Forecast Discussion


367
FXUS64 KMEG 020507
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1107 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Unsettled weather will continue through next weekend with daily
  shower and thunderstorm chances above 50%.

- Temperatures remain well above normal this week with highs near
  80 degrees.

- There is a medium chance (50-60%) of heavy rain later this week
  and weekend, mainly along and north of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A stationary boundary is currently draped across north
Mississippi stretching to eastern Oklahoma. A bit of weak
troughing is ongoing across the Central Plains with rain showers
occurring across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
far northwest Tennessee. Very dry air aloft continues to stretch
to the surface acting as a barricade to the aforementioned
showers and thunderstorms. This activity will slowly saturate the
column overnight and leave lingering showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for tomorrow for areas along and north of I-40. The
dry air will hinder accumulation and a quarter of an inch at best
is expected. The stalled boundary will hang around through
tomorrow evening before lifting north as a warm front and pushing
out of the region, leaving the Mid-South warm and dry on Tuesday.

A synoptic shift will take over by Wednesday as troughing over
the southwest US takes over. The deep trough will swell over the
Four Corners region and eject various bursts of energy through
the rest of the week. The deep trough will utilize the moisture
near the aforementioned stalled boundary to our north to continue
to fuel itself. The location of the boundary will keep highest
rain chances along and north of I-40. The LREF is showing a
signal of the potential for at least some strong storms on
Wednesday afternoon and evening on the warm frontal`s initial
ascent. Joint probabilities for strong to severe thunderstorms (
>500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30 kts of shear) max out at around 35%
Wednesday evening. While these probabilities are not high, it is
a signal for at least some strong storm potential as opposed to
severe.  Thursday and Friday should remain just general shower
and thunderstorm conditions with modest precipitation. Also from
the LREF, probabilities of accumulated rainfall from Wednesday to
Friday morning exceeding 1" is 20-40% along and north of I-
40 with a 55% chance on the AR/MO and TN/KY borders.

The weekend ahead also appears to be a washout, but a bit more
unsettled. A strong cold frontal boundary will take aim. With
temperatures near or exceeding 80 degrees, steep height falls,
and climatologically high PW values; efficient rainfall producing
thunderstorms are likely to occur Saturday. Given the estimated
shear with the front as well as the intended negative tilt of its
parent trough, we will be monitoring for a severe weather threat.
Models continue to disagree, as probabilities for severe weather
have decreased from 24 hours ago, but "a low probability minor
severe weather threat is still being monitored next weekend.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Additional rain showers are anticipated to develop overnight and
affect areas mostly along and north of I-40 into Monday morning.
The PROB30 for showers remains in the forecast for MEM and MKL
though with lower confidence in coverage and occurrence. JBR is
expected to remain on the northern side of a quasi-stationary
boundary with probabilities for MVFR ceilings 60 percent or
greater, and a 50 percent chance for temporary IFR ceilings
Monday morning, then improving to VFR conditions later Monday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Rain chances will persist through the week as a series of upper-
level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys. Early on in the week, areas south of I-40 could still be
impacted by RH values dipping below 40%. Wetting rain conditions
are expected areawide starting Wednesday for the next several
days.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC