Forecast Discussion
019 FXUS64 KMEG 032328 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Warm and dry conditions expected for Independence Day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s. - High temperatures and humidity will increase each day through the weekend. Rain chances will remain low (less than 15%) through the weekend before increasing again next week (30%-40%). && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Another pleasant day across the Mid-South with some scattered clouds and temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s. Dew point temperatures have remained in the upper 60s, which is manageable considering it is July. Mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with light winds, which could lead to some patchy fog in low-lying areas. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly mix out following sunrise. A rather benign pattern is expected to continue through the weekend, with upper-level ridging into early next week. For those with outdoor plans on Independence Day, no significant weather hazards are expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s across the area with heat index values approaching 100 by the afternoon, so some caution is advised if you will be outside for prolonged periods. Surface winds will begin to shift back to the south by Saturday, with increasing moisture to the region. This will lead to dew point temperatures returning to the 70s and heat index values reaching back into the low 100s. While most of the Mid-South will not need any heat products, portions of the Mississippi Delta will close in on 105 by Sunday and could need a Heat Advisory. Something to watch into later forecast packages. Upper-level ridging will begin to give way to quasi-zonal flow into next week, with a couple of weak shortwaves passing through by midweek. As such, precipitation chances will likely begin to increase by Monday, with higher chances (50 to 60%) by the middle of next week. High temperatures will likely return to near normal through this period, with highs generally in the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 No significant aviation weather forecast over the next 30 hours. High pressure will keep winds light, and cloud cover will remain limited to high-based afternoon cumulus. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with generally light winds through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB