Forecast Discussion
163 FXUS64 KMEG 021759 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. - Thunderstorm chances will increase late this week, likely peaking over the weekend. There is a potential for excessive rain and flooding this weekend, particularly over areas along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. . && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Unseasonable warmth and humidity will prevail over the Midsouth this week. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the week, particularly for areas along and north of I-40. This morning`s upper air analysis showed a low amplitude ridging over the Great Plains, downstream of longwave trough over northern CA and southern OR. The low amplitude ridge will lift into lower MS River Valley on Tuesday, displacing the storm track to our north, over the mid-MS River Valley. We can expect more sunshine on Tuesday, which will help drive high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The upper ridge will edge east on Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper trough lifts into the central Great Plains. This will set up an active storm corridor from the central TX into the mid-MS River valley on Wednesday. While the Mid-South remains under the western periphery of the ridge, a few storms will be possible north of the I-40 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Weak deep layer shear (30KT or less) and capping from an elevated mixed layer will limit storm coverage and persistence. The central Great Plains upper trough will lift into the Midwest on Wednesday. This will bring modest midlevel height falls and surface front into the Midsouth, increasing rain chances north of I-40. This front will lift north later in the day Thursday. Depending on timing, we could see a brief window of severe storm chances near this front Thursday afternoon, given deep layer shear nearing 45KT north of I-40. Over the western CONUS, a deep longwave trough will develop over the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday, while the downstream ridge amplifies off the Southeast coast. Similar to a mid/late spring pattern, the Great Plains will be under the main interface between these two synoptic systems, experiencing multiple episodes of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The Mid- South will remain under the western periphery of the amplified ridge, which will help drive temperatures to around 20 degrees above normal on Friday and threaten Memphis` record high of 81. With dewpoints in the lower 60s, convective inhibition will likely be insufficient to rule out thunderstorms over the Midsouth Friday afternoon. While the central and southern Great Plains are under a 15% risk for severe storms Friday, weak deep layer shear (20 KT or less) will limit severe thunderstorm chances over the Midsouth on Friday. The bulk of medium range guidance depicts the western CONUS longwave trough becoming cut-off over Baja over the weekend. As a weak northern branch trough moves into the upper Midwest, the southern branch of the upper jet will drop into the Midsouth, coincident with a surface stationary surface front. This setup will remain nearly static through the weekend and will favor heavy rainfall, given PWAT of 1.5 to 1.7 inches. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 A quasi-stationary front remains draped across the airspace as of 18Z with light SHRAs riding along the boundary. It will lift north as a warm front within the next several hours, taking all the precip with it. As such, opted to transition the precip mention to VCSH as the column is actively drying out and will support very little convective coverage. Due to the messy surface pattern, winds are a bit all over the place this period. Things will eventually settle into a more southerly direction by sunset tonight and pick up to 10 kts or so mid Tuesday morning. Wind gusts are also expected to approach 20 kts throughout the afternoon Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of another approaching system. Ceilings are mostly VFR south of the front, but JBR is locked into the IFR deck on the cool, saturated side of the boundary. Most other sites` ceilings will remain at 5 kft or higher, but JBR is more likely to be up and down throughout the next 18 hours. After the warm front lifts north, everyone will return to VFR as the warmer air filters in and helps dry things out. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid- South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances will increase late in the week, with areas north of I-40 most likely to experience wetting rainfall. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CAD