Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS64 KMEG 311737
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend due
  to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- Frigid temperatures are expected across the Mid-South Sunday
  morning.

- Temperatures will warm to near normal next week with rain
  chances increasing on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A 1042mb area of high pressure is centered over eastern Kansas as
of 10 AM with an upper level low near the TN/AL/GA state lines.
The upper level low and associated trough will continue to rotate
through Georgia for the remainder of the day. The strong surface
high pressure will gradually filter in as the trough pulls away
from the Mid-South. The high pressure will encompass the entire
region by late tonight amplifying cold conditions. Bitterly cold
temperatures are in store early Sunday morning. The surface high
being centered over us will enhance radiational cooling
conditions. The 10th percentile from the NBM has negative ambient
temperatures along the AR/MO and KY/TN state lines with single
digits to mid-teens further south. While winds will be light to
calm, reducing drastic wind chill values, the air alone will be
cold enough. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until
12 PM/noon tomorrow (Sunday).

The area of high pressure will slowly be pushed east by a
developing low near the Four Corners Region. The main system will
spew a shortwave towards the area by Monday. The atmosphere ahead
of the shortwave will resume a southerly flow regime, finally
ending the cold snap. Southerly flow will advect warmer and
moister air back to the region and near normal temperatures reign
by Monday afternoon. The return of moisture does also return rain
chances Tuesday. Thankfully, temperatures will be well above
freezing and precipitation is expected to remain in liquid form.
The wave will move rather quickly as the parent low and attendant
cold front are not too far behind. Probabilities from the NBM of
receiving an inch of rain from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning are 35% or less. The 25-35% probabilities of this
occurring reside across north Mississippi with a 15% chance or
less from Memphis and northwards.

Wednesday will be back on the chilly side as the cold front will
have cleared the Mid-South. Benign weather is anticipated from
Wednesday for the rest of the week with mild winter afternoons
and chilly mornings. A reinforcing cold front appears to be
taking aim for the weekend, but at this time it looks like the
coldest air will remain north of the area. Long term models do
show a ~20% chance of rain late weekend into early next week, but
there is still model discrepancy on timing, chances, and
precipitation amounts.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions have returned across the Mid-South. VFR ceilings
will continue through early this evening at TUP. A low cloud deck
centered over  Middle TN this evening will skirt MKL and TUP but
is expected to remain east of the area. Otherwise, confidence is
high in VFR conditions continuing through the period. Northwest
winds at 12 to 17 kts with gusts to 25 kts will gradually
diminish this evening and overnight. Light and variable winds
will prevail later tonight and early Sunday as arctic high
pressure slides across the region. Southwest winds will start to
develop on the backside of the high by tomorrow afternoon at JBR
and MEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this
weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through tomorrow. MinRH
will remain in the 45 to 60 percent range through early next
week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts today, but fuel moisture from
snow/sleet covered soils remains plenty enough to preclude any
fire weather threat.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM