Forecast Discussion
400 FXUS64 KMEG 171910 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 110 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 - Record-breaking warm temperatures are expected through Thursday, with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal both day and night. - An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday. - Much colder air is anticipated Sunday, with temperatures dropping back toward or slightly below normal into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 The latest surface analysis places an expansive 1027mb high over the SE with a pair of sub-988mb lows to the lee side of the Rockies. A tightening pressure gradient over the Mid-South will keep winds elevated over the next 72 hours or so. NBM probabilities of sustained winds greater than 25 mph and gusts greater than 40 mph remain in the 30 to 60 percent range for a good portion of NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and NW Tennessee each day and night. A wind advisory may be needed if these probabilities continue to increase, especially on Thursday. High and low temperatures will remain well above normal each day and night as a strong WAA regime remains in place over the next 72 hours. Confidence is very high with respect to temperatures. ESAT guidance from both ECMWF and NAEFS has maxed-out 700mb temperatures and above the 95th percentile temperatures at each standard level from 1000mb up to 500mb. Temperatures will run 20 to 30 degrees above normal each day and night with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Several temperature records are expected to be tied or broken through Thursday, with high temperature minimums having the highest potential to occur. On Wednesday night, a Colorado Low will eject in the Central Plains and push a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a marginally unstable atmosphere will be in place, characterized by MUCAPE values between 100 and 500 J/kg. LREF guidance continues to show low joint probabilities (30% or less) of MLCAPE >500 J/kg, MLCIN < - 25 J/kg, and bulk shear > 30 knots. Additionally, QPF probabilities > 0.10 inches are only pinging 20 to 40 percent and mainly south of the I-40 corridor, so confidence remains low in wetting rainfall for a large portion of the area. Nonetheless, the threat for severe weather remains low as does the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. Temperatures will remain mild behind the frontal passage on Friday, with highs still in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The highest chances for widespread rainfall will be Friday night through Saturday as upper level lift becomes enhanced in the left exit region of the upper level jet. Areas along and east of the Mississippi River will have a medium chance (40-60%) of seeing a tenth of an inch or more of rainfall. Much colder air will funnel into the region on Sunday and into early next week. There is high confidence that temperatures will be slightly below normal to begin next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 Pre-frontal MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions will continue across the airspace through the TAF period. South/southwest winds will gust up to 30 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL along a tight pressure gradient through at least tomorrow morning. Overnight, LLWS around 50 kts will move across all terminals as a strong LLJ dips down over the region. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 There is high confidence that fire weather danger will remain low through Thursday as minimum relative humidity values stay around or above 50%. Transport winds will be strong the next couple of days as the pressure gradient tightens in response to an approaching low pressure system. A warming trend will continue through Thursday as strong upper level high pressure builds in. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns late Thursday and continues through the weekend. Colder and drier conditions are anticipated early next week behind another passing cold front. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH