Forecast Discussion


787
FXUS64 KMEG 280527
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1127 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and warm conditions will persist into Saturday with highs in
  the 70s.

- Unsettled weather will return early next week as a front stalls
  across the region with chances for showers and a few
  thunderstorms each day.

- There is a medium chance (50-60%) for heavy rain later next
  week, mainly across areas along and northwest of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

00Z upper air analysis depicts an upper-level trough encompassing
the central and eastern U.S. while an upper-level ridge axis is
present along the West Coast. Evening surface analysis places a
1016 mb surface high over Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland
Plateau. Clear skies, light to nearly calm winds, and low
relative humidity values have resulted in excellent radiational
cooling this evening. Temperatures are now in the middle 40s to
50s after afternoon highs in the 70s.

This ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry
weather to the Mid-South into Saturday night. Overnight fog
potential is much lower than 24 hours ago with short-term model
soundings and HREF probabilities for fog remain very low, mainly
over northeast Mississippi. (less than 20% chance) Temperatures
will be slightly warmer on Saturday with many locations rising
into the middle 70s.

Short term models suggest a series of subtle, but weak shortwave
troughs will move through the weak northwest flow aloft across
the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys Sunday into Monday while
a weak cold front will drop into the area. This will bring a
return of rain showers to areas mainly north of I-40 Sunday
afternoon into Monday with rainfall amounts averaging 0.10 to
0.25 inches along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Long term model trends indicate an active pattern returning to
the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as upper-level flow
transitions to the southwest and a series of shortwave troughs
traverse the region. The weekend front will retreat north as a
warm front early next week. It is then expected to become nearly
quasi-stationary across portions of the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys as a cutoff upper-level low develops over the
Southwest U.S. This front will become nearly parallel to the
upper-level flow and provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Long range ensemble probabilities indicate a
medium chance (50-60%) of total rainfall exceeding 2 inches
mainly over areas along and northwest of I-40 for the latter half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy fog may develop and produce temporary MVFR conditions TUP
towards sunrise. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure over Middle
Tennessee will bring VFR conditions through the period. Light
winds will increase to south winds between 7-11 kts by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Very dry air will remain across the area into Saturday. Relative
humidity values will drop to 30 percent or less along and south
of I-40 as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 70s. 20ft
winds will remain relatively light. Rain chances will gradually
increase into next week as a series of upper-level systems move
through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC