Forecast Discussion
478
FXUS64 KMEG 211815
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
- A significant, potentially historic winter storm will impact the
Mid-South beginning Friday afternoon with heavy snow, sleet, and
ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop
into the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
As of 11 AM, a slow moving cold front is over central to
southeast Missouri. This front has been able to pull enough
moisture for stratiform rain along and south of the I-40
corridor. Expect this activity to continue throughout the day as
the front edges closer and crosses the area. The same frontal
boundary is anticipated to stall around Monroe County, MS. This
will keep low-end lingering rain chances across north Mississippi
through the overnight hours into Thursday morning before a
reinforcing front is able to push this frontal boundary out of the
way.
All eyes are on this weekend as a significant, potentially
historic, winter storm sets up. A deep, longwave trough will
absorb an upper-level low near the Baja of California and fuel
moisture ahead of the attendant cold front. Fuel moisture and
lift from the front is going to set up a mixed bag of wintry
precipitation across the entire Mid-South. The LREF and its
ensemble members have all three winter precipitation types
prevalent on soundings. Areas north of the I-40 corridor remain
well below the 0C isotherm, warranting a heavy snow threat. A
generalized area in a line from Forest City, AR, through
Southaven MS, to Salitillo, TN remains the mixed bag of
precipitation. Though, soundings in this area favor sleet as the
primary precipitation type. Models appear to be handling this
sleet threat very poorly and continue to underdo/overhype snow
and ice accumulations respectively. Probabilities of accumulated
snowfall greater than 3" remain above 40% from Corinth, MS and
northwards with highest probabilities in northeast Arkansas.
Probabilities of accumulated snowfall greater than 6" are around
55% or higher from Memphis and northwards. While probabilities
begin to drop to medium (30-50%) along the KY/TN and AR/MO
borders for accumulations around 9", there remains at least a 40%
chance of accumulations greater than 10" in northeast Arkansas.
Any sleet will highly skew snowfall totals across the region.
Most of north Mississippi is at risk for a significant ice storm
as soundings have a deep warm nose from 700-850mb. By the end of
this storm, most of north Mississippi has a greater than 50%
chance of 0.50" of ice accumulation. Even more concerning is
probabilities for greater than 0.75" of ice continue to hover
around 40-45% in northeast Mississippi. Ice accumulations of this
amount lead to impassable roadways, tree damage and weather-
related power outages that can last for several days. Prepare for
ways to stay warm during power outages and ensure you have enough
food and water as travel will be extremely difficult to
impossible.
The aforementioned areas of most likely precipitation types and
amounts are still subject to change. The particular highlighted
areas are favoring the trough taking on quite a tilt as it creeps
up the Delta. The tilt, however, will continue to feed that
moisture increasing PW values well above climatology for this
time of year. High liquid precipitation forecasts will result in
wet, fluffy snow accumulations across the north. The snow will
almost take on a convective profile as it trains across the area
continuing to accumulate snow, sleet, and ice.
By Monday morning, all will dry out, but bitterly cold air will
prevail as 1030+mb surface high encompasses the area. Sunday and
Monday will be brutally cold. An Extreme Cold Watch/Warning may
be necessary as the arctic air governs temperatures early next
week. Snow pack will also prohibit much warming across the area,
meaning chances of above freezing temperatures may not arise
until the middle of next week.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Light showers continue to move across the airspace, with a deck
of MVFR to IFR cigs. IFR cigs will continue to push across the
airspace, with all locations falling to IFR by the afternoon and
continuing into the overnight hours. Visibilities will remain
impacted as well as -SHRA moves through with BR following.
Rainfall should begin to move out by this evening, with low cigs
(potentially dipping to LIFR) and patchy to locally dense fog
developing overnight across the airspace. Conditions will begin
to improve near sunrise, with VFR conditions returning for
everywhere but TUP by mid-morning behind the frontal boundary. As
for winds, SW winds around 7 to 8 kts will continue through 23Z,
becoming light and variable overnight, before settling back to NE
by tomorrow morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Wetting rains and higher humidity values are underway and
expected to last through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry
precipitation beginning Friday that will last through the
majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for MOZ113-115.
MS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
