Forecast Discussion
522 FXUS64 KMEG 042322 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid- South this evening. - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A messy convective scheme is unfolding across the Mid-South this morning ahead of a cold front. Several outflow boundaries have been observed in the velocity fields of KNQA, which indicates the cooler air is outrunning the convection and thus squashing upscale growth. Latest mesoanalysis places a swath of about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across north Mississippi, which will most likely be our main focus for strengthening storms later this afternoon. For the most part, the airmass over east Arkansas and west Tennessee has already been worked over with all the showers and steady rain this morning. Rain rates are also not particularly impressive (maybe 0.5 inches per hour) due to the modest PWATs and lack of deep convection. Throughout the afternoon, if anything is able to tap into the more surface-based instability over north MS, would expect mainly multicell clusters with some localized strong wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Once this front clears the area tonight, dry and cooler conditions return for the next several days under dominant surface high pressure. Monday morning will be our coldest of the period under residual CAA and optimal radiational cooling conditions; forecast lows are about 5 degrees below normal in the low to mid 40s. There is a very low (< 10%) chance of frost for areas near the Tennessee River on Monday morning, though model trends have been coming in warmer with each run so that chance continues to diminish. Each subsequent day next week gets warmer with the return of southerly flow on the back side of the exiting surface high. Moving into the end of next week, the upper level pattern begins to transition to broad troughing over the central CONUS, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft. This large-scale lift will be enough to support the return of PoPs above 20% on Saturday as another cold front makes its way through the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Showers continue to move across the airspace, with some isolated TSRA that could impact TUP over the next few hours. Cigs continue to bounce between MVFR and VFR for most locations and will continue to do so until the FROPA clears each terminal. Behind FROPA, winds will remain north/northwest with some gusts upwards of 15 to 20 kts expected. Conditions will become VFR areawide by 10Z, with TUP the last to see improvements. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Wetting rains will preclude any fire weather concerns through Saturday night. Early next week, a dry air mass will move into the area with MinRHs around 30 percent. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize Monday and Tuesday with warming temperatures and gusty winds, but increasing moisture will mitigate concerns by Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA