Forecast Discussion
493 FXUS64 KMEG 131749 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 - A low pressure system will bring another round of rainfall beginning Saturday that will last through Sunday. A few thunderstorms are expected amidst widespread rain showers. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. - A pattern change next week will bring dry and warm weather with highs in the mid 70s starting Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Surface high pressure has begun to slide east in response to an upper trough entering the southwestern CONUS and is now centered over the eastern Ohio River Valley. Surface easterlies will still continue through today with mild and dry conditions expected. Highs will reach into the mid to upper 60s. The upper trough over the southwestern CONUS will continue east tonight and into Saturday, developing a surface low over the high plains of Texas which will shadow the upper trough`s motion through the weekend. Increasing southerly WAA ahead of the trough will bring a warm front into the region in advance of the surface low, which will begin to produce rainfall early Saturday morning as it lifts north through the region. This batch of rain will be limited to areas beneath the 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing, which will lift into the northern-most region of the area by late afternoon. Therefore, QPF during this initial 12z Saturday - 03z Sunday timeframe will only be in the 0.1" to 0.25" range. The surface low will continue east, following the upper trough into Sunday morning, which by this time will be centered somewhere over Central Arkansas. Continued moisture advection south of the warm front will have drawn up PWATs from between 1.00" (90th percentile) and ~1.40" (97th-99th percentile). Forcing from both a developing occluded front over northeast Arkansas and a cold front to the south will pivot eastward through this plume of moisture, increasing rainfall rates early Sunday morning. In addition, weak instability (< 100 J/kg) will be present as far north as I-40, increasing to around 500 J/kg across north Mississippi. Therefore, some local, convective enhancement to rainfall rates is possible between 09z Sunday and 00z Monday. However, guidance as the surface low occludes, enough weakening of frontal forcing throughout the day could counteract the influence of instability on rain amounts. Regardless, 6-hour FFG remains above 3" for the entire area thanks to D2 and higher drought conditions, which should limit the potential for flash flooding. When all is said and done, an axis of 1.0" to 2.0" of rainfall can be expected along and just north of I-40 with around an 1.0" across northern Mississippi through Sunday. The system will exit to our east overnight Sunday with high pressure building in across the region Monday. Since the surface low will have begun filling in, CAA behind it will be relatively weak. Therefore, highs on Monday are forecast to be in the 60s apart from a few locations in the Mississippi River Delta. As the week continues, an upper ridge will form over the central CONUS in response to an amplifying, longwave trough over the Pacific Coastline. Temperatures will be allowed to warm further in this regime with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Climate records show that, at least within current guidance, temperatures are forecast to reach within 3 - 5 degrees of the high-max records. So, next week is certainly looking warm and dry to finish out the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 No significant aviation weather concerns are expected through the overnight. A continental polar airmass remains relatively unmodified and supportive of continued VFR. A surface warm front will lift north on Saturday, likely passing through MEM shortly after 18Z. SHRA and associated MVFR chances will increase following frontal passage, but TS chances will remain negligible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will drop to between 25% and 35% today. Wet fuels and light winds will result in low fire danger. More wetting rains are expected this upcoming weekend with widespread rainfall accumulations between 1.5" to 2". Precipitation-free weather will return by Sunday night and into Monday morning alongside a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB