Forecast Discussion
355 FXUS64 KMEG 121137 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 637 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - A warming trend continues with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s Sunday and middle to upper 80s by mid week, with near record to record highs anticipated. - Medium chance for critical fire weather conditions on Sunday across northern portions of the region, warranting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 00Z upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge centered over the Middle Mississippi and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Latest surface analysis places a warm front from Kansas City southeast to the East Tennessee and Kentucky border. Temperatures remain warm across the Mid-South this evening in the 70s. KNQA WSR-88D showed a few light returns near the Missouri Bootheel late Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather has persisted across the area into Saturday evening. Another warm and very dry day is expected across the Mid-South on Sunday as temperatures rise into the middle 80s across many locations. These warm temperatures combined with some mixing may translate to minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent Sunday afternoon. A combination of low RH values, elevated winds, and dry conditions will result in an elevated Fire Danger on Sunday across the Mid-South. Dewpoints were lowered towards the NBM 10th percentile Sunday afternoon to account for the drier air. Short term model trends indicate mid-level heights will weaken slightly on Monday as the upper-level ridge flattens over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Short-term CAMs and other deterministic models suggest coverage for any showers will be more likely near isolated to scattered coverage than the higher biased NBM guidance. Thus, rain chances will be lowered to reflect lower confidence in coverage for Monday. Thereafter, mainly dry weather will return as mid-level heights are expected to build back over the Lower Mississippi Valley with model soundings showing the presence of a capping inversion. Near record to record highs are anticipated by mid-week as temperatures rise into the middle to upper 80s across a good portion of the area. Long range models indicate a mid-level shortwave trough moving through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will be monitored in subsequent model runs as long range ensemble joint probabilities for surface based CAPE greater than 500 J/kg, and 30 kts or more shear increase to 35-50 percent. However, better upper level support anticipated to be weakening or remain upstream as convective activity returns to the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Mainly a persistence forecast this afternoon with some cirrus and gusty south winds. The pressure gradient is slightly tighter today, leading to stronger wind gusts up to 30 kts, especially west of the MS River. A decaying system will make its way across the southern Plains overnight, but given the dry air throughout the column, any precip will most likely deteriorate before reaching any terminals. If anything is able to reach the TAF sites, it would most likely be JBR shortly after 00Z. Impacts would remain minimal with no reductions to visibility. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Dry weather will continue on Sunday with winds becoming elevated and minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent by afternoon. Thus, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect for Sunday. Low level moisture increases by Monday with relative humidity values increasing above 30 percent and a return of wetting rain chances for Monday and the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CAD