Forecast Discussion
686 FXUS64 KMEG 212347 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 547 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs will range from around 70 to the mid 70s. - A 20 to 60 percent chance for light showers will return Monday through Tuesday evening as a warm front lifts north. - Mild conditions will persist through Friday, but the timing and impacts of a cold front next weekend remain unclear. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 The latest surface analysis places a cold front across Central Mississippi and Central Alabama. Northeasterly winds have brought cooler temperatures and drier air into the Mid-South this morning. Current temperatures range from mid 40s across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to around 60 degrees across Northeast Mississippi. Mostly sunny skies will occur across much of the area today with the exception of portions of Northeast Mississippi, generally from Charleston to Amory, where scattered clouds will continue to move through due to proximity of the front. Don`t expect temperatures to get much warmer than they currently are. The front will quickly begin lifting back to the north as a warm front on Monday. The warm front will continue to lift northward and will be located across Northern Missouri into Central Illinois by Christmas Eve morning. Warm air advection will occur across the area from Monday through Tuesday evening. As a result, chances for showers will occur with best chances occurring east of the Mississippi River. PoPs range from 20% to 60% through Tuesday evening. Temperatures will range from the lower 50s to the lower 70s during this period. An unseasonably strong (588 dam) upper-level ridge will build into the Mid-South by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. High temperatures will approach the mid 70s and lows will only dip into the mid 50s to lower 60s each morning. 2021 was the last time where the area saw temperatures above 70 degrees on Christmas. That year records were broken in Memphis (77 degrees), Jackson (75 degrees), and Jonesboro (75 degrees). Tupelo was 77 degrees and just missed the record by 1 degree. Well above normal temperatures will persist through at least Friday. Models are in agreement with the ridge deamplifying by next weekend. A cold front is forecast to move into the region at some point next weekend, but the details on strength and impacts remain unclear at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 12 hours. A warm front will lift north and will deteriorate ceilings to MVFR and southerly flow will prevail. WAA showers will enhance degradation of conditions with reduction of visibilities and ceilings. There is a high chance (>70%) of ceilings less than 2000ft with guidance heavily favoring IFR ceilings between 16-20z. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 A 20% to 60% chance of wetting rain will return Monday into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all next week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system remains over the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM AVIATION...DNM