Forecast Discussion
585 FXUS64 KMEG 111324 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 724 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 723 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season from Saturday night through Monday, with apparent temperatures dropping into the single digits. - Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday, increasing rain chances for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 As of late this evening, a weak cold front was crossing over Memphis, Tennessee. The frontal passage will allow for Thursday to kick off on the chilly side with morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thankfully, an alto cirrus deck will hinder a primal radiational cooling setup and temperatures should not plunge much further. The cool morning will rebound rather quickly as a 1022mb surface high will center over the area with return flow settling in by the afternoon. The high pressure system may allow temperatures to warm a bit more than currently forecasted as well as known NBM cool bias. The return flow will continue into Friday ahead of an approaching upper level low and attendant cold front. The air mass behind a reinforcing front is of Arctic nature and will bring a pattern change with the coldest air so far this season. There is a chance of rain (20-50%) generally along and south of I-40 as the secondary front crosses Saturday evening. The location of the showers should prohibit any wintry mix or freezing rain on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The centroid of this air mass is projected to reach 1040mb centered over Iowa by Sunday morning. This strong area of high pressure will bring strong CAA and Sunday morning lows will be sub-freezing area wide. Areas along the TN/KY and AR/MO borders will drop into the mid teens with a brisk northerly wind component. This will make apparent temperatures drop into the lower teens and even into the single digits. Guidance continues to trend with even cooler temperatures, which increases the probabilities of single digit apparent temperatures Sunday and even into Monday morning. Thankfully this cold snap will be short lived as southerly winds will transport warm air towards the region by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will return to near normal as an upper level ridge will begin to center over the Mississippi Valley. While the southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures back to the forecast, it will also bring the return of moisture and increase rain chances on Tuesday. DNM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Confidence is high (90-100%) for VFR conds through the period. Light winds this morning are expected to develop and increase to 8-10 kts this afternoon into tonight at MEM, JBR, and eventually at MKL. There is high confidence (80-90%) that LLWS will develop across the Mid-South this evening and continue overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will gradually veer to the NW on Friday as the front moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1109 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Southerly winds will return Thursday afternoon and bring a brief influx of moisture. The moisture should keep minimum relative humidity values around 40% or greater. An arctic cold front will cross the area Saturday evening bringing very dry and cool air. Minimum RH values beginning Sunday will hover around 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...SJM