Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS64 KMEG 262345
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
645 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- A medium chance for severe storms exists late Monday evening
  through early Tuesday morning. A Slight (level 2/5) Risk to
  Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for damaging winds, hail, and a few
  tornadoes covers much of the Mid-South.

- A second round of severe weather is expected late Tuesday
  evening into early Wednesday morning where a Slight (2/5) Risk
  is in effect across the entire Mid-South.

- Weather will cool off and dry out through the end of next week
  with highs returning to the 70s and low 80s as early as
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Late morning surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary boundary
from the Red River Valley in Texas and Oklahoma to central
Mississippi and Alabama. Mostly sunny skies have prevailed across
the Mid-South with GOES Visible satellite trends showing a
gradual increase in mid to high clouds over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Early afternoon temperatures are mainly in the lower 80s.
Severe thunderstorm potential remains the predominant concern for
Monday night and late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Upper-level ridging will bring rain-free conditions to the Mid-
South this afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s. A mid-
level shortwave trough over the Southwest U.S. will eject into
portions of the Central and Southern Plains tonight. Meanwhile, a
surface low will develop over the Central Plains tonight and will
result in the nearby quasi-stationary boundary lifting back as a
warm front tonight into Monday morning over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Short-term CAMs only indicate low coverage (20-30%) at
best for any showers and thunderstorms as the front passes
through the Mid-South. A very humid airmass will arrive in wake
of the warm front with lower 70 degree dewpoints overspreading
the area. Rain chances will remain minimal at best through at
least mid afternoon on Monday as weak shortwave ridging builds in
across the area.

The very humid airmass combined with daytime heating will allow
moderate to strong instability to develop across the Lower
Mississippi Valley with surface-based CAPE values rising to 1500-
2500 J/kg by late Monday afternoon. A tightening pressure
gradient associated with the surface low deepening and moving
into the Upper Midwest and the development of a low-level jet
will result in sustained winds reaching or exceeding 25 mph over
portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel late
Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Probabilities from the
NBM/HREF indicate a medium chance (50-70%) of sustained winds
reaching or exceeding 25 mph, and numerical deterministic model
guidance support the issuance of a Wind Advisory from 11 AM
Monday through 6 PM Tuesday.

A volatile pre-convective environment will develop across the
region Monday evening as a 120 kt upper-level jet streak produces
favorable upper level divergence over the area. Favorable
parameters including steepening mid-level lapse rates, 0-6 km
shear increasing 45-50 kts, and 0-1km storm relative helicity
values rising up to 300 m2/s2 and short-term model sounding
hodographs showing favorable curvature suggest convective
initiation will be most likely in the form of supercells. Short
term model trends including CAMs suggest the most likely time for
strong to severe thunderstorms to occur across the Mid-South will
be mainly from mid-evening into early Tuesday morning. However,
models do present some uncertainty on whether a pre-frontal
trough will exist to produce any convective activity ahead of the
front along with convective activity becoming quasi-linear by
early Tuesday morning. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are the severe weather threats with this first round of severe
weather.

A secondary shortwave trough is expected to move into the Middle
and Lower Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday night. This shortwave
combined with the redevelopment of moderate to strong instability
and shear is likely to result in a second round of strong to
severe thunderstorms producing all hazards across the Mid-South
late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning as a cold
front moves through the area. Mid to long range model trends
indicate high pressure will bring a short period of dry weather
for the second half of Wednesday followed by a return of rain
chances Thursday into Friday as a shortwave trough embedded
within northwest flow aloft moves through the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The main change in this TAF cycle is the introduction of VCTS to
JBR and PROB30 for -SHRAs at MEM and MKL in the early morning
hours on Monday. The latest hi-res guidance shows a mesoscale
convective system moving SE through JBR, MEM, and MKL through
late Monday morning. If these trends continue, TSRA will be
introduced at both MEM and MKL. MVFR CIGs would also accompany
this activity through at least late morning.

Strong southerly winds will develop tomorrow morning in response
to a deepening surface low over the Middle Mississippi Valley.
There is high confidence in wind gusts up to 30 kts at both JBR
and MEM with lower confidence at MKL and TUP. Another round of
TSRA is forecast to affect all sites tomorrow evening as a cold
front moves into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Recent rainfall and upcoming showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40%
through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft
winds, fire danger is expected to be low through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3