Forecast Discussion
771 FXUS64 KMEG 011752 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1152 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through Friday before a brief cool-down to near-normal over the weekend. - Rain chances return to the forecast Friday and into Friday night. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, mainly south of I-40 in the afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Well-above-normal temperatures will return by the start of next workweek with highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 A pretty benign weather day is present across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, under clear skies. Surface high pressure and upper-level northwest flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today with dry weather and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A pattern change will begin this evening as the upper-level pattern transitions from northwest flow to quazi-zonal. An embedded shortwave will become the predecessor to a surface low pressure system, currently over the New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas border. This low pressure system will begin to push into the ArkLaTex region by Friday morning. An attendant warm front will increase our moisture profile here in the Mid-South, increasing rain chances in the Delta along with it, aided by seemingly isentropic lift. By late morning, forecast PWATs will increase to around 1.15", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year. At the same time, a cold front, currently draped just north of our area, will dip down across the Mid-South tomorrow, giving even more lift to widespread showers across the entire Mid-South as we move further into tomorrow afternoon. South of this cold front, mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi line, a decent swath of warm air advection will give lift to a small window for thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon. However, severe chances are slim to none as this area will be socked in all day and MUCAPE values will struggle to reach 200 J/kg with little to no effective wind shear. Storm total rainfall amounts will generally stay below an inch tomorrow. Behind the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will edge slightly below normal for the weekend with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper-level northwest flow and surface high pressure will quickly build in, bringing dry conditions back to the Mid-South for Saturday. Below normal temperatures will not last long, however, as the upper-level pattern transitions zonal by Tuesday and southwest winds usher in warmer air. Temperatures will return above normal, with highs in the 60s, and remain through at least the end of the workweek. The weather pattern becomes a bit unsettled towards the end of the workweek as an occluded system looks to push into the Upper-Mississippi Valley from the southwestern CONUS. However, we`re a little too far out to iron out the exact details on this next system. Stay tuned... AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 No impactful aviation weather is expected through late evening, as a dry air mass brings continued VFR and light SW winds. A compact upper level disturbance will approach Friday. The leading edge of low level Gulf moisture will likely not reach MEM, and the relatively dry air may take some time to saturate from -SHRA aloft during the late morning. As such, late morning VFR is expected at all TAF sites, though -SHRA will be in the area. By early Friday afternoon, a cold front will drop south of MEM. Post-frontal low MVFR appears likely, as persistent -SHRA occurs over the frontal inversion. A transition to IFR will likely hold off until 00Z, near the end of the 30 hour MEM TAF. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 Minimum relative today will be around 35% mainly south of the Tennessee Mississippi state line. A cold front will bring wetting rain back to the Mid-South tomorrow, increasing minimum RH values above 50%. Cooler temperatures will follow this front. 20 ft winds will remain light through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB