Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 161725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

Skies are cloudy over all but extreme northern sections of the
forecast area early this morning with temperatures ranging from
the mid 40s to lower 50s. Light rain showers are moving across
sections of north Mississippi at this time. The cold front which
moved through the forecast area early Monday is now along the Gulf

A series of upper level disturbance are forecast to move across
Arkansas and into west Tennessee today and tonight. As each
disturbances moves through, there will be periods of rain showers
across the forecast area with the best chance of rain occurring
this afternoon and into this evening. Temperatures will remain
well below normal today with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tonight will also be quite chilly with lows Wednesday morning in
the 40s to around 50 degrees.

On Wednesday, high pressure will start to build into the region
bringing an end to the rain. Temperatures will warm up some
compared to today but will remain below normal with highs in the
mid 60s. Wednesday night will remain dry and rather chilly with
some locations in northwest Tennessee having temperatures drop
below 40 degrees. Thursday will remain dry and chilly as high
pressure covers much of the eastern U.S.

By Friday, a cold front will plunge south from Canada. Rain
showers are expected to develop ahead of the front and spread
across the forecast area both Friday and Friday night, The cold
front will move through the forecast area on Saturday so more
showers are expected mainly during the morning hours.

High pressure will build back into the region Saturday night
bringing another period of dry weather and below normal
temperatures from Saturday night through Monday.




Rain will likely continue through much of the upcoming TAF cycle
as a mid-level impulse shifts across the region. Rain is not
expected to be particularly heavy but may reduce visibility to
MVFR levels for brief periods of time. Cigs should gradually
improve at TUP but will likely stay MVFR for the remainder of the
day and much of the night. Guidance is not in very good agreement
with respect to how long the rain will hang around across the
Midsouth. Will continue VCSH at MEM, JBR and MKL through the
night with improving conditions midday. Winds will be northerly at
all sites, generally 5-10kt.