Forecast Discussion
400 FXUS64 KMEG 210551 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected midweek, with high temperatures likely approaching the mid 70s, which is 20 to 25 degrees above normal. - A 30 to 60 percent chance for light showers will return Monday through Tuesday morning as a frontal boundary lifts back north. - Mild conditions will persist through late week, but the timing and impacts of a cold front next weekend remain unclear. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 The latest surface analysis places a 1000mb low over Lake Erie with a cold front extending southwest into West Virginia and back through Kentucky and into middle Tennessee and north Mississippi. A deck of mid level stratus accompanies the frontal boundary in the Mid-South with very light rain noted on radar. The front will continue to sink south through the overnight hours with moderate cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures will dip into the lower 40s by Sunday morning and rebound back into the 50s under abundant sunshine. The front will quickly lift back north on Monday and with bouts of light showers. PoPs remain in the 30% to 60% range through Tuesday morning. Additional shower development is expected on Tuesday as a couple of weak shortwaves translate through northwest flow aloft. An unseasonably strong (588 dam) upper-level ridge will build into the Mid-South by midweek, with temperatures soaring into the near record range each day. High temperatures will approach the mid 70s and lows will only dip into the 50s each morning. Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even though this warmth is at climatological maximums, no record-breaking temperatures are currently expected. Well above normal temperatures will persist through late week as the upper level ridge remains largely intact. LREF guidance is in agreement with the ridge deamplifying by next weekend, but with continued mild conditions. A cold front is forecast to move into the region at some point next weekend, but the details on strength and impacts remains unclear at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals, and are expected to through the majority of the period. A cold front currently bisects the region from southwest to northeast across eastern Arkansas through Western Tennessee and will continue south through this morning. VFR CIGs are currently along and ahead of the front at MEM/MKL/TUP, with intermittent MVFR CIGs possible at TUP through the first three hours of the period. Some rain showers are also evident on KNQA and KGWX, but coverage is too sparse to mention anything more than VCSH. Winds will become northeasterly behind the front, increasing in speed through this morning with CIGs also leaving the TAFs. Gusts of up to 20 knots are expected at MEM/MKL/JBR until around 22z to 00z. Conditions will clear further as winds subside through the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 A 30% to 60% chance of wetting rain will return Monday into Tuesday as a frontal boundary lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all next week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 60% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system remains over the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JAB