Forecast Discussion
518 FXUS64 KMEG 020436 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1136 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 - Cooler and drier weather is expected through the weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. - Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs creeping into the 80s. - Wetter conditions will arrive on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms forecast each day, ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 A surface cold front just passed through Tishomingo county as of 10 PM with a southern shortwave digging over northern Texas. A moisture axis leading the shortwave and ahead of the frontal boundary has decent shower coverage over southern Mississippi and Alabama. Thanks to the aforementioned cold front, the moisture axis has struggled to climb north and very little precipitation, if any, occurred during the day time hours on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions will continue through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s and morning lows in the 40s and 50s. By Monday, subtle upper level ridging will begin to build from the west causing a slight rise in temperatures back into the 80s, ahead of an east/northeast propagating longwave trough. A stout moisture axis will slowly saturate the atmosphere, resulting in increased PoPs beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Fortunately, due to increased cloud coverage and rain chances temperatures will be in the normal range on Tuesday early May (in the mid 70s to low 80s). The attendant cold front is currently projected to aim at the region early Wednesday morning and sweep across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which is still subject to change as models continue to trend earlier with each subsequent model run. With this boundary, expect a greater than 50% PoP from Tuesday until Thursday morning. In terms of severe weather, the warm sector aligning with the best height falls is favored along and west of the I-55 corridor. There is currently a 40-60% joint probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts on Wednesday for the aforementioned area, which is a good first guess at available severe weather ingredients. There are a lot of moving parts and as timing continues to change, we will monitor the progression of this system. Guidance is in good agreement of cooler and drier air residing behind the frontal boundary, but timing remains uncertain. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 VFR will continue through the next 30 hours. Occasional gusty northwesterly winds will prevail at JBR, MEM and MKL following the passage of a weak surface pressure trough around 18Z. The pressure gradient will become light Saturday evening, with light winds settling in at all Midsouth TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 RH values today will hover near or slightly below 35%, but fuel moisture and light 20 ft winds preclude any fire weather concerns . Humidity and rain chances will increase early next week as a cold front approaches. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB