Forecast Discussion
737 FXUS64 KMEG 041112 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 512 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures dipping back down below freezing each morning. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend, which will lead to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 The latest surface analysis places a cold front over Middle Tennessee southwest back into central Mississippi. Incredibly dense fog affected a large portion of the Mid-South earlier due to a combination of rainfall melting snow, ice, and sleet. However, dense fog has since exited the region as noticeably drier air has advected into the region. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel reveals low stratus creeping south and west from Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Simultaneously, high cirrus is overspreading the region from the west. Surface winds will remain elevated overnight promoting low level mixing. Nonetheless, moderate cold air advection will cause temperatures to dip below the freezing mark areawide. There is high confidence that more slick and icy roadways can be expected for Wednesday morning`s commute. High temperatures will crest above the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon before plunging back down well below freezing by Thursday morning. Slick and icy roadways are likely to be a concern again for the Thursday morning commute. Friday morning will feature another morning below freezing before a warm front lifts north during the afternoon hours. Highs will peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A dry Pacific-origin cold front will pass through the region Friday night and drop temperatures back down to near freezing for Saturday morning. A warming trend will begin this weekend as upper level ridging displaces troughing. This will lead to a dry and warm pattern this weekend into at least early next week. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 50s each day with temperatures above freezing each morning. This warmer pattern will lead to several consecutive days of significant melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow across the region, further improving recovery efforts across the region. LREF guidance suggests that the ridge of high pressure will dampen by mid week next week and operational models are suggesting a more active sub-tropical jet bringing increased moisture to the region from the southwest. The long range NBM brings in a low chance of rain as early as Tuesday, but it is still too early to tell due to current model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 VFR conditions continue for JBR, with MVFR cigs across MKL and TUP. The line of VFR/MVFR cigs continues to hover just east of MEM, but do expect for these cigs to spread westward towards MEM over the next few hours. Occasional drops to IFR with patchy fog will remain possible at TUP through the morning. MEM/MKL will begin to see clouds scatter by the afternoon, with TUP beginning to clear near sunset. Northerly winds will continue through the afternoon, up to around 10 kts, before falling back to around 5 kts after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 There is a high chance that subfreezing temperatures will return for both Wednesday and Thursday mornings in wake of a cold front passage. There is high confidence in a warming trend through the weekend with no wetting rain chances over the next 5 days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CMA