Forecast Discussion
767 FXUS64 KMEG 102320 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Benign weather will persist through the weekend. - A warming trend will continue, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by this weekend and into next week. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Surface high pressure will prevail across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend with upper ridging building over the region. This will keep the Gulf closed off with a dry and warm airmass over the Mid-South. A cold front located along the I-44 corridor this morning will sag a little further south through this evening. This cold front is weakening as its upper support moves through the Great Lakes and well away from the region. Isolated to scattered showers will scrape the northern tier of the Mid- South, along the Missouri/Kentucky borders, later this afternoon into this evening. There is a very low (< 20 percent) chance of thunderstorms in those areas. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm a little each day with mid 80s expected this weekend. Humidities will remain low. Winds will remain light through Saturday but start to pick up on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area, especially over the Delta where gusts to 30 mph are likely. Fire weather danger will be on the uptick by Sunday due to the combination of wind, low relative humidities and dry fuels. The pattern will start to shift early next week as the upper ridge shifts southeastward and an upper trough develops over the Western U.S. Southwest flow aloft will develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley and southerly surface flow will result in increasing humidity. Weak upper level disturbances moving through will result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms (30 to 40 percent) mainly west of I-55 and north of I-40 on Monday. The weakening upper trough over the Intermountain West will lift toward the middle of the country Tuesday or Wednesday which will help rebuild the upper ridge across the region and push precipitation chances back to the north and west for the most part. Temperatures will climb to near record level in the upper 80s. A weakening cold front associated with this upper system may push into the Mid-South toward the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, though confidence is low this far out. This front will probably fall apart. The southwest flow aloft will continue which means upper level disturbances moving through will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the end of the week. Higher chances will tend to be located across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest TN which will be located further into the southwest flow aloft while northeast Mississippi will be more influenced by the upper ridge and likely drier. Severe weather chances are fairly marginal looking at this point with questions about timing, location and strength of the system ejecting from the Western U.S. However, the LREF has 30 to 40 percent joint probabilities of SBCAPE greater than 500 J/kg and 0-500mb bulk wind shear values greater than 30 kts from Wednesday through Friday across roughly eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee so we will continue to monitor. 7 day rainfall totals look unimpressive with expected totals ranging from just a few hundredths over northeast Mississippi to around one half inch across extreme northeast Arkansas. There is only a 20 to 30 percent chance of an inch of rain through Friday across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. At this point there does not look like much short to medium term relief for the drought. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 An area of showers continues to impact portions of northeast AR this evening. Confidence in this activity reaching JBR is too low to include in the TAF. VFR ceilings will prevail through the period with southerly winds around 6 to 8 kts. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Dry weather will persist through much of the weekend, with minimum relative humidity values dipping into the 25 to 30 percent range. 20-foot winds will remain predominantly below 10 mph through Saturday. Marginal fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend due to dry air remaining in place. There is medium to high confidence that elevated fire weather danger will develop on Sunday due to the combination of dry fuels, low to mid 80 temperatures, minimum relative humidity