Forecast Discussion
001 FXUS64 KMEG 131749 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to prevail through Tuesday. - There is a high chance (60-80 percent) of rain showers on Wednesday, with the best chances in locations east of the Mississippi River. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the latter half of this week and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 We had another chilly start to our day with morning lows in the 20s and 30s. A 1025 mb high pressure to our south, quasi-zonal flow aloft, and elevated southwest winds has ushered warmer air in today with current temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, warming into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of today as persistent dry air remains in place. Late tonight and into early tomorrow, a pronounced pattern shift will occur as a cut off upper-low pushes into the Lower Mississippi Valley and a positively tilted trough dips down over the Great Lakes region from southern Ontario. At the surface, an attendant cold front, extending across much of the central CONUS, will also begin pushing into the Mid-South. This cold front and aforementioned upper-level systems will all give lift to increased shower chances (30-60%), moving northwest to southeast, beginning early tomorrow morning. As we edge past sunset, rainfall chances (60-80%) increase, especially east of the Mississippi River. Given the time of day the aforementioned front moves across our area, temperatures will likely fall throughout the day, resulting in our high temperatures occurring in the morning hours. This front will be quickly moving with rain chances diminishing shortly after sunset tomorrow. Rain amounts only equate to up to a quarter of an inch. As dry air and strong CAA will quickly follow this front, all precipitation tomorrow will fall as rain. The aforementioned CAA and a quick moving arctic airmass will turn our eyes to cold temperatures Thursday morning with minimum apparent temperatures in the teens and afternoon highs struggling to break out of the 30s across much of the Mid-South. Friday, this arctic high pressure will slide to our east and south winds will usher in slightly warmer air increasing afternoon highs into the 50s. Winds will be elevated with some stronger gusts, up to 30 mph, Friday as the pressure gradient tightens over the Upper- Mississippi Valley, strongest gusts over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. As we move into the weekend, the weather pattern becomes largely unsettled as ensembles are hinting at a closed low and upper-trough pushing in from Canada and over the Midwest. Most of the moisture does look to be capped off, north of the Mid-South. Though we will continue to monitor the evolution of this system. One thing we do know is, temperatures will be pretty chilly this weekend and into early next workweek as another cold airmass and another pretty decent swath of CAA filters in. Cold weather products may be warranted, especially Sunday morning as minimum apparent temperatures fall into the single digits and teens. Stay tuned.. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 A tightening pressure gradient associated with a surface low over the Great Lakes Region will result in gusty south winds at TAF sites this afternoon. Conditions are favorable for LLWS at MEM, MKL, and TUP late this evening into early Wednesday as 2k ft winds increase to around 45 kts. Confidence in rain showers along the cold front late tonight into Wednesday is moderate to high (60-80%), and moderate confidence (30-50%) for MVFR ceilings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will be at or below 40% with some areas west of the Mississippi River seeing values less than 35%. Elevated 20ft winds, greater than 10 mph, will likely lead to an elevated fire danger today. Tomorrow, wetting rain chances increase, especially east of the Mississippi River, aided by a cold front. Moving into the latter half of the week, minimum relative humidity will once again fall less than 40% with some areas around 30%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CJC