Forecast Discussion
737 FXUS64 KMEG 241734 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1234 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 - A warming trend will persist through late week with potentially record-breaking high temperatures by Thursday, as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. - A cold front will bring a low (30%) chance of wetting rainfall to the northern counties on Friday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday. - Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 The latest surface analysis places a 1033 mb high over the Ohio River Valley with a 1007mb low over South Dakota and the Intermountain West. Light southeast winds are prevalent across the Mid-South with dry polar air over the region. Aloft, broad troughing is prevalent across the eastern CONUS with a strong ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS. A weak shortwave is analyzed over the Lower Mississippi Valley, and is creating cloudy skies and bouts of sprinkles mainly near the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will top out near normal this afternoon with mid to upper 60s across the region. Elevated fire weather danger will remain in place this afternoon as well, as relative humidity values fall below 30% and 10 hour fuels remain around 10%. Surface high pressure will slide east by tomorrow morning and the strong ridge of high pressure out west will build into the region. ECMWF ESAT percentiles are pinging above the 99th percentile for both 200mb and 500mb heights Wednesday through Friday. This will translate to record heat building across the region. Several high temperature records are at risk of being broken on Thursday as high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s. A fast-moving northern jet stream will drop down across the Plains late Thursday and help push a cold front into the Mid- South on Friday. With limited moisture ahead of the front, not much precipitation is anticipated. LREF probabilities of wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or greater) are confined to areas north of I- 40 and only climb to around 30% across the northernmost counties. The main story behind the front will be cooler temperatures, however, freezing temperatures are not currently in play. Temperatures will quickly rebound this weekend as upper level high pressure builds back into the region. The long range forecast features dry conditions and above normal temperatures with readings in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 VFR will continue through the next 30 hours. Light easterly winds will prevail this afternoon, as a weak surface pressure ridge settles in. This feature will lift east of the area tonight, allowing southerly return flow to commence once the nocturnal inversion erodes Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Fire weather danger will decrease on Wednesday as southerly winds usher in higher moisture and minimum relative humidity values increase to around 35-45%. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, but probabilities for wetting rain remain below 30% and confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will return early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB