Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS64 KMEG 210541
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- An impactful winter storm is expected to impact the Mid-South
  beginning Friday afternoon with heavy snow, sleet, and ice
  accumulations expected through Sunday morning.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
  into early next week. Wind chills will be in the teens and
  single digits.

- Light rain is expected across the region Wednesday with only a
  quarter to a half-inch of rain accumulation expected. There is a
  low (less than 10%) chance of wintry precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

00Z Upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough encompassing
much of the continental United States. Meanwhile, late evening
surface analysis places a cold front in the Central Plains with
the Mid-South on the western periphery of the surface high.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevail late this evening
with temperatures in the 30s.

Downstream METAR observations show moisture beginning to increase
downstream of the Mid-South along and south of the I-20 corridor.
The air remains very dry over the forecast area this evening,
with RH values as low as 30 to 40 percent. Short-term model
trends and CAMs indicate it will take some time for the air to
saturate over the forecast area overnight into Wednesday morning.
Thus, confidence remains very low (