Forecast Discussion
544 FXUS64 KMEG 151721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return late tonight into Thursday, with low confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. - Well above-normal high temperatures continue, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through Thursday. High temperatures will climb to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Friday. - A cold front will pass through the Mid-South on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Another warm, spring-like day persists across the Mid-South with temperatures in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. Afternoon high temperatures are still on track to reach the mid 80s across much of the area, with a similar overall feel as our weather conditions from yesterday. As we move into tonight, there is currently a weak upper-level low pushing off the Rockies this afternoon that will move up towards the Upper Midwest into Thursday. This parent system will bring showers and severe thunderstorms west and north of our area this afternoon and evening, with this dwindling line approaching our area overnight into early Thursday morning. There will be very little instability for any of these storms to work with as they reach our area, so severe weather is not anticipated initially. A few CAMs continue to hint at a secondary resurgence in activity by Thursday afternoon as a weak shortwave pushes across the northern half of the area. If storms are able to get going Thursday afternoon, there is a Marginal Risk for some storms to become strong to severe under a favorable environment with decent lapse rates and instability. The main concern with any of these storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. However, given the uncertainty and how the morning convection will progress, the chance does remain low. By Friday, temperatures will surge across the area with another weak shortwave passing across the north half of the CWA. PoPs remain around the 20-30% range, although this could play spoiler to some well above normal temperatures for Friday. Across the area, high temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s. The current record high temperature for Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro is 91 degrees and 89 degrees for Tupelo on April 17th. With the current high temperature forecast, Tupelo has the best chance of reaching or exceeding their record with a small chance that the remaining sites could as well. This will be something worth watching into Friday. Into Saturday, an upper- level trough will exit the Plains, bringing a cold front through the region by the afternoon to evening. This will bring fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (60-80%) through the area during the day and into the evening on Saturday. Given the presence of upper-level forcing and LREF joint probabilities for favorable CAPE and shear generally being in the 30-40% range, strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the frontal boundary moves through the area on Saturday. While the area is not currently included in any risk outlooks from SPC with it being Day 4, would not be surprised if a Marginal Risk is introduced with the Day 3 outlook tomorrow morning. Something to watch over the next few days, albeit the threat does remain low. From a QPF standpoint, the majority of guidance has much of the Mid-South receiving anywhere from 0.25" to 0.5" of rainfall on Saturday. While this is nowhere close to erasing our current deficit across the area, it should help a little for those who have been waiting for measurable rainfall. Behind Saturday`s frontal boundary, a much cooler and drier air mass will move into the region with high pressure building through the middle of next week. Sunday`s high temperatures will finally fall below normal for the time of year, with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s. This temporary below normal relief will be short lived as temperatures will rebound by Monday. However, temperatures will only rebound to around near- normal, with highs settling around the mid 70s to start next work week. With the dominant high pressure, this will keep PoPs out of the forecast through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Gusty south to southwest winds will persist this afternoon under prevailing rain-free, VFR conditions. South winds will remain 8- 10 kts at MEM overnight as the low-level jet strengthens to ~35 kts. This was not included in the TAF given the marginality. Mid-level cloud cover will increase overnight as decaying showers and/or thunderstorms move into eastern AR (mainly after midnight). As this activity weakens, we`re not anticipating much in the way of lightning. Additional diurnal convection is expected Thursday afternoon and evening, warranting the inclusion of a PROB30 for TSRA at MEM. There is also a medium potential (40- 50%) for MVFR ceilings at JBR/MKL Thursday morning. This cannot be ruled out at MEM/TUP, but if ceilings form, they`ll more than likely be < 3000 ft AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 MinRH values will remain in the 35-40%+ range today, with additional moisture returning to the region by Thursday. This moisture return will allow minRH values to rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be around 0.5" at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...MJ