Forecast Discussion
986 FXUS64 KMEG 101137 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Benign weather will persist through the weekend. - A warming trend will continue, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by this weekend and into next week. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Another warm and calm overnight period is on tap across the Mid- South with mostly clear skies and predominantly calm winds at the surface. Surface high pressure, currently centered over the Carolina coasts, will continue to dominate the weather pattern. This will keep mild humidity values and dry air in place through at least early Sunday. Friday, a cold front will dip south, just north of the Tennessee and Kentucky stateline. Due to quasi-zonal flow aloft, very little lift will support precipitation here in the Mid-South, however, a few light showers in the afternoon cannot be ruled out over the Missouri Bootheel and far northeast Arkansas where chances are generally 500 J/kg and >30kts of 0-6km bulk shear with forecast PWAT values around 1.5", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. However, ensembles are really struggling on exact timing of the cold front and severe parameters lining up this far out. For now, we know the middle of next week is shaping up to be more active in comparison to this week. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. -SHRAs will approach JBR this evening along a weak front, but dry air will most likely squash any precip before it reaches the terminal. Otherwise, S/SE winds in the 8 to 10 kt range will prevail through most of the day before going light/variable overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Dry weather will persist through much of the weekend, keeping minimum relative humidity values between 25-30%. 20-ft winds will remain predominantly below 10 mph through Saturday. Marginal fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend due to dry air remaining in place. There is medium to high confidence that elevated fire weather danger will develop on Sunday due to the combination of dry fuels, low to mid 80 temperatures, min RH