Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS64 KMEG 031802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1202 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest
  chances across north Mississippi. There is a low chance (less
  than 15%) of light freezing rain across extreme northeast
  Mississippi early Thursday.

- A chance (less than 40%) of a light wintry mix is anticipated
  Thursday night into early Friday morning across northeast Arkansas,
  the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee, mainly
  impacting bridges and elevated surfaces.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are breaking up along the TN River and AL border and
across NE MS and SE West TN. We should continue to see
improvement in those aforementioned areas, while cloud cover
further north and west still looks fairly thick and unchanged.
HRRR is fairly aggressive at keeping clouds in through the night,
though the latest trends are resulting in some doubts.

Obviously, cloud cover will impact low temperatures tonight. We
used the HRRR as a starting point and dropped temps in eastern
sections where the cloud cover is showing signs of breaking up.
Some weak overrunning caused by a shortwave passing by to the
north could bring some light showers to north MS early Thursday.
Temps will be right around the freezing mark, so there is a low
chance (