Forecast Discussion
086 FXUS64 KMEG 042334 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 534 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Below normal temperatures will continue into Thursday. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning into Sunday. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend, which will lead to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 This morning`s upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough axis over the central and eastern United States, with an upper- level ridge across the west. GOES visible satellite trends indicate some residual low clouds mostly towards areas near the Tennessee River and portions of north Mississippi. A few mid level clouds are moving across Arkansas and southeast Missouri associated with a subtle and weak mid-level shortwave trough. Late morning surface analysis indicates a 1032 mb surface high over the Upper Midwest, bringing precipitation free weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures as of 11 AM CST are mainly in the 30s at most locations. Cold air advection will result in cooler temperatures this afternoon with highs ranging from the middle to upper 30s north of I-40, and 40s south of I-40. Moderating temperatures are expected into Friday as an upper-level ridge axis over the Southern Plains builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some locations across portions of east Arkansas, north Mississippi, and Southwest Tennessee will approach or exceed 60 degrees by Friday with NBM probabilities for 60 degree temperatures at least 50% chance or greater. A weak cold front will drop into the Lower Mississippi for Saturday, temporarily bringing slightly cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Long range ensemble model trends show the aforementioned upper- level ridge axis building into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys for next week with some locations south of I-40 reaching 70 degrees by early next week. The next chance of rain showers arrives by the middle of next week as an upper-level low over the southwest U.S. will transition into a weak southern stream mid- level trough. Rainfall amounts for next week`s system are anticipated to be light with LREF probabilities for rainfall amounts over 0.10 inch remaining at a 20% chance or less. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Conditions will lower to MVFR across MKL/TUP overnight. MEM could see intermittent drops to MVFR overnight, however, confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites beginning around 15Z. North winds will shift west/southwest tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds in. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 There is high confidence (> 80% chance) in a warming trend into next week. Confidence is low (< 20% chance) for any appreciable precipitation occurring by the middle of next week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 45 percent through Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH