Forecast Discussion
236 FXUS64 KMEG 251807 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 107 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 - Record-breaking high temperatures are expected on Thursday, as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will bring a 20-40% chance of wetting rainfall to the northern counties on Friday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday. - Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 The latest surface analysis places a 1008mb low over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending south into the ArkLaTex region. To the east and west, broad high pressure covers the eastern seaboard and western CONUS. Aloft, a highly anomalous 500mb ridge of high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest with northwest flow and weak troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Return flow has begun across the Mid-South this afternoon with dewpoint temperatures slowly climbing. A warm front will lift north across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Low temperatures will remain about 15 degrees above normal overnight with readings in the low to mid 60s. The anomalous ridge of high pressure out west will build over the region on Thursday. Record-breaking high temperatures are likely on Thursday as readings climb into the mid to upper 80s. ECMWF ESAT shows nearly maxed out 500mb and 200mb with 700mb heights nearing the 99th percentile. The ridge will dampen late Thursday as a deepening shortwave drops down across the Midwest. This system will help push a cold front through the Mid-South on Friday. With limited water through the column, PWATs generally around 1 inch, not much QPF is anticipated. There is only a 20 to 40% chance of a wetting rain (1/10th of an inch) and the highest chances are confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. Behind the frontal passage, modified polar air will move into the region, evidenced by dewpoints in the 20s and temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20 percent range and moderate northeast winds will create an elevated fire danger across the Mid-South. SPC currently has portions of the Tennessee River Valley highlighted for fire weather on Saturday, but the threat appears to cover the majority of the Mid-South and continue through Sunday. Cool conditions will be short-lived as the upper ridge of high pressure builds back into the region on Sunday. A warm front will lift north on Monday and set the stage for warm and humid weather through at least the middle of next week. PoPs will remain in the 20 to 30 percent range each day as highs climb into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Persistence forecast this afternoon with southwest winds holding steady in the 8-10 kt range and some scattered midlevel Cu. Current thinking is these S/SW winds will stay elevated overnight and eventually further increase to 10-15 kts tomorrow mid morning. An approaching cold front will tighten the pressure gradient and promote southwest wind gusts up to 25 kts through sunset Thursday. VFR conditions continue to prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Fire weather danger will remain low as higher moisture and minimum relative humidity values remain around 35-45%. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, but probabilities for wetting rain remain in the 20 to 40% and are confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. Low humidity and moderate northeast winds will lead to high confidence in elevated fire danger across the majority of the Mid-South on Saturday and Sunday. Significant moisture returns early next week as a warm front lifts across the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD