Forecast Discussion
043 FXUS64 KMEG 171148 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 548 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 - Warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Thursday could see record high temperatures with readings in the upper 70s and potentially reaching near 80 degrees. - An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday. Temperatures will cool a bit behind a cold front Friday and over the weekend, edging closer to normal into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Overnight, fog is the biggest question in the very short term. High clouds should help limit development, but current dew point depressions are generally less than 3 degrees with light winds. Winds should increase through the night. The NBM shows less than a 25% chance of visibility below 1 mile across most of the CWA. Will maintain patchy fog in the forecast and closely monitor observations for the next several hours to determine if a Dense Fog Advisory is needed. Warm and dry weather will continue today and Wednesday as a broad ridge shifts over the Mississippi River Valley. High temperatures today are expected to make it into the low 60s to near 70 degrees across most of the Midsouth. Potentially record setting high temperatures are in the forecast for west Tennessee and north Mississippi on Thursday, when most of the region is expected to be in the middle to upper 70s. Portions of northeast Mississippi may even approach 80 degrees Thursday afternoon. Given the latest NBM Guidance TUP would set a record high temperature of 78 degrees, breaking the old record by 1 degree. These temperatures are the result of strong warm air advection that will begin this afternoon and continue Wednesday and Thursday. The strongest winds will be in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. NBM probabilistic guidance has a 40-50% chance of sustained winds of 25 MPH or higher Wednesday along with a 40-60% chance of gusts above 40 MPH. Sustained winds will be similar Thursday, but the NBM lowers the chance of 40+ MPH gusts to 35-45%. Nevertheless, expect a windy period starting late tomorrow and continuing through Thursday. A Wind Advisory may be needed in this region. The aforementioned broad ridge will shift along the East Coast Wednesday and weak southwest flow will set up over the region Wednesday night. A 995mb surface low will track across the Central Plains into northern Missouri by midday Thursday placing all of the Midsouth in the warm sector of the system. We may see a few showers (