Forecast Discussion

847
FXUS64 KMEG 280543
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Gusty winds, between 35 to 45 mph, are expected across the Mid-
  South on Sunday through Sunday Night. A line of showers will
  move through the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

- A significant temperature drop is expected on Monday and
  Tuesday. The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop
  wind chill values into the teens and 20s both mornings.

- Chilly mornings will continue through the rest of the workweek,
  but afternoon temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s
  beyond mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

A thick, low stratus shield continues to push across the Mid-
South tonight. A few pockets of patchy fog are spreading across
north Mississippi, where current satellite trends display breaks
in the stratus shield, aided by another night of adequate
radiational cooling. Fog is not expected to become dense
overnight as yesterday`s warm front has lifted north of the Mid-
South and stalled over the Ohio River Valley.

The latest 500mb analysis depicts that this past week`s
persistent ridge has finally begun to break down east, past our
area. Southwest flow ahead of a strong cold front has begun to
build in. Southwest flow will result in another well above normal
day with temperatures in the 70s. As we move into the overnight
hours, winds will begin to pick up with gusts up to 20 mph as the
pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned front begins to
tighten. As we move through Sunday, the pressure gradient will
continue to tighten further increasing gusts up to 45 mph. The
latest HREF guidance is indicating >70% chance of wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph in areas along and west of the Mississippi
River. As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas
beginning at noon on Sunday and running through midnight. Ahead
of this cold front, shower chances will also begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon, from northwest to southeast. Rainfall
amounts equate up to a quarter of an inch for storm total
rainfall, with the greatest amounts across West Tennessee. Severe
weather is not expected tomorrow as instability will be nearly
nonexistent. HREF guidance has 028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     MSZ001-007-010.

TN...Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     TNZ001-002-019-048-049-088.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA