Forecast Discussion
637 FXUS64 KMEG 062348 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 548 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A marginal to slight risk for severe storms is in place with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 An area of midlevel clouds continues to move across the Mid-South today, with satellite imagery depicting clearing over portions of north Mississippi and west Tennessee. Due to the prolonged cloud cover, temperatures are running a few degrees below the forecast. However, gradually clearing skies over the next few hours will allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Record-breaking highs are anticipated this afternoon across the majority of the Mid-South. A few stray showers and thunderstorms may form over north Mississippi this afternoon, but any activity will be isolated in nature and sub-severe. The greater chance for showers and thunderstorms emerges late tonight into Saturday as a cold front slowly approaches the Mid- South. The latest CAMs remain in relatively good agreement on a line of storms developing over central Arkansas and pushing eastward by sunrise. Ahead of this line, the severe weather parameter space will feature more than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE, bulk shear around 30 kts, and midlevel lapse rates of 6 C/km. While not an overly impressive setup, these ingredients provide just enough support to encourage upscale growth of storms. In addition, a modest wind profile and SRH above 200 m2/s2 will encourage tornadic circulations within the line. The primary concern tomorrow will be damaging winds with a secondary threat of spin-up tornadoes. Both instability and shear will increase through tomorrow afternoon, resulting in a severe weather threat throughout the day. A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place tomorrow. In addition to severe weather, flooding concerns are on the rise for Saturday. Precipitable water values will surge to the 99th percentile by sunrise. In addition, latest guidance suggests training storms over portions of north Mississippi, particularly in the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will be highest in the Mississippi Delta, where upwards of 3 inches of rain may fall through midday Sunday. Flooding of low lying areas is anticipated, along with creeks rising to bankfull. Conditions will finally dry out Sunday afternoon, leaving behind highs in the low to mid 60s. Next week`s forecast will center around the development of an upper level low over Baja California. Previous forecast solutions suggested a higher chance of severe weather in the Tuesday / Wednesday timeframe as this system approaches. However, both the GFS and ECMWF are now favoring a more southerly track of the low with the center moving over the Gulf Coast. This would limit the severe potential in the Mid-South. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall the potential is on the decline. Regardless of severe storm development next week, rain chances remain in the forecast. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain may fall through early Thursday. The end of next week looks to be dry as a cold front moves through the area. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Primary concern remains timing of TSRA on Saturday. Relative to the 12Z CAM consensus, the last several HRRR runs have slowed the arrival timing of a BKN/SLD line of TSRA. The 00Z TAFs timing are a blend of the slower HRRR guidance and previous TAFs, maintaining a three hour window of wind gust and VIS impacts associated with the line passage. This window may be narrowed pending 00Z CAM guidance. In any case, there will likely be some trailing TS in behind the line on Saturday, but this should be less impactful than the primary line of TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Daily wetting rain chances are anticipated through Sunday, limiting the fire weather potential this period. In addition, MinRH will remain above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB