Forecast Discussion
374 FXUS64 KMEG 311720 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Mild temperatures will prevail over the next few days. High temperatures will peak on New Years Day, ranging from the lower 50s over the Missouri bootheel and northern West Tennessee, to the lower 60s over northern Mississippi. - Rain chances return to the forecast Friday and Friday night. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out mainly south of I-40 Friday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. - Daytime high temperatures will cool to near normal over the weekend, followed by a warming trend early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 This morning`s upper air analysis showed a broad longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, downstream of a ridge extending from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest. The pattern will deamplify over the next several days, as the longwave trough lifts offshore. Over the Midsouth, south/southwest winds will prevail under zonal flow aloft, resulting in moderating temperatures through the New Years holiday. An open southern branch shortwave remains on track to pass from the southern Great Plains into the Midsouth on Friday. A surface warm front will return lower 50s dewpoints to northwest Mississippi Friday morning before stalling around midday. Above the surface, low level moisture return will continue through the day, resulting in PWAT values near 1.25 inch across the Midsouth, which is around the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon, especially south of I-40, where surface-based CAPE may reach 150 J/kg. The eastward progress of the southern branch shortwave will slow Friday night, as it phases with a northern branch shortwave dropping southeast from the central Great Plains. These features will combine on Saturday, briefly resulting in another longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. Across the Midsouth, clouds and post-frontal northerly surface winds will keep temps near or slightly below normal over the weekend. As we head into next week, the eastern CONUS trough will lift off the mid-Atlantic coast, as an upstream ridge enters the Great Plains from the Rockies. This ridge will deamplify through midweek but still bring +10 to +12dam 500mb height anomalies over the Midsouth. Above normal surface temperatures appear likely for the early and middle portions of next week. PWB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace with present high pressure. Southwest winds will remain light across all terminals through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Minimum RH will again drop to near 30 percent over north central and northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon. Numerous showers will bring likely wetting rainfall to the Midsouth on Friday, followed by cooler temperatures and moderate humidity levels over the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...AEH