Forecast Discussion
511 FXUS64 KMEG 291746 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 - Low-end fire danger potential will linger Sunday throughout the Mississippi River Delta as dry air and gusty winds remain. - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal beginning on Monday, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Wednesday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 A much warmer day is currently ongoing across the Mid-South, with temperatures spanning the 60s under a sunny sky. Temperatures are still expected to reach just above-normal by this afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s. WAA with southerly surface winds will continue to drive the forecast through the first half of the work week, so expect high temperatures to continue to climb over the next couple of days. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday and climb into the mid 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday. With this southerly flow pattern, we will see a bit of an uptick in our moisture content through the first half of the week and especially in the second half of the week. PoPs will remain fairly isolated (< 20% chance) Monday and Tuesday afternoons and be confined to north / northeast MS. We will need to keep an eye on our afternoon wind speeds on Monday and Tuesday, as guidance is suggesting that we will be very close to our Wind Advisory criteria across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel both afternoons. Guidance suggests that there is a 50 - 70% chance of sustained winds > 25 mph and/or gusts over 40 mph on Monday, with even higher probabilities on Tuesday. If these trends continue, advisories may be warranted for these locations. By Wednesday through the remainder of the week, we will begin to see a notable pattern shift with generally southwesterly flow aloft. With the increase of moisture across the area, we will begin to see PoPs increase by Wednesday, with the highest chances falling in the Thursday to Friday timeframe (60 - 80%) and again Saturday into Sunday. There are still some notable timing differences with a series of shortwaves and stalled boundaries through the region, which makes the forecast a bit complex. Current trends favor periods of higher PoPs and some periods of lower PoPs from Wednesday through Sunday, but exact timing is still unknown. While some thunderstorms will likely be in the mix, there is not really a signal for any severe weather at this time. However, we will keep a close watch on these trends as it is April. In terms of total rainfall amounts Wednesday through next weekend, LREF guidance does have about a 20 - 30% chance of amounts over 3" by next Monday. With this in mind, there does not appear to be any 24 hour periods where total rainfall amounts are over 2", indicating that flooding concerns will likely remain low. As such, this would be good news for most of the area where we currently have widespread D1-D2 drought conditions and even some locations experiencing D3-D4. This would be a manageable amount of rain for our area and would help to alleviate some drought stress. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 VFR TAFs with impacts related to gusty winds. A tightening pressure gradient has produced persistent, southerly winds capable of gusting to around 20 knots. These gusty winds are expected to continue through the entire period with a period of LLWS from 06z-12z. Moisture will rise overnight and is expected to bring an area of VFR CIGs at MEM/JBR after 12z. Short term model guidance has indicated an increase in MVFR CIG potential, but the aridity of the current air mass has precluded introducing any mention of MVFR in this issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Fire danger concerns will persist through this afternoon, with minRH values falling near to below 35% for much of the Mid-South. 20ft winds will gust to around 20 to 25 mph at times this afternoon, especially along and west of the MS River. As for the remainder of the forecast period, moisture is expected to return to the region beginning on Monday through the rest of the week. MinRH values will likely remain at or above 35%, with some gusty afternoon winds. Precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...JAB