Forecast Discussion
776 FXUS64 KMEG 091721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 - Dry and well above normal temperatures will be in place through Tuesday evening. - Rain chances return Tuesday night with showers becoming more widespread through midday Wednesday. - A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Thursday before showers and thunderstorms return Friday and last through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Spring-like conditions are underway as upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South. Given the NBM`s recent cold bias, along with persistent sunshine today, opted to raise afternoon highs a few degrees. Expect temperatures to reach the upper 60s to low 70s today. Above average temperatures will persist into Tuesday. A weak shortwave and attendant cold front will trek towards the Mid-South on Tuesday. Ahead of this boundary, moisture will increase across the region with dewpoints reaching the upper 50s and low 60s. Rain chances return overnight with showers becoming more widespread through midday Wednesday. This system will bring low rainfall totals to the area with amounts remaining less than half an inch. Showers will exit the area Wednesday evening, allowing an upper level ridge to slide into the area. A disturbance will traverse the outer periphery of this ridge on Friday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. The upcoming weekend will remain unsettled as an upper level low develops over Texas. Large model spread continues to be present in regards to this system and its forward progression. The GEFS favors a slower moving system with near-constant rain and thunderstorms through Sunday evening. As a result, storm total rainfall tops out at just over 2 inches. The ENS continues to depict a faster moving system that exits the area by Sunday morning. Associated rain totals are lower than the GEFS, around 1.75 inches. Overall LREF probabilities for greater than 2 inches of rain falling by Sunday evening, only a 30% chance exists. However, the NBM came in showing a wide swath of 3" + for this same timeframe. Given relatively low probabilities for greater than 2" of rain this weekend, lowered QPF to align with ensemble guidance. Regardless of which system verifies, the upcoming weekend will be wet and unsettled. Luckily, the beginning of next week looks to dry out as this system exits the Mid-South. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 High confidence (>90%) in VFR conditions over the next 30 hours, supported by high pressure across the region. A weak pressure gradient will maintain light south to southwest winds (5kts or less) this afternoon and much of the night. As a deepening low moves into the Plains overnight, winds will strengthen late tonight into tomorrow ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Wind speeds should reach 10-12 kts tomorrow at JBR, MEM and MKL ahead of the front. LLWS is expected at JBR for a few hours before sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low this period as MinRH stays above 50 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday night, lasting through Wednesday. Additional rain chances return by the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS