the Ohio Valley back into central Arkansas and Oklahoma. Regional WSR-88D radar trends still show a few residual rain showers over extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Otherwise, the remainder of the Mid-South remains dry with 11 PM CDT temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 60s. The aforementioned surface boundary will lift back north on Saturday, allowing mainly dry conditions to persist through at least Sunday afternoon. Very warm temperatures will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Low relative humidity values will continue this weekend around 30 percent. These low RH values combined with elevated winds will result in an elevated fire danger across the area on Sunday. Increasing clouds and a slight increase in low-level moisture may keep the RH from dropping lower than forecast. By Monday, the upper-level ridge will flatten over portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This will result in a temporary but modest increase (20-40% chance) in convective chances across the Mid-South mainly north of I-40 where the ridge will be slightly weaker. Otherwise, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain limited through the middle of next week with near record highs anticipated as temperatures rise towards the upper 80s. Latest long term guidance suggests a more active pattern may eventually evolve over the region towards the end of next week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 A few showers are skirting the northern airspace, but impacts are not expected at any terminals. Light south winds this afternoon will eventually go calm overnight and pick back up tomorrow morning to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Dry weather will persist through the weekend, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent. Marginal fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend due to dry air remaining in place. Fire weather danger will decrease early next week as the weather pattern becomes wet and unsettled. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CAD