Forecast Discussion
017 FXUS64 KMEG 031153 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 553 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Rain chances will affect the Mid-South on Tuesday. Light and steady rainfall will accelerate the melting of ice and sleet across most of the region. - Dry and below normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures dipping back down below freezing each morning. - Dry and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 The latest surface analysis places a 1014mb low over Oklahoma with a stationary front strewn across north Mississippi. Regional airport observations show mainly light to calm conditions across the Mid-South with 5 to 8 degree dewpoint depressions. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics RGB reveals a broad area of cirrus overspreading the region from the west. The aforementioned stationary front will lift north overnight as the surface low takes an east-northeastly track into southeast Missouri. A cold front will move into the region Tuesday morning and slowly track east across the region through Tuesday night. HREF guidance suggests nearly the entire Mid-South will see rainfall, with the highest precipitation totals along and east of the Mississippi River. Above-freezing temperatures and rainfall will promote the melting of residual snow, sleet, and ice across the region from nearly 9 days ago. A shot of polar air is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a 1034mb high builds in across the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will dip 10 to 15 degrees below normal once again with subfreezing temperatures each morning. Thursday will be the coldest with lows dropping into the teens across much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Temperatures will rebound quickly on Friday as a warm front lifts north across the region and upper level heights build. Above normal temperatures are anticipated this weekend as upper level high pressure remains over the region. NAEFS ESAT tables show that 90th percentile 500mb heights will likely continue through the middle of next week, keeping above normal temperatures and dry conditions in place across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Onset of precip timing looks a little slower to start this morning, now likely closer to 15/16Z. When the front finally arrives, conditions will quickly deteriorate. Guidance is in very good agreement on IFR CIGs for all sites except JBR, which will mainly stay on the less saturated side of the boundary. During actual FROPA, intensity of RA will most likely pick up to the point of reduced visibilities, 2SM or less. In addition, strong agreement in LIFR CIGs looked impactful enough to be included in the TAF as prevailing for MEM and TUP this afternoon. After the front passes, guidance wants to scatter ceilings out almost immediately this evening. However, anecdotal evidence suggests these cool season systems tend to hold onto low stratus behind the front longer than guidance wants. Given this historical precedent, opted to keep MVFR ceilings through the overnight period. Winds will generally shift around the horn from S to N throughout the period and stay steadily in the 10 kt range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated this week due to light winds, minimum relative humidities above 45 percent, and wet fuels. Wetting rain is expected Tuesday along and south of I- 40. Subfreezing temperatures will return Wednesday and Thursday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD