Forecast Discussion
263 FXUS64 KMEG 051750 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Record-breaking temperatures will continue through Friday, accompanied by increased humidity. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place through Saturday evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 2 to 4 inches. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 A shortwave will continue to depart the Mid-South today, placing the region under southwest flow aloft. Areas of showers will continue to impact locations along and north of I-40 through this afternoon, though rainfall totals will remain less than half an inch. The bigger weather story through Friday will be record- breaking temperatures as highs climb into the low 80s. An unsettled pattern will emerge Friday night into Saturday as a slow-moving cold front pushes into the Mid-South. A marginal severe weather threat will emerge around sunrise Saturday as a line of storms forms over Central Arkansas. Ahead of this activity, the environment will house SBCAPE of around 500 J/kg and bulk shear of 30 kts. These parameters will provide just enough support to allow storms to strengthen through the mid- morning hours. Damaging winds will be the primary concern. Thunderstorms will continue southeast throughout the day with lingering showers dissipating Sunday morning. Long range guidance continues to highlight severe weather potential by next Wednesday as an upper level low departs southwestern CONUS. This system will slowly trek eastward, oriented just to the south of our forecast area. At the same time, a longwave trough and attendant cold front will approach from the northern US/CA border. CSU-MLP is beginning to pick up on a severe potential as these features impact the Mid-South, mainly between the Tuesday night to Wednesday timeframe. It remains too early to tell specifics with this system, but wouldn`t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center eventually draws a risk area for the Mid-South in future forecast updates. Until then, expect a wet and unsettled pattern with rain totals through the end of next week in the 2-4 inch range. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 Isolated -SHRA continues to move across the northern tier of the airspace, with no direct impacts expected to terminals. Conditions will continue to improve to VFR over the next few hours and remain VFR through tomorrow morning. A MVFR cig deck will spread northward through Friday morning, with cigs likely dropping at TUP by 15Z. Uncertainty remains with the northern extent for the remaining TAF sites, so have not included at this time. SW winds with gusts up to 25 kts will subside by 00Z, with generally light S winds overnight. Wind speeds will begin to pick back up after 14Z, with gusts upwards of 20 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. Surface winds will occasionally gust above 15 mph each afternoon, but daily wetting rain chances will keep fire weather at bay. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CMA