Forecast Discussion
984 FXUS64 KMEG 111831 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 - Severe weather chances will continue this afternoon, mainly across portions of southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and north Mississippi. Damaging winds are the primary threat, with a secondary threat for localized heavy rainfall and a low chance of a weak tornado. - Dry conditions return Thursday through Saturday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. - A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 on Sunday night, and area wide Monday night as sub-freezing temperatures arrive behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 12Z water vapor satellite trends show an upper-level low over Texas with a mid-level trough bisecting the Northern and Central Plains. Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from Lower Michigan then back along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and into the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. A warm and moist atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with late morning temperatures mainly in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Regional WSR-88D trends thus far have shown a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms from northwest Tennessee back into east Arkansas. Some isolated intensification has begun across southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi as convection has moved into a slightly better convective environment. Latest mesoanalysis yields 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE, 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kts, and 0-1 km, 0-3 km storm relative helicity values around 150 m2/s2. Latest CAMs suggest the severe thunderstorm threat will be over areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and North Mississippi, where destabilization will occur. Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. Secondary threats are large hail, localized heavy rainfall, and a very low chance for a weak tornado along a small bowing segment. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end into this evening as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing cooler and drier air back to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be below normal on Thursday with highs in the 50s and lows through Thursday night in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for Saturday. Latest long range ensemble solutions indicate another mid-level trough and a secondary cold front moving through the Mississippi Valley late this weekend. This will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms to the area for Sunday afternoon and evening. NBM guidance indicates a very low chance (70% chance) for a freeze occurring across most if not all of the Mid-South Monday night as temperatures drop into the 20s to around 30 degrees. Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week as mid- level heights begin to rise again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 A pre-frontal line of thunderstorms, with trailing stratiform rainfall, continues to move east across the Mid-South this afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are possible with this first wave. A second wave of convection is anticipated along the cold front this afternoon into the early evening hours. Thunder will be more limited during this period as the earlier storms will generally stabilize the air mass. Winds will shift abruptly from the north-northwest behind the front, sustained at ~20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. Gusty winds and lingering rain showers will persist through the evening, along with MVFR ceilings. Conditions will improve late tonight with VFR anticipated area wide by sunrise Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% Thursday and Friday afternoon. Today`s rainfall will increase fuel moisture and mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...MJ