Forecast Discussion
083 FXUS64 KMEG 171757 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1157 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 - Cold temperatures will prevail across the Midsouth through early next week, as multiple cold fronts bring polar air into the region. - Wind chills will drop to the upper single digits in the pre-dawn hours Sunday, from northeast Arkansas through the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee. - Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week, as rain chances return to the forecast. Portions of West Tennessee could see light rain mix with or change to light snow for a brief period Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Cold temperatures remain the primary story for the remainder of this weekend and the early part of the workweek. This cold snap arrives courtesy of a semi-persistent upper level longwave trough over the eastern part of North America. This trough will be reinforced by a series of short wavelength troughs dropping southeast from south central Canada. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the Midsouth late this evening, briefly bumping wind speeds and perhaps bringing a few flurries to northern portions of West Tennessee. Winds across the region will decrease toward sunrise Sunday, but not completely decouple in the relatively well-mixed polar air. By a narrow margin, the coldest wind chills of the forecast are expected in the pre-dawn hours Sunday, from northeast Arkansas through far northern West Tennessee. Cold Weather Advisory criteria in this region is 0 degrees, which is not expected to be reached. 12Z HREF shows 20-30% probability of wind chills dropping as low as 5 degrees over far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel, and 0% probability of dropping to 0 degrees. West/southwesterly return flow will develop Sunday, behind the retreating polar surface high. This return flow will be short- lived, as another polar cold frontal passage is expected late Sunday night into early Monday morning. At this time, it appears the coldest temperatures of the forecast will occur Tuesday morning, as the surface pressure ridge axis settles in and brings light or calm winds. Southerly return flow will develop late Tuesday, as the upper pattern begins to slowly deamplify. This deamplification will not preclude another cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Global model consensus depicts sufficient pre- frontal moisture for light QPF Wednesday night (less than 0.20 inch), Depending on how much moisture lingers behind the front, rain could mix with or transition to light snow Wednesday night over West Tennessee, east of the Memphis metro area. At this early time, accumulations appear unlikely. By Friday, upper level flow will transition to nearly zonal, with 850mb temperature anomalies returning to positive values for the first time in over a week. Mild surface temperatures and moderating humidity will precede returning chances of rainfall next Saturday. PWB && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Northwesterly winds will settle down toward sunset, then briefly increase mid/late evening behind a reinforcing cold front. This front will bring very dry polar air and continued VFR through the day Monday. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Very dry polar air will prevail over the Midsouth through Monday. Despite much colder than normal temperatures, minimum relative humidity will range from 25 to 35 percent through the period. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, but moisture return will lag, resulting in minimum relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent over much of the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon. Low chances of wetting rainfall return Wednesday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...PWB