Forecast Discussion
602 FXUS64 KMEG 041724 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly north of I-40 Wednesday night and Thursday. - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. Near record to record highs are expected through Friday. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 A very spring-like day is in progress across the Mid-South with skies beginning to clear in some locations and temperatures rising into the 70s. To our west, over the Ozarks, a slow-moving low pressure system will continue to pull northeast through Missouri today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the surface frontal boundary will drift in our direction, likely arriving overnight and into early Thursday morning. With the surge in moisture, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening ahead of this frontal boundary, but expect most of any activity to hold off until the overnight hours and into early Thursday morning. While the probabilities are low, if a storm would become strong to severe it would likely be across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, or portions of northwest TN. Guidance shows a corridor of MUCAPE values >1,000 J/kg that will continue through the overnight period with decent lapse rates and upper-level support with the low pulling northeast, favoring at least a small chance for isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail into early Thursday morning. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will slowly dissipate through the day on Thursday, with a mostly dry forecast thereafter through at least the first half of Friday. As far as temperatures go over the next few days, near-record to record- breaking high temperatures as well as high minimum temperatures can be expected at all of our climate sites. High temperatures will remain in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows only falling into the 60s. By Friday, a positively-tilted upper-level trough will begin to develop across the Rockies into the northern Plains, with multiple shortwaves moving out ahead of the parent system. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Friday afternoon along a slow-moving frontal boundary, with these chances continuing through much of the day on Saturday. This timeframe is still just outside of most CAM guidance, but LREF joint probabilities do highlight a 20-30% chance of favorable conditions for severe weather across portions of the Mid-South by late Friday night through Saturday. Severe chances overall look low for our area and will likely be mostly confined to our west, but any subtle shifts in guidance will be something to watch in future forecast cycles. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall either over or just southeast of the Mid-South by Sunday, keeping at least a chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. The best chances will be across north MS and the TN River Valley. Given the lack of upper-level support, severe weather does not appear to be a concern into early next week. As we move further into next week, a strong upper-level trough will move out of the plains bringing our next chance for widespread convection. SPC is already highlighting a 15% risk area for severe weather just to our west on Tuesday, with the system likely moving into the Mid-South in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. There is still considerable uncertainty, but given the time of year this will be something to keep a close eye on into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 A frontal boundary will impact the Mid-South tonight, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances at all sites except for TUP. As the front sags south, IFR cigs and FL020 winds of 40 kts will develop. Conditions will improve by midday Thursday. Otherwise, expect gusty south winds up to 25 kts at the surface. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. Occasional gusty winds (>15 mph) could occur in the afternoons each day. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day, with chances increasing areawide into this weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...ANS