Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS64 KMEG 260545
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous
  conditions through next week, particularly for areas in North
  Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by
  power outages.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days.
  Subfreezing temperatures will continue through next weekend,
  which will not help melt any snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A cold night is underway as of 10pm with temperatures generally
in the teens. Wintry precipitation has come to an end across the
area, but the next threat will be brutally cold conditions. Most
of the area will remain sub-freezing through at least Tuesday.
For areas north of the MS state line, there is a 40% chance or
less of above freezing temperatures on Tuesday. Unfortunately,
the probabilities for that same area continue to drop even
further until at least Sunday. One notable area of concern is the
lower end NBM (the 5 and 10 percentiles), highlighting a swath of
sub zero air temperatures across snow/ice packed west Tennessee
and the ice storm warnings for hardest hit areas (Corinth and
Oxford MS). This is very concerning, particularly across north
Mississippi as these communities remain without power due to
significant icing. The probabilities of a sub zero morning
Tuesday across north Mississippi are low to medium (20-40%) and
around 60% across West Tennessee. The NBM is also highlighting
the potential for some freezing fog tomorrow night into Tuesday
morning, but hi-res guidance probabilities still remain low.

The reason for sub-freezing temperatures to continue is due to
the current 1035mb high over the Northern Plains. This area of
high pressure will gradually sink south over the coming days and
intensify to 1040mb+ and center over Texas. Continued arctic air
combined with breezy conditions will make the days feel even
colder with wind chill values sub zero Monday and Tuesday
mornings. Once the strong high pressure settles over Texas, winds
will ease some, but still result in minimum wind chill values in
the single digits and teens.

The prolonged cold will only prohibit significant melting,
delaying recovery efforts across the region. The sun is likely to
peak out over the next several days, which may cause a little bit
of melting. However, as temperatures plunge when the sun goes
down, any melting is likely to re-freeze. Travel will remain
hazardous for several days. Please heed instructions from local
officials about traveling on the roadways. The good news is that
the forecast remains dry for the extended period. The bad news is
that the cold weather looks to be here to stay as the 6-10 day
temperature outlook from the CPC (valid 1/31-2/4) highlights the
entire Mid-South at a 70-80% chance of below normal temperatures.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Flurries were noted at TUP METAR and TWR camera late this
evening. These flurries were borne from an MVFR stratocumulus
deck with thermal profile suitable for snow production. This deck
should pull southeast into AL overnight, with a high-based MVFR
deck in its wake.

To the west, light snow was falling from a midlevel deck based
near FL080, per METARS over AR and VAD wind profiles from KLZK
and KNQA radars. The underlying dry air should sublimate most of
the snow before it reaches the ground. What does reach the ground
should have little to no impacts at MEM or any of the other TAF
sites overnight.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fire weather concerns are minimal
through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB