Forecast Discussion
977 FXUS64 KMEG 060523 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Record-breaking temperatures will continue into Friday, accompanied by increased humidity. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A marginal to slight risk for severe storms is in place through early Saturday evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 2 to 4 inches. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 00Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge over the Atlantic Ocean with an upper-level trough over the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft is present in between these two synoptic features from the Southern Plains up into the Mid-Atlantic States. Late evening surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary from the Ohio Valley back into a surface low in eastern Colorado, with a dryline extending south into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and West Texas. A mild night is occurring across the Mid-South with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s and surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s. A mild and humid pattern will continue across the Mid-South on Friday with near-record to record high temperatures expected again across the area. Latest HREF guidance indicates a medium to high chance (>70%) for low stratus to develop and spread across the area Friday morning. These low clouds are expected to mix out by Friday afternoon. Short-term model soundings indicate a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during Friday afternoon peak heating across portions of northeast Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Confidence remains low (
