Forecast Discussion
209 FXUS64 KMEG 101719 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1119 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 - Rain chances return tonight with showers and a few rumbles of thunder becoming more widespread after midnight. - A brief lull in precipitation will occur from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before showers and thunderstorms return Friday and last through the weekend. - Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Above normal temperatures continue today as southerly surface winds transport Gulf air into the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 70s with dewpoints approaching 60 degrees. Our weather pattern will change overnight as a cold front approaches the region. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will develop ahead of FROPA, becoming more widespread after midnight. This activity will dissipate by mid-morning, though associated rainfall totals will remain less than half an inch. The remainder of Wednesday into Thursday will be dry with seasonable temperatures as an upper level ridge builds into the area. Our next shot at precipitation will occur on Friday as a shortwave moves across the MidWest. There is a 15-20 percent chance of isolated showers throughout the day, but greater chances emerge overnight into Saturday. At this time, a deepening upper level low will eject out of the Desert Southwest. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur Saturday and Sunday as this system slowly moves across the Mid-South. The latest LREF keeps severe weather probabilities low (less than 10 percent) for this time. Therefore, expect a wet and rainy Valentine`s weekend. One thing to note is that recent ensemble probabilities for greater than 2 inches of rain falling this weekend have increased to about 40%. These probabilities drop off at around 2.5 inches, so deviated a bit from NBM guidance to lower totals through Monday morning. Given our recent lack of rainfall and the current D3 drought conditions, flooding concerns will be confined to nuisance and low-lying areas. The Mid-South will finally dry out on Monday as the aforementioned system exits the region. The beginning of next week will be dominated by an upper level ridge, bringing above normal temperatures back into the forecast. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 South winds ahead of a cold front will gust up to 25 mph this afternoon, shifting from the north overnight. Wind speeds will remain around 10 kts through tomorrow. There is a high confidence (>80%) of rain showers along and ahead of the front. Showers should approach JBR around 23Z, MEM around 00Z, MKL and TUP by 02Z. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but confidence is not high enough for a PROB30. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR levels at JBR, MEM and MKL after midnight. TUP is expected to drop to IFR. VFR cigs should return at JBR, MEM and MKL before noon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 High confidence is maintained in low fire weather concerns this period due to a combination of wetting rain chances and elevated moisture. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS