Forecast Discussion
315 FXUS64 KMEG 161853 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1253 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 - A warming trend is expected through Thursday, with scattered showers beginning early Wednesday and high temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s. - A low risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday, followed by a significant temperature drop with subfreezing lows by Friday morning. - Mild temperatures will return for the weekend and are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Temperatures will continue to rebound as southerly winds advect in higher moisture and warmer air. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 40s by late afternoon, or just a couple degrees below normal. A shortwave will traverse the region overnight through Wednesday morning and spawn a few showers across southern portions of the Mid-South. There is a low chance of thunder (20%) as pockets of up to 200 J/kg of MUCAPE advect up the Delta late Wednesday morning. A warming trend begins Wednesday as return flow ramps up ahead of a deepening trough and associated surface low over the Plains. Although cloud cover will be plentiful throughout the day, temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 50s areawide. A deep trough will emerge out of the Central Plains early Thursday morning with appreciable height falls overspreading the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will kick off Thursday morning as a mid-level 80 knot jet moves overhead. Height falls will be quite impressive with up to 50 meter drops across the south and nearly 140 meters across the northern tier. The limiting factor, as with many cool season events, is the lack of instability. Bulk shear will be plentiful, however, LREF probabilities for MUCAPE >250 J/kg remain confined to portions of SE Arkansas, NW Mississippi, and extreme SW Tennessee. Thus, the best overlap of low instability and high shear looks to set up along and south of the I-40 corridor. The threat remains highly conditional, as instability remains less than 500 J/kg and occurs just ahead of the frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a low risk (1/5) of severe thunderstorms is forecast for Thursday morning and afternoon. The front will quickly traverse the Mid-South by Thursday evening ending the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Post-frontal showers will continue through late Thursday evening and taper off quickly by midnight. QPF totals will range from one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Temperatures will tank behind the front with subfreezing temperatures areawide by Friday morning. Upper level zonal flow will set up across the southern CONUS this weekend resulting in mild temperatures. Highs will be in the lower 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Another cold front will move into the region early Sunday and spawn a few showers. The front will stall across the Mid-South as the main parent low departs off the east coast. This boundary will serve as a barrier between cool Canadian air to the north and warm and moist Gulf air to the south. There is considerable model disagreement with respect to how quickly the front lifts back north early next week. Nonetheless, LREF guidance is consistent with the subtropical ridge building east into our area by the middle of next week, resulting in mild late December temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Stratus has eroded along and just to the north of I-40 with VFR CIGs remaining at only JBR/MKL. Continued erosion and/or advection of CIGs to the north is expected to reach JBR/MKL near 21z. VFR will continue to prevail through tonight where a new upper system will bring low-end rain chances (< 30%) to MEM/MKL/TUP. Coverage appears too low to warrant a TEMPO at this range. So, we have opted for PROB30 groups for light rain showers. MVFR CIGs will return alongside the increasing rain chances at MEM/MKL and will remain through the end of the period with VFR CIGs at JBR/TUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will increase substantially on Wednesday as Gulf air moves into the region. A few light showers will occur Wednesday, followed by high chances of wetting rainfall on Thursday. A warming trend will begin this weekend and persist into early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JAB