Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS64 KMEG 162332
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the Mid-South Tonight
  into Tuesday morning.

- Another very chilly day is on tap for Tuesday with highs about
  15 degrees below normal.

- A return of much warmer temperatures is expected late this week
  into the start of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A deep upper trough is centered over the region. Very cold air is
advecting into the Mid-South on gusty NW winds. 850 mb temps of
-10 to -12C are resulting in surface temps in the 30s. Little
recovery in temperatures is expected this afternoon despite slowly
clearing skies as strong cold air advection continues.

Arctic high pressure will settle over the region tonight. Cold
air stratocu will hang around across parts of West TN and NE MS
through the evening hours before clearing out after midnight.
Temps will plummet deep into the 20s as gusty NW winds subside. A
Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entire Mid-South Tonight
into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will be another very chilly day with highs well below
normal in the 40s. A quick moving upper-level disturbance could
bring a few light showers or flurries to parts of West TN Tuesday
night, but impacts will be minimal. The latest HREF has a 10 to
15% chance of a dusting of snow across parts of NW TN.

The big warm up starts up Wednesday as surface high pressure
slides southeast and S/SW surface flow develops. Upper-level
heights will be on the rise as upper ridging nudges in from the
west. Highs will climb into the 70s by Thursday and lower 80s
this weekend with no precipitation on the horizon. Parts of
eastern AR, north MS, and SW TN have a low to medium chance
(35 to 50%) of reaching 85 degrees on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the period
as high pressure settles over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Gusty
northwest winds will diminish to 4-6 kts overnight and average
between 6-10 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of days
due to Sunday evening`s widespread wetting rain. Much colder
temperatures are expected through Tuesday followed by a return of
well above normal temperatures late this week. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop to 25-30 percent by Tuesday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until noon CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Freeze Warning until noon CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Freeze Warning until noon CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Freeze Warning until noon CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC