Forecast Discussion
854 FXUS64 KMEG 091744 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 - A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place Monday afternoon, mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a threat for very large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds. - The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry conditions persisting into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 GOES East Low Level Water Vapor channel reveals a compact shortwave traversing central Arkansas with a deep cutoff upper low over the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, the latest analysis places a NW to SE oriented warm front from Corning, AR southeast through Memphis, TN, and back into Tupelo, MS. The latest GOES East Visible Imagery shows some clearing behind the front, mainly over SE Arkansas and portions of N Mississippi. In that area, the latest RAP mesoanalysis data shows an uncapped atmosphere with both moderate instability (1200 J/kg of MUCAPE) and moderate shear (0-6 km shear 35-40 knots) in place. This environment supports mainly organized multi-cells and potential bowing structures. Lapse rates aloft are quite impressive with values above 7.5 C/km between 700 and 500mb. If cells can remain semi- discrete, large hail up to 2 inches is likely, otherwise organized cold pools will become the main mode with damaging winds and marginally severe hail. The latest KNQA radar scan reveals scattered WAA showers across the area with a single non-severe storm moving into eastern Arkansas. To the west, multi-cellular and semi-discrete cells have been prevalent this morning from the ArkLaTex into the Little Rock, AR metro. Storm motion has been nearly due east with storm speeds as high as 55 mph. One report of nickel to quarter size hail has been reported thus far. There is some evidence of an organizing cold pool to the northeast of the Little Rock, AR metro, but storms have remained mostly elevated and sub-severe thus far. Downstream and over the Mid-South, the atmosphere will continue to destabilize over the next 1 to 3 hours. The current SPC outlook covers the threat well, with a Slight Risk (2/5) located along the TN/MS stateline and to the south. There is a CIG1 for large hail 2+ inches, which is well supported by steep lapse rates aloft and moderate deep layer shear. The latest HRRR guidance suggests that instability will remain moderate over the area as MLCAPE values climb to as high as 1500 J/kg over portions of north Mississippi. Looking more closely at the soundings, storms could become more surface-based, which would enhance the damaging wind threat. Storms will affect areas along and south of I-40 through about 8PM this evening. We will see a break from showers and thunderstorms for about 24 hours as upper level heights build in wake of the passing shortwave. Moderate WAA will persist on Tuesday as a weakening surface low tracks across Kansas City, MO during the day. Out to the west, the aforementioned cutoff low will begin to lift northeast and open into a positively-tilted longwave trough as it moves into west Texas late Tuesday. Weak perturbations, embedded in deep southwesterly flow aloft, will rotate into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night. With moderate instability, a strengthening LLJ, and moderate shear in place, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over central Arkansas. There is a 30% chance that these strong to severe storms move into northeast Arkansas late Tuesday night. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The threat should diminish early Wednesday morning. Active weather will continue again on Wednesday as we remain in a moderately unstable airmass. A split-flow upper level pattern will be prevalent over the Plains with a potential leading shortwave moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley early Wednesday morning. Significant uncertainty still remains as heavy cloud cover and potentially ongoing convection occurs in the warm sector. Nonetheless, a high shear and low to moderate instability setup will occur. The highest chance for severe thunderstorms will be mainly east of the Mississippi River, where instability will be maximized by early afternoon and before the cold front pushes through the area. This is supported well by the REFS guidance, as it paints an instability axis along the east of the Mississippi River with up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE with up to 60 knots of bulk shear on hand. Uncertainty remains medi than expected at this time. A trailing cold front will push through the entire area late Wednesday ending the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. A brief cooldown is expected on Thursday with highs mainly in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will rebound by late week as broad surface high pressure moves into the region. Above normal temperatures will persist into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 A warm front lifting north is supporting TSRA development across the airspace. Convection will continue to move east- southeast through the taf period and end at the terminals shortly after 00z. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lowering of CIGs and visibility is expected at all terminals when thunderstorms move over the field. Once rainfall comes to an end, MVFR and IFR ceilings will persist through daybreak. Improvement of cloud heights will occur, but MVFR ceilings will still prevail after 12z. Gusty southerly winds will prevail again tomorrow afternoon. TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED. TUP METAR is missing some weather elements. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this week. However, widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...DNM