Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 160016 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 616 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Updated for aviation discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/ Most of us have at least seen some sunshine through the day today. Clouds are most widespread in Northern parts of West Tennessee, and along the Mississippi River. Temperatures have climbed into the low 40s across most of the Midsouth. Overnight lows will dip into the middle 30s, remaining above freezing across most of the area. Most of the region should see some sun around sunrise tomorrow, but cloud cover will increase from West to East through the day. Surface High pressure will shift off to the East tomorrow, becoming centered over Alabama and East Tennessee. As a result return flow will begin to advect warmer temperatures and higher moisture back across the area. Highs tomorrow should climb into the middle 50s with readings approaching 60 Thursday. Tomorrow night into early Thursday a strong surface low will strengthen as it tracks from Western Oklahoma, along the Southern Missouri Border. Rain will arrive ahead an associated the cold front early Thursday. A quick round of showers is expected, resulting in less than a quarter of an inch of rain. Friday looks dry. The airmass behind the front is drier, but temperatures are about the same since the airmass is Pacific in origin. Saturday looks wet. Rainfall will likely begin Friday night. Rainfall totals through Saturday evening could approach 2 inches across a large portion of the Midsouth. Strong dynamics aloft will likely be enough to result in at least scattered thunderstorms. However, as dew points and temperatures increase during the day, the potential resulting instability may be suppressed by clouds and ongoing rain. Guidance has trended as suspected Saturday night. The GFS is now significantly drier than the ECMWF, shifting the bulk of the precipitation East of the area before the cold air arrives resulting in minimal snowfall accumulation. The ECMWF has trended slightly drier and slightly faster, but still produces accumulating snow across a large portion of the Midsouth. Sunday into early next week look significantly colder and dry. High temperatures may remain below freezing across much of the Midsouth Sunday with lows in the teens Monday morning. Wind chills Monday morning may dip as low as 5 degrees, with the warmest readings only in the middle teens. 30 && .AVIATION... MVFR cigs are finally clearing out. There is still a strip along the Delta into KJBR. This should continue to erode this evening with all sites going VFR by later this evening. Expect VFR conds to continue through most of Wednesday. MVFR cigs will start to move back into KJBR/KMEM toward the end of the period. Generally light southwest winds will prevail through the period. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$