Forecast Discussion


096
FXUS64 KMEG 221709
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s through
  Thursday. Relative humidity will increase on Thursday,
  supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms along and west of
  the Mississippi River.

- Warm and humid conditions will prevail Friday through early next
  week. There is a high chance for showers and thunderstorms on
  Friday afternoon and evening, with rain chances falling to 20 to
  40 percent over the weekend. There is a low risk for strong to
  severe storms on Friday.

- Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
  on Monday. We continue to monitor this potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A more active weather pattern is setting up for the Mid-South
over the next week or two, bringing multiple opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Currently, shortwave
ridging is present over the Plains with a weak shortwave trough
over the TN Valley. This upstream ridging will build east
throughout the day as a prominent trough digs over the western
CONUS. A few showers are ongoing from the Arklatex area into
southeast AR, but dry air at the surface and large-scale
subsidence will keep this activity mainly to our southwest,
though there is a low chance for a few sprinkles in the delta.
Expect another day in the lower 80s with southerly winds of 8-
14 mph.

Southerly flow will ramp up moisture overnight and especially
into tomorrow, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Thursday morning. This will promote a more robust Cu
field during the daytime hours. The HRRR is indicating a few
showers during the afternoon, but coverage looks to be very
limited given the presence of the shortwave ridging and generally
weak instability.

The pattern change will become more evident by Friday as the
aforementioned western trough moves east into the Plains. While
the strongest 500-mb height falls will remain well to our north,
there will be sufficient forcing for ascent to erode any cap
within a diffluent, quasi-zonal flow aloft. Instability doesn`t
appear to be an issue with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg to
perhaps 1500 J/kg by peak heating. However, deep-layer shear will
be more marginal at ~30 kts. There is a low chance for scattered
showers in the warm sector on Friday morning, but more organized
convection upstream will approach the Mid-South from the west in
the afternoon. Given the weaker shear, it appears more likely
than not that this activity will become outflow-dominant with the
cold pools outpacing storm motion. A low-end risk for a severe
wind gust or marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out on Friday
afternoon and evening, but the greatest risk looks to be to our
west. NBM probabilities for at least 1" of rainfall are in the 40-
60% range with this system, but the LREF (EPS, GEFS, and GEPS)
tops out at ~20%, suggesting that the NBM is suffering from some
QMD bias correction issues and is being influenced by the wetter
GEPS.

Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that the western trough
will stall over the northern Plains through the weekend and into
early next week. The first shortwave trough on Friday will lift
into the Great Lakes by Saturday morning, but we`ll maintain a
broad quasi-zonal flow aloft through the weekend. The next
significant wave will be approaching the Mid-South by early next
week, but this pattern looks favorable for weak perturbations in
the westerly flow aloft to maintain at least 20-40% PoPs for
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will top out in the lower 80s
each day with morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

We continue to monitor Monday`s severe weather potential. Like
the Friday system, the strongest forcing will remain to our
north. In this case, both shear and instability look to be on the
stronger side, but deterministic guidance is hinting at the
presence of a capping inversion in the 850-700 mb layer. Mid-
level lapse rates look to be rather steep, and hodographs show
strong cyclonic curvature. This is certainly a scenario that
needs to be watched closely for severe weather, but there remain
plenty of details that will need to be ironed out before
confidence increases. However, at this time, all modes of severe
weather are on the table, given the potentially volatile setup.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft persists on the backside of this trough,
maintaining low rain chances through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Confidence remains high for VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF
sites while some mid-level moisture moves across the Lower
Mississippi Valley, producing clouds between 6-9kft. South winds
will increase this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts at MEM and
MKL, and 25 kts at JBR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Minimum relative humidity will fall to 25-35% across much of the
Mid-South again today (more like 30-40% west of the Mississippi
River) with southerly 20-ft winds of 8-14 mph through sunset.
This will result in another day of elevated fire weather
concerns. RH will moderate Thursday and Friday as low-level
moisture increases ahead of the next system. A wetting rain is
likely area wide Friday afternoon into the overnight period as
showers and thunderstorms traverse the region.

There remains a low chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday, but the next significant system will bring
another round of thunderstorms on Monday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...CMA