Forecast Discussion
082 FXUS64 KMEG 261738 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1138 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected to continue into Saturday. - A cold front will bring widespread rainfall and gusty winds Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week. - The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens and 20s each day early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 An upper-level ridge over the Southern United States is bringing a continuation of dry weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Abundant low-level moisture has resulted in additional low stratus this morning, but is beginning to dissipate especially along and west of the Mississippi River. Mild air continues across the Mid-South with mid-morning temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. A mild air mass will remain in place into Saturday with confidence moderate to high (70-90% chance) of near record to record highs expected into Saturday in the lower to middle 70s as temperatures remain 20-25 degrees above normal. The 12Z HREF indicates a moderate to high potential (50-80% chance) for the development of patchy fog late tonight and subsequent development of low stratus towards sunrise Saturday. Mid to long range models continue to indicate a pattern change coming to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will occur as the upper-level ridge moves east and a longwave trough moves through the region Sunday night into Monday. An associated arctic cold front will bring a return of very cold air to the Mid-South into Tuesday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Rain showers are expected to accompany this front with confidence remaining very low (less than 20% chance) of elevated thunderstorms with poor instability expected. In addition, the probabilities for wintry precipitation and impacts remain too low (less than 20%) on the back edge of precipitation late Sunday night. Cold temperatures and elevated winds will result in wind chill values averaging in the teens and 20s by late Monday. This very cold air mass will be short-lived with temperatures for mid to late next week returning back towards normal with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees with lows in the 30s. Another arctic cold front is expected to drop into the region by late next week with temperatures returning back into the 30s to lower 40s for highs and lows in the teens. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Low stratus is beginning to scatter/thin out at the start of the 18z cycle. VFR conditions will prevail in the next few hours at all sites. Cloud coverage is expected to clear out entirely at MKL and JBR. Winds will become light at these sites enhancing a radiational fog setup. Tempo`d IFR visibilities for any fog development at these sites. For MEM and TUP, another low stratus event is anticipated with a 50-70% chance of LIFR ceilings around 300 ft early tomorrow morning. Some mist may enhance degrading visibilities and ceilings. Similar to today, any clouds should scatter out around 19/20z tomorrow and VFR will prevail once more as southerly flow continues. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Fire danger will remain very low into the upcoming weekend as humidity will remain at or above 60 percent. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected through Saturday. A medium to high chance (50-80% chance) of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by arctic air for early next week. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent by Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM