Forecast Discussion
341 FXUS64 KMEG 090526 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near normal by Wednesday. - Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. - Low chance (20-30%) for rain Saturday afternoon and night ahead of the coldest air of the season. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 00Z upper air analysis continues to show an upper-level ridge along the West Coast of the United States while an upper-level trough axis persists over the Central and Eastern U.S. Surface analysis this evening places a 1026 mb surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley. GOES Night/Fog product shows low stratus over North Mississippi beginning to show signs of redeveloping back north overnight. Temperatures as of 9 PM CST are predominantly in the 30s areawide. A gradual warming trend is expected into Wednesday as the surface high moves east and southerly winds return on the backside of high pressure. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s for Tuesday and into the 50s for Wednesday. This warmup will be short- lived as another cold front will drop into the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will bring a slight cool down to the area for Thursday with the cooler air mass retreating back north for Friday. Long-range deterministic and ensemble solutions now indicate the coldest air of the season will arrive across the Mid-South late this weekend into early next week behind a strong arctic cold front. Models have trended slightly warmer over the past 24- 48 hrs as the coldest air is expected to remain over portions of the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this arctic cold front, there is a low chance (20-30%) for overrunning precipitation to develop across the Mid-South from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Most of this precipitation is anticipated to fall as light rain with confidence lower for light wintry precipitation as precipitation departs and the coldest air arrives for late weekend into early next week. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be mostly in the 20s, especially along and north of the TN/MS border. Highs on Sunday will range from the 30s north to the lower 40s southeast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Clearing has progressed south of MEM with VFR conditions prevailing at MEM, MKL, and JBR overnight until MVFR conditions make a return to MEM and perhaps MKL overnight, then erode by mid- morning. TUP will continue to see MVFR CIGs throughout the night with a low chance (20-30%) for a drop to IFR around sunrise and then also eroding up to VFR by mid morning. Gusty winds will then dominate the forecast Tuesday afternoon with gusts at MEM/MKL/JBR approaching 20 knots through the end of the period. Increasing low-level winds is expected to result in the development of LLWS at MEM by late Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds will continue through the remainder of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...JAB