Forecast Discussion
818
FXUS64 KMEG 220517
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1117 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning
Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations
expected through Sunday afternoon.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop
into the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Evening upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough
encompassing most of the continental United States, with a cutoff
upper-level low located off the central California coast. Surface
analysis places a cold front stretching from Wisconsin back to
the I-70 corridor in western Missouri and Kansas. Regional WSR-
88D radar trends show the trailing edge of rain showers beginning
to depart Monroe County, MS. Late evening temperatures are in the
40s at most locations.
Low stratus and reduced visibilities have developed across the
area wake of the earlier rainfall. Visibilities in many locations
have already dropped down to one-quarter mile. Thus, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for the entire Mid-South through 15Z. The
aforementioned cold front over the Central Plains is expected to
drop into the Mid-South overnight and eventually move south
towards the Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon
The main concern continues to be the development of a significant
winter storm that will develop over the Southern Plains and
spread east northeast into the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys this weekend. Short-term model trends
indicate the cutoff upper-level low will be absorbed into a
longwave trough over Baja California with southwest upper-level
flow developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The 18Z and 00Z
model suites indicate mainly dry weather will persist across the
Mid-South into Friday afternoon. Thereafter, precipitation is
expected to develop as moisture overruns the aforementioned
frontal boundary along the coast in a broad region of isentropic
ascent. Precipitation types and subsequent amounts remain a
challenge, as models continue to wobble the cold air north and
south with each run.
Unfortunately, the latest model consensus has been trending a bit
warmer in the past couple of model runs. As a result, the
precipitation type axis has shifted a bit northwest with model
runs with snow amounts trending down and sleet and ice amounts
trending up. Model soundings show a very pronounced warm nose
aloft in the 850-700 mb layer. This warm layer is sufficient to
melt frozen precipitation aloft, causing it to fall as freezing
rain across all of north Mississippi, and edge into portions of
east Arkansas and portions of West Tennessee near the Mississippi
border. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler north of
this area into West Tennessee and East Arkansas favoring sleet as
the predominant precipitation type with snow and freezing rain
mixing in at times. Areas over northeast Arkansas and northwest
Tennessee are likely to experience snow with sleet mixed in at
times.
An early look at amounts suggests 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches of
ice for north Mississippi. Along the I-40 corridor, expect 2 to
6 inches of snow and sleet accumulation, with less than
0.25 inches of freezing rain. The highest snow totals are
currently forecast for northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel,
and northwest Tennessee for 4-8 inches of snow with an inch or
less of sleet. We are holding off on upgrading the Winter Storm
Watch to a Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning. This
decision will wait until additional model data arrives into
Thursday morning as precipitation type and amounts remain subject
to change. Confidence in winter storm impacts is high (>90 %
chance) with moderate confidence (50-70% chance) in precipitation
types and amounts. Everyone in the Mid-South should prepare for
the dangerous winter weather and expect extremely difficult
driving conditions this weekend. Precipitation is expected to
come to an end towards Sunday night as a 1044 mb arctic high
builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Wintry precipitation
combined with the cold airmass will likely necessitate Cold
Weather Headlines. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from
the single digits below zero northwest of I-40, and single digits
above zero across the remainder of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Dense fog and IFR/LIFR CIGs blanket the Mid-South this evening.
Guidance suggests a slight improvement in vsbys over the next few
hours as a cold front approaches the airspace. Conditions should
improve by sunrise with VFR ceilings prevailing after 14Z. Winds
will become out of the northeast tonight and settle around 8 kts
after sunrise.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Wetting rains and higher humidity values are underway and
expected to last through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry
precipitation beginning Friday night that will last through the
majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
