Forecast Discussion
600 FXUS64 KMEG 010521 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through Friday with a cool-down to near-normal over the weekend. - Rain chances return to the forecast Friday and Friday night. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, mainly south of I-40 on Friday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. - Well-above-normal temperatures will return by mid to early next with highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 High pressure remains across the Mid-South underneath northwesterly flow aloft with an amplified ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over eastern Canada. Winds were able to veer to a southwesterly orientation Wednesday, letting warmer air from the west advect into the region. Similar conditions will persist Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s into the afternoon. A cutoff low off the coast of California is forecast to begin to decay Thursday, spreading momentum east across the Southern CONUS into Friday. The remnants of the upper system will remain embedded in this flow and develop a surface low over the Red River Valley that will eventually reach the Mid-South Friday afternoon. Ahead of this surface low, advection is expected to bring moisture northward from the Gulf and over a warm front draped across the Mid-South. Models have come into agreement that rain will fall in an isentropically-forced band over eastern Arkansas and Western Tennessee starting Friday afternoon, lasting overnight. Rain accumulations have climbed in these areas today with anywhere between .25" and .50" of rainfall expected. To the south of the warm front, convective chances increase from both warm advection and a cold front. However, upper profiles do not appear all too supportive of sustained, deep (thunder potential) convection with MUCAPE remaining at or below 250 J/kg across north Mississippi. Looking closer at forecast upper air profiles, low level theta e values struggle to rise enough to beat out the lack of upper cooling. Therefore, warm mid level temperatures and a lack of upper forcing to cool them will inhibit higher thunderstorm potential. That being said, a storm or two are still possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning, but severe weather is not anticipated right now. Rainfall totals in north Mississippi will depend on the coverage of storms, but as of right now around .50" is forecast for areas east of Oxford. Locally higher amounts could accompany thunderstorms, but are expected to generally stay under an inch. Surface high pressure will increase in strength north of the surface low Friday and Saturday, bringing another shot of cooler air as the low moves to our east Saturday. Lows Sunday morning will drop to near or below freezing, climbing into the 40s and 50s throughout the day. A warming trend will commence into next week as the western ridge flattens and moves east over the central CONUS. Highs will be in the 60s starting Monday, lasting through the end of the period. There is a low (20%) chance for precipitation associated with return flow ahead of a new trough Thursday, but there is higher forecast uncertainty at this point in the forecast. So, expect some changes in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 High confidence exists for a VFR forecast through 12z Friday. Light southwest wind will prevail most of the TAF period, but will increase to around 8 kts Thursday afternoon. Dry weather will continue through 12z but high clouds will increase from the west Thursday evening, gradually lowering to around 15 kft by 06z. Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Minimum RH will again drop to near 30 percent over north central and northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon. Numerous showers will bring wetting rainfall to the Midsouth on Friday, followed by cooler temperatures and moderate humidity levels over the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...MJ