Forecast Discussion
998 FXUS64 KMEG 070340 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1040 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - Benign weather is expected to persist through the end of the week. - A significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures climbing from the 70s early in the week into the 80s by the upcoming weekend. - Marginal fire weather concerns will exist through mid-week due to low relative humidity values and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Another generally calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the 50s. Nighttime Microphysics RGB depicts clear skies overhead, with some high clouds to our northwest that will begin to funnel into the region by sunrise. Until then, temperatures will dip a few more degrees with most of the area falling back into the mid to upper 40s near sunrise. A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for Tuesday, as a surface high pressure develops across the region. High temperatures will reach into the mid 60s to the north, with temperatures reaching the 70s generally along and south of the I- 40 corridor. Into the remainder of the week and really the remainder of the forecast, a dry and warming pattern is expected to persist. LREF clusters largely have very little variability from cluster to cluster, only showing a four degree high temperature spread through the entire current forecast period. This further highlights the confidence in a generally benign and dry pattern through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. High temperatures will slowly climb back to the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures climbing further into the 80s this upcoming weekend. Looking further out, CPC`s 8- 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks both favor above- normal outcomes. So while the above-normal temperatures will likely persist we should begin to see a return in precipitation sometime next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions continue. Light, northeasterly winds will begin to pick up in speed by mid-morning, with speeds generally between 8 to 10 kts. Diurnal wind trends will continue near the end of the TAF period, with wind speeds slowly diminishing into tomorrow night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Dry conditions will continue for the foreseeable future with no measurable rainfall currently in the forecast. Some marginal fire danger concerns are noted through Wednesday, with minRH values remaining in the 25 to 35% range. However, 20ft winds will remain below 10 mph with the exception of a few locations across NE AR and the MO Bootheel Tuesday afternoon. MinRH values will remain generally low through the second half of the week, with values remaining in the 30 - 45% range. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CMA