Forecast Discussion
811 FXUS64 KMEG 301147 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 547 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days, with high temperatures generally in the 30s to 40s through Tuesday. - A wintry mix may emerge Monday into Tuesday, mainly for areas north of I-40. Minor impacts to roadways and bridges may occur. - Dry conditions resume by midweek before another round of precipitation occurs by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Some light showers continue across the Mid-South as a cold front pushes closer to our area. This cold front will move through overnight, aiding to clear out any lingering showers into Sunday morning. Sunday will once again be on the cooler side of things, with high temperatures spanning the 40s for most of the area. As has been the case over the past few forecast cycles, a complex forecast will unfold Monday into Tuesday across the Mid-South with the potential for two rounds of wintry weather. While both "rounds" are low confidence at this point, there is even less confidence with the Monday morning round as precipitation may not arrive in time for there to be any wintry weather. Won`t rule out a brief window in the early morning, but think much of the moisture will hold off until temperatures have reached above freezing. As the precipitation spans northward through the daytime on Monday, the bulk of the precipitation should arrive with above freezing temperatures and thus a cold rain for most of the area. The bigger question will be Monday Night into Tuesday, when a mixed bag is on the table depending on where our temperatures fall and how quickly the moisture moves out into Tuesday morning. While the best chances for any wintry conditions will likely remain across the northern tier of the Mid-South, some of these conditions could spread a bit further southward for locations generally along and north of the I-40 corridor. As the precipitation will continue to push across the area, an approaching upper-level trough will rapidly cool things down aloft. As mentioned before, the battle our area will face will be 1) how quickly temperatures at and above the surface cool down and 2) how long the moisture lingers for. ENS guidance favors a more potent warm nose and warmer surface temperatures, which would likely keep rain for much of the area and then a quick transition to freezing rain before a sleet/snow mix. However, the GEFS keeps a warm nose a bit longer after surface temperatures fall below freezing, which could introduce a longer period of freezing rain before a transition to sleet and any potential snow. The good news with both solutions is that any snow/ice amounts would likely stay on the light amount, with less than 0.5" of snow and/or less than 0.05" of any ice accumulations. This will be something to keep a very close eye on as we get more model runs closer to time. Any impacts would likely be mainly confined to bridges and overpasses for locations north of I- 40 with, but if (big if) there were to be impacts outside of bridges/overpasses it would be generally across far NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for some parts of the Mid-South, but this likely will not be issued until closer to the event once more information is available. By Tuesday afternoon, conditions will dry out across the Mid- South with temperatures remaining on the cooler side spanning the 30s to 40s for our high. Subtle WWA will return to the region by Wednesday, with high temperatures climbing back into the 40s to near 50 through the end of the work week. The next system to keep an eye on will likely close out the work week into the early weekend, but there is enough uncertainty with respect to timing that there is very little confidence in the forecast beyond next Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 A surface cold front moved through most of the Midsouth overnight and was on the doorstep of TUP at discussion time. The back edge of post-frontal IFR/MVFR CIGs was near MKL. TUP will have a few more hours before this deck clears. VFR and relatively consistent northerly winds will prevail through tonight at all Midsouth TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 No fire weather concerns are expected through the foreseeable future as minRH values will remain above 40%. Rain will return to the area on Monday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB