Forecast Discussion


163
FXUS64 KMEG 021759
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week,
  accompanied by increased humidity.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late this week, likely
  peaking over the weekend. There is a potential for excessive
  rain and flooding this weekend, particularly over areas along
  and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. .

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Unseasonable warmth and humidity will prevail over the Midsouth
this week. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the week,
particularly for areas along and north of I-40.

This morning`s upper air analysis showed a low amplitude ridging
over the Great Plains, downstream of longwave trough over
northern CA and southern OR. The low amplitude ridge will lift
into lower MS River Valley on Tuesday, displacing the storm track
to our north, over the mid-MS River Valley. We can expect more
sunshine on Tuesday, which will help drive high temperatures
10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will edge east on Wednesday, as the aforementioned
upper trough lifts into the central Great Plains. This will set
up an active storm corridor from the central TX into the mid-MS
River valley on Wednesday. While the Mid-South remains under the
western periphery of the ridge, a few storms will be possible
north of the I-40 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Weak deep layer
shear (30KT or less) and capping from an elevated mixed layer will
limit storm coverage and persistence.

The central Great Plains upper trough will lift into the Midwest
on Wednesday. This will bring modest midlevel height falls and
surface front into the Midsouth, increasing rain chances north of
I-40. This front will lift north later in the day Thursday.
Depending on timing, we could see a brief window of severe storm
chances near this front Thursday afternoon, given deep layer
shear nearing 45KT north of I-40.

Over the western CONUS, a deep longwave trough will develop over
the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday, while the
downstream ridge amplifies off the Southeast coast. Similar to a
mid/late spring pattern, the Great Plains will be under the main
interface between these two synoptic systems, experiencing
multiple episodes of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The Mid-
South will remain under the western periphery of the amplified
ridge, which will help drive temperatures to around 20 degrees
above normal on Friday and threaten Memphis` record high of 81.
With dewpoints in the lower 60s, convective inhibition will
likely be insufficient to rule out thunderstorms over the
Midsouth Friday afternoon. While the central and southern Great
Plains are under a 15% risk for severe storms Friday, weak deep
layer shear (20 KT or less) will limit severe thunderstorm
chances over the Midsouth on Friday.

The bulk of medium range guidance depicts the western CONUS
longwave trough becoming cut-off over Baja over the weekend. As a
weak northern branch trough moves into the upper Midwest, the
southern branch of the upper jet will drop into the Midsouth,
coincident with a surface stationary surface front. This setup
will remain nearly static through the weekend and will favor
heavy rainfall, given PWAT of 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A quasi-stationary front remains draped across the airspace as of
18Z with light SHRAs riding along the boundary. It will lift
north as a warm front within the next several hours, taking all
the precip with it. As such, opted to transition the precip
mention to VCSH as the column is actively drying out and will
support very little convective coverage. Due to the messy surface
pattern, winds are a bit all over the place this period. Things
will eventually settle into a more southerly direction by sunset
tonight and pick up to 10 kts or so mid Tuesday morning. Wind
gusts are also expected to approach 20 kts throughout the
afternoon Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
another approaching system.

Ceilings are mostly VFR south of the front, but JBR is locked
into the IFR deck on the cool, saturated side of the boundary.
Most other sites` ceilings will remain at 5 kft or higher, but
JBR is more likely to be up and down throughout the next
18 hours. After the warm front lifts north, everyone will return
to VFR as the warmer air filters in and helps dry things out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid-
South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances
will increase late in the week, with areas north of I-40 most
likely to experience wetting rainfall.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD