Forecast Discussion


602
FXUS64 KMEG 041724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly north of
  I-40 Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week,
  accompanied by increased humidity. Near record to record highs
  are expected through Friday.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late
  Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A very spring-like day is in progress across the Mid-South with
skies beginning to clear in some locations and temperatures
rising into the 70s. To our west, over the Ozarks, a slow-moving
low pressure system will continue to pull northeast through
Missouri today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with the surface frontal boundary will drift in our direction,
likely arriving overnight and into early Thursday morning. With
the surge in moisture, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
could develop this afternoon and evening ahead of this frontal
boundary, but expect most of any activity to hold off until the
overnight hours and into early Thursday morning. While the
probabilities are low, if a storm would become strong to severe
it would likely be across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, or
portions of northwest TN. Guidance shows a corridor of MUCAPE
values >1,000 J/kg that will continue through the overnight
period with decent lapse rates and upper-level support with the
low pulling northeast, favoring at least a small chance for
isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail into early Thursday
morning. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will slowly
dissipate through the day on Thursday, with a mostly dry forecast
thereafter through at least the first half of Friday. As far as
temperatures go over the next few days, near-record to record-
breaking high temperatures as well as high minimum temperatures
can be expected at all of our climate sites. High temperatures
will remain in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows only
falling into the 60s.

By Friday, a positively-tilted upper-level trough will begin to
develop across the Rockies into the northern Plains, with
multiple shortwaves moving out ahead of the parent system. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Friday
afternoon along a slow-moving frontal boundary, with these
chances continuing through much of the day on Saturday. This
timeframe is still just outside of most CAM guidance, but LREF
joint probabilities do highlight a 20-30% chance of favorable
conditions for severe weather across portions of the Mid-South by
late Friday night through Saturday. Severe chances overall look
low for our area and will likely be mostly confined to our west,
but any subtle shifts in guidance will be something to watch in
future forecast cycles.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall either over or
just southeast of the Mid-South by Sunday, keeping at least a
chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms into early next
week. The best chances will be across north MS and the TN River
Valley. Given the lack of upper-level support, severe weather
does not appear to be a concern into early next week. As we move
further into next week, a strong upper-level trough will move out
of the plains bringing our next chance for widespread convection.
SPC is already highlighting a 15% risk area for severe weather
just to our west on Tuesday, with the system likely moving into
the Mid-South in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. There is still
considerable uncertainty, but given the time of year this will be
something to keep a close eye on into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A frontal boundary will impact the Mid-South tonight, increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances at all sites except for TUP. As
the front sags south, IFR cigs and FL020 winds of 40 kts will
develop. Conditions will improve by midday Thursday. Otherwise,
expect gusty south winds up to 25 kts at the surface.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future
with minRH values remaining above 40%. Occasional gusty winds
(>15 mph) could occur in the afternoons each day. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day, with
chances increasing areawide into this weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS