Forecast Discussion
049 FXUS64 KMEG 311134 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 534 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Chilly mornings will persist through Thursday morning with temperatures in 20s and 30s. - High temperatures will warm each afternoon through the end of this week. Highs will be in the 50s by Wednesday and into the 50s and 60s Thursday. - Shower chances increase Friday afternoon, with a 15 to 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Dry conditions will prevail by Saturday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 High pressure is currently centered over the area under a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Temperatures were able to climb above freezing today, but are expected to drop back below tonight as optimal radiational cooling conditions continue. High pressure will weaken, sliding south of the region Wednesday. West- Southwest winds will accompany this shift in surface pressure, advecting warm air back to the region through the day. Therefore, highs Wednesday are forecast to climb into the 40s and 50s. Similar conditions will be present Thursday with high temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s. By Friday, a decaying upper low will spread zonal winds from the southwestern CONUS out to the Mid-South. The center of the decaying low will travel east through these winds as a low- amplitude wave, developing a weak surface low across the Red River Valley. The low will travel east towards the Mid-South Friday beneath the upper wave and eventually advect enough moisture to produce some rain throughout the day. Rain is expected to arrive Friday and last through Friday night and early Saturday morning. Guidance has struggled to bring meaningful QPF through the past several runs, despite painting large swaths of precipitation over the region for 12+ hours. The primary reason for the lack of accumulation is poor depth of moisture and weak forcing, especially along and north of a warm front draped across north Mississippi. LREF soundings show moisture decreasing steadily above 850 mb, suggesting that rain production will be shallow. Furthermore, the air mass currently over the region will be difficult to overcome, with weak moisture advection at the surface in the days prior. Therefore, areas across the northern two-thirds of the region are still only expected to see between .1" - .25" through Saturday. To the south of the front, there has been a convective signal, primarily in the form of elevated thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday morning. In previous runs, models were in agreement that insufficient SFC - 700 mb theta e values combined with warm upper level temperatures would result in skinny, capped MUCAPE profiles. LREF guidance has hardly shifted from this depiction today, retaining the < 10% chance of 500+ J/kg MUCAPE juxtaposed with 30+ knots of bulk shear. On the contrary, new NAM guidance today shows enough moisture transport ahead of the surface low to produce upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, enough to warrant some severe chances as bulk shear values are above 30 knots. The lack of agreement amongst guidance continues to highlight low forecast confidence regarding convection Friday night into Saturday morning where forecast trends will have to be monitored. If storms are able to form, NBM QPF amounts are currently hovering in the .25" - .50" range across northeast Mississippi. Rain will leave the region by Saturday afternoon, along with the low pressure system. High pressure will have been building to the north of the region Friday and Saturday, and is forecast to bring cooler air to the Mid-South behind this system. Temperatures will cool briefly Sunday with morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s alongside highs in the 50s. Dry, mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the period as high pressure stays in place through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions continue to prevail under high pressure with light southwest winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Low fire weather impacts forecast through the period. Minimum relative humidity values will drop slightly today with the majority of the region remaining above 30 percent this afternoon. Some portions of northern Mississippi may drop below 30 percent, but light winds and recent wetting rains will abate higher fire concerns. Dry conditions will persist through the end of the period, but moisture return will bring minimum relative humidity values well above 30 percent through the end of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD