Forecast Discussion
129 FXUS64 KMEG 061722 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 - Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning through Sunday. - Dry conditions and near normal to above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, aiding in melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. Isolated showers return next Tuesday into Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 Upper air analysis continues to show an upper-level trough over the eastern United States with the Lower Mississippi Valley on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis. A warm front has pushed through the Mid-South, with temperatures already warming into the middle 40s to lower 50s late this morning. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes region into northern Missouri. A pleasant afternoon is expected across the Mid-South as temperatures warm above normal into the 50s and 60s. This will aid in melting any leftover sleet and snow remaining across the area. The aforementioned cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, resulting in a temporary return of cold temperatures through Saturday night. Any remaining wintry precipitation will refreeze each morning with temperatures falling back into the 20s to lower 30s. Thankfully, the upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will build into the region beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. This will result in well above normal spring-like temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Long term models show a cutoff upper-level low weakening into a subtle, but weak mid-level shortwave moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley next Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence for any appreciable rainfall remains low next week as LREF probabilities for 0.1 inches remain very low generally around 20- 30 percent over most of the area. A slight cooling of temperatures is expected late next week as a weak cold front drops into the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 An approaching cold front will produce a wind shift this afternoon at all sites. Northerly winds gusting in excess of 20 kts are anticipated through sunset. Otherwise, no major aviation impacts are anticipated. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next several days as minimum relative humidity values remain between 40-50%. A cold front will bring temperatures to near normal for Saturday. Above normal temperatures return beginning Sunday with no rainfall expected through at least Monday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ANS