Forecast Discussion
873 FXUS64 KMEG 081709 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 - Benign weather is expected to persist through the end of the week. - A significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 80s by this weekend. - The pattern will become unsettled next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms on the rise. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A benign weather pattern will continue through the weekend across the Mid-South. Surface high pressure over the eastern U.S. will result in dry weather and pleasant humidity for the next several days. Light southerly flow around the high pressure system combined with a strengthening upper ridging toward the end of the week will result in slowly warming temperatures that will reach the mid 80s by the weekend. The dry air mass will allow lows to drop back into the 50s each night through at least Saturday. The pattern will be increasingly unsettled starting next week as the upper ridging over the region shifts southeast toward Florida. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will develop over the western U.S. with increasing southwest flow across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strengthening southerly surface flow and a more open Gulf will result in dewpoints climbing above 60F across the Delta on Monday, spreading east through the week. The upper ridging will likely hold on across northeast Mississippi through early next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Monday and Tuesday especially for areas along and west of the MS River. Expect upper-level disturbances in the southwest flow aloft interact with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. By Tuesday there is a small severe weather risk mainly across the Delta, where the LREF has joint probabilities of 30 to 40 percent for SBCAPES greater 500 J/kg and 0-500mb bulk shear values greater than 30 kts. Confidence in this risk is low given the possibility that the upper ridging may hold on longer than expected and that the upper-level disturbances early next week look rather weak. A more significant mid-level trough may lift through the Mid-MS Valley toward the middle of next week with an associated cold front moving through the Mid-South that will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as surface high pressure slides east. A few intermittent gusts up to 20 kts may occur this afternoon, but winds will decrease near sunset. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Dry conditions will continue through the weekend, with minimum relative humidity values dipping to the 30 to 35 percent range each afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will likely not remain above 40 percent until next week, Monday at the earliest. While 20ft winds will remain less than 10 mph through at least Saturday, marginal fire danger concerns will exist due to the ongoing dry conditions and lingering drought impacts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS