Forecast Discussion
792 FXUS64 KMEG 032347 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 547 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures 20 degrees above normal. - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly to the north of I-40 Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, the dry weather will prevail during the mid to late part of the workweek. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Friday night and early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 The primary story for the forecast remains well above normal temperatures. A record high of 84 is currently forecast for Memphis on Friday, which would break the old record of 81 set in 2022. The early season heat will arrive courtesy of an anomalously strong midlevel height ridge (586 dam at 500mb) centered over FL. The Midsouth will remain under deep southerly flow around the western periphery of this ridge. A thunderstorm corridor will extend from the southern Great Plains through the mid-MS River valley during the midweek, ahead of an upper trough lifting from the central Great Plains to the upper Midwest. This trough passage will result in a minor depression in midlevel heights Wednesday night and early Thursday over the Midsouth. Showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly north of I-40. The bulk of thunderstorms are more likely near the exit region of a 50KT low level jet over the Ohio River Valley early Thursday morning. Latest guidance keeps a surface front north of the Midsouth during the daylight hours Thursday, while deep layer shear prevails at 20KT or less during the afternoon. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft will begin to impinge on the Midsouth on Friday, as another southern branch upper level trough tracks from the southern Great Plains into the upper Midwest. The latest medium range guidance consensus depicts an open northern branch wave following on the heels of the southern branch trough passage. Relative to yesterday`s guidance, the net effect will be lower heights over the mid-MS River Valley on Saturday, and a more progressive Pacific cold frontal passage. As such, PWAT and forecast rainfall totals have decreased slightly for the weekend. As we enter next week, the PWATs begin to edge back up to 1.5 inches, as the front washes out in deep southerly flow. The pattern for the middle of next week may be active if a closed low near Baja consolidates into a progressive phased trough as some of the guidance suggests. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail tonight, then transition to MVFR conditions Wednesday morning as low stratus develops and overspreads all TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to return by Wednesday afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out. South winds will remain elevated this evening between 6-8 kts at MEM, MKL, and JBR, and light winds at TUP. South winds will increase on Wednesday with occasional higher gusts. Confidence remains low (20-30% chance) for a late afternoon rain shower at JBR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid- South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances will increase late in the week, with areas north of I-40 most likely to experience wetting rainfall. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CJC