Forecast Discussion

454
FXUS64 KMEG 171125
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
625 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entire Mid-South into
  Tuesday morning.

- Another cold day is expected for Tuesday with highs about 15
  degrees below normal.

- A return of much warmer temperatures is expected late this week
  into the start of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

This evening`s upper air analysis features a deep upper-level
trough over the Eastern U.S. with an upper-level ridge along the
Pacific Coast. Late evening surface analysis places an arctic
cold front along the East Coast of the U.S. with a 1029 mb arctic
surface high centered over the Southern Plains. Clear skies and
this very cold airmass are resulting in late evening temperatures
in the lower 30s areawide.

Temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight with a freeze
expected across the entire Mid-South into Tuesday morning. Highs
in the 40s are expected for Tuesday, which is well below normal.
Short-term models indicate a weak shortwave trough embedded
within northwest flow aloft will bring a slight chance of a rain
or snow shower to areas north of I-40 Tuesday night. Confidence
remains low (028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Freeze Warning until noon CDT today for MOZ113-115.

MS...Freeze Warning until noon CDT today for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Freeze Warning until noon CDT today for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA