Forecast Discussion
740 FXUS64 KMEG 071157 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 557 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 556 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms is in place with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 556 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 A cold front stretches from western Missouri into northwest Arkansas this morning. Disorganized multicellular convection has been the rule so far across most of Arkansas. Somewhat better organization has been noted further to the north across southern Missouri where the overall deep layer shear is stronger. Adequate instability is in place across the Mid-South with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. These values will likely climb with surface heating today, especially across north MS where values should climb over 1500 J/kg. Expect storms to strengthen over the next several hours as the mid-level trough slowly encroaches and shear increases across the Mid-South. This should lead to better storm organization with line and bowing segments eventually merging into a QLCS. With increasing instability the damaging wind threat will increase later this morning into the afternoon hours. There is decent low level veering, especially this morning along and west of the MS River, so there is a threat for a quick spin up tornado. As the day progresses this threat should lessen. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The latest NQA radar sweep indicates an uptick in thunderstorms moving northwest Mississippi from the ArkLaTex region with lift from warm air advection, a weak shortwave, and a low-level jet. As we move into the overnight hours, mid-level and low-level clouds will begin to increase, preceding a slow-moving cold front. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, currently oriented just west of Arkansas, will begin pushing into the Mid-South around sunrise, aided by this cold front. Looking at severe parameters ahead of this line of storms, forecast SBCAPE values will be on the order of 700-1200 J/kg, effective bulk wind shear values of around 30 kts, and mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km. Though the parameter space is not optimal for a slam dunk severe weather day, instability will be efficient enough for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging winds. Brief spin-up tornadoes along the main line of storms will be a secondary threat tomorrow as 0-1km SRH values are forecast to be upwards of 200 m2/s2 and MLCAPE values >500 J/kg. CAMs over the last 18 hours or so have trended slower than initially anticipated, therefore, the environment will likely have more time to destabilize as we move into mid-morning/early afternoon. Severe weather will be a threat all day as the severe parameter space increases with daytime heating as this line of storms moves southwest. Flooding will also be a concern as PWATs surge to around 1.7", nearing the climatological maximum for this time of the year. Latest CAMs are in good agreement that training storms will move mainly over the Mississippi Delta region and extend into northwest Mississippi. Forecast QPF amounts in the aforementioned area are upward of 3". Nuisance flooding and urban and small streams will likely be the biggest concern, warranting potential Flood Advisories, especially in the afternoon into early evening hours. The cold front will push past our area by early Sunday drying us out and leaving temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A bit of relief after the past several record breaking temperature days. Dry conditions will not last long, however, as the aforementioned front lifts back north and a few shortwaves increase our shower and thunderstorm chances once again Monday morning. By Tuesday, our weather pattern will begin to be greatly influenced by a closed upper-level low over Baja California. Several shortwaves will eject from this region bringing daily rain chances through mid-week. As far as severe weather goes Tuesday and Wednesday, deterministic model guidance suggests a more southern track of this upper-low leading to severe weather staying just south of our area. However, ensemble solutions and cluster analysis suggest a more northern orientation resulting in severe weather creeping into southern portions of the Mid-South. Something to keep an eye on. The latter part of the week looks dry and cooler as a cold front pushes through Thursday. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 An approaching cold front will bring an array of aviation impacts over the next 24-30 hours. KNQA is starting to pick up some storms that are becoming linearly organized and will propagate southeastward with the progress of the cold front this afternoon. During the FROPA, intermittent reductions in CIG/VSBY and strong gusty winds are all on the table. Expect TSRA impacts to last for a couple hours with the leading edge of the convection upon its arrival at each terminal. Behind the main line, CAMs are in good agreement on a broad rain shield lasting through at least late evening, tapering off to light drizzle until around midnight. Winds will gradually shift around the horn from southwest to north by tomorrow morning after the front passes. Though precip will clear out overnight, post-frontal low stratus (most likely IFR) is expected to linger well into the afternoon tomorrow with very slow improvements back to VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited over the next several days as wetting rain chances increase, aided by a cold front. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50% through at least early week. Warm temperatures will continue into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD