Forecast Discussion
136 FXUS64 KMEG 311722 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts of at least 40 mph are expected through this evening. - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall starting on Thursday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Mild conditions continue today in the midst of a warming pattern with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Surface southerlies will be somewhat strong today owing to a tightening pressure gradient across the region, especially in the Mississippi River Delta where wind gusts are expected to exceed 30 mph through this afternoon. HREF/NBM seem to have had unrealistically low probabilities of us meeting our Wind Advisory thresholds today, but multiple sites in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have already reached our criteria. NQA/PAH VADs from this morning displayed 1-2 km winds well in excess of 40 mph. With plenty of sunshine in northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel, these winds are expected to mix to the surface. Therefore, we have issued a Wind Advisory through this 6 p.m. CDT this evening for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel. Moisture is also increasing as higher dew points are pulled north off the Gulf. By early this afternoon, uncapped MLCAPE values are expected to reach anywhere from 750 - 1000 J/kg across northern Mississippi. Isolated, convective showers are possible within this region with a low (20%) chance of thunder that should dissipate by sunset. The broader zonal flow over the CONUS will continue through Wednesday along with southerly surface winds and high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s. An extension of the subtropical jet stream will enter the plains and amplify into shortwave trough into early Thursday, traveling northeast into the Midwest. Much of the core flow associated with this system will remain north of the Mid-South, but enough upper lift will overspread the region to produce isolated/scattered rain showers through Thursday afternoon. A second trough, originating from the polar westerlies off the west coast, will swing in behind Thursday`s trough. Similar to the first one, much of the better dynamics will remain well north of the Mid-South with the main driver of rainfall being a frontal passage. Since the front will sweep through the region in a matter of hours and no upper support for much rain ahead of the boundary, QPF values may be on the lighter side. Recent model trends support this as QPF amounts have steadily decreased in the last several forecast cycles, down to 1" - 1.75" from 2" - 3" just a couple days ago. So, at this time anywhere from 1" - 1.5" seems reasonable, but this forecast may change more in future forecast cycles. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible along the front, but severe weather is not expected at this time due to a lack of both instability and shear. Confidence has increased that the front will clear the region by Sunday morning, with cooler and drier weather behind. Temperatures on Sunday will only climb into the 50s and low 60s with Monday`s morning lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Into next week, ensembles are in agreement that the region will be juxtaposed within a split stream pattern with northwesterly upper flow to our north, and zonal, subtropical flow to our south. This will effectively stagnate the surface pattern with high pressure expected to remain into early next week, keeping the dry, cool conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with the exception of TUP, where an MVFR cloud deck will move in early tomorrow morning. There could be some scattered -TSRA across portions of NE MS both this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon, but confidence was too low to include PROB30 mentioning for TUP at this time. As for our winds, gusty S/SW with gusts upwards of 20 to 30 kts will persist through around 00Z, before calling back to 10 kts or below overnight. Wind speeds will begin to pick back up around to after 15Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future, as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 35%. Elevated 20ft winds are expected today across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with winds approaching 25 - 30 mph. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1"-1.5" are expected starting Wednesday, and are to last through Saturday, providing some relief to our ongoing drought conditions. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028. MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CMA