Forecast Discussion
834 FXUS64 KMEG 121732 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 - Mild weather will persist through the end of the week with highs in the 50s and 60s. - A low pressure system will bring another round of rainfall beginning Saturday that will last through Sunday. A few thunderstorms are expected amidst widespread rain showers. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Surface high pressure has made its way into the eastern CONUS as a 1027 high centered over the Ohio River Valley. The upper pattern consists of a weak ridge centered over the high plains with northwesterlies across the eastern CONUS and a trough off the Pacific coastline. The Mid-South will continue to be placed along the southern periphery of the high and surface easterlies will continue through the end of the week, allowing for a mild and dry pattern to continue. Expect high temperatures to be in the 50s and 60s across the entire area with lows in the 30s and 40s. Through Friday, the trough off the Pacific Coastline will gradually move inland, and eventually eject from the Rockies Saturday night. As the system approaches Saturday, a surface low will develop across the Red River Valley with a warm front draped eastward through the region, roughly along the I-40 corridor. WAA south of the warm front will bring PWATs between 1.0" - 1.5" (90th - 97.5th percentile) into Saturday, which will isentropically lift over the front, producing rain over the I-40 corridor during the afternoon. As the surface low catches up overnight, southerly WAA will increase with a corresponding increase in rainfall rates overnight and into Sunday as a heavier axis of precipitation that will follow the system east through Sunday. Therefore, WPC has placed a Slight (level 2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Saturday, mainly for the 00z Saturday - 12z Sunday timeframe while the heavier axis of rainfall is ongoing. In terms of rainfall amounts, NBM continues to back the idea of widespread 1.5" - 2.5". However, LREF probabilities of 2"+ of rainfall through Sunday are still at or below 30%, suggesting some uncertainty still remains within the total rainfall from this system. On the other hand, some MUCAPE is still showing up within LREF guidance, which brings mean MUCAPE of 100 J/kg - 200 J/kg as far north as Tupelo and Oxford early Sunday morning. So, some convectively enhanced rainfall could occur across north Mississippi with the potential for locally higher rainfall amounts. Rain will exit the region alongside the surface low. Upper ridging will build behind the system with a surface high moving into the region Monday. Models have still kept the overall CAA behind the surface low marginal. So, temperatures are not expected to cool too much with highs in the 60s through the middle of next week amidst dry weather. Highs could reach above 70 Tuesday through Thursday given NBM probabilities of 70 degrees or higher currently sit at 60% or higher along and south of I-40. Longwave troughing will be building across the western CONUS through the week as well, but ensembles seem keen on keeping any shortwaves emanating from this region north of the region, keeping the forecast dry through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 A dry, mid-continental airmass over the Ohio Valley will continue to bring VFR and light northeast winds to the Midsouth TAF sites through the next 30 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will drop to between 30% and 40% through Friday. Wet fuels and light winds will result in high confidence of low fire danger. More wetting rains are expected this upcoming weekend with widespread rainfall accumulations between 1.5" to 2.5". && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB