Forecast Discussion
764 FXUS64 KMEG 041149 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 549 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. Near record to record highs are expected through Friday. - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly to the north of I-40 Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail during the mid to late part of the workweek. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Friday night and early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 This evening`s upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge over the southeast United States with the Lower Mississippi Valley on the western periphery of the ridge. The latest surface analysis places a warm front along the I-44 corridor in southern Missouri with temperatures mostly in the 60s this evening. Confidence is high (>70% chance) for near-record to record high temperatures for late this week and medium (50% chance) for heavy rainfall this weekend. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will result in mild temperatures and dry weather across the Mid-South into Wednesday morning. As typical with this spring-like pattern, model soundings indicate increasing clouds by Wednesday morning as low- level stratus develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley and spreads across the area. Most of these clouds are expected to mix out during the afternoon with highs expected to reach the middle 70s to lower 80s. A shortwave trough will rotate through the Middle Mississippi Valley later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, based on short-term model trends. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be mostly upstream of the area. However, a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest Tennessee. Short-term model soundings suggest most of this activity will be elevated. Mainly elevated instability and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates suggest large hail as the primary severe threat. Localized heavy rainfall and damaging winds are the secondary threats. Elsewhere, a capping inversion will keep most areas mainly rainfree into Friday with the potential for record high and record high minimum temperatures to be tied or broken. Long-term model trends continue to indicate lower heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States over the weekend. This will result in lower rainfall totals as a Pacific cold front drops into the aforementioned areas and washes out. Rain chances will increase again towards the middle of next week as a cutoff upper-level low over Baja California is absorbed by a mid-level trough over the Southern Plains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 There is medium confidence (40-60%) that MVFR cigs will redevelop across the region this morning. Low clouds that develop will mix out as gusty southerly winds increase later this morning. A frontal boundary will sag south into northern parts of the Mid- South tonight in response to a mid-level trough moving through the Middle MS Valley. This will bring SHRAs and TSRAs (60% chance) into the JBR area late tonight. Low clouds will likely develop once again Thursday morning across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid- South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances will increase late this week, with areas north of I-40 most likely to experience wetting rainfall. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM