Forecast Discussion
739 FXUS64 KMEG 080458 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will start out the week with rain chances each day beginning Tuesday evening. - Storm total rainfall through Friday will top out at around an inch. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Another pretty benign night is present with current temperatures around freezing to the lower 40s with light winds at the surface under clear skies. Aloft, the Mid-South sits under persistent northwest flow with surface high pressure just north of the Tennessee and Kentucky state line. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s as decent radiational cooling has already set in amidst aforementioned light winds. As such, any wet surfaces from ice, sleet, snow melt will potentially result in a few slick spots in the early morning hours. Afternoon temperatures will quickly rebound, however, as south winds usher in warmer air and upper-level ridging begins to build in from the High Plains. Highs will be in the 50s to mid 60s with continued dry conditions Sunday. A few weak shortwaves will move over the Mid-South late Sunday giving lift to a warm front moving northeast as we move into Monday. Monday`s temperatures will feel more like early Spring with several locations, mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line, reaching into the lower 70s. The aforementioned upper-level ridge will also broaden further from the High Plains, aiding warming temperatures Monday. Temperatures Tuesday will be much the same with dry conditions continuing through at least early afternoon. Scattered shower chances (50- 70%) begin to increase early evening Tuesday with lift from several shortwaves that will eject from the Plains and a weak surface cold front pushes in front the southern Rockies. Showers will continue into midday Wednesday. The weak cold front looks to stall out and bisect the Mid-South Wednesday, with temperatures north of the boundary in the 50s and south well into the 60s. Moving into late week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more unsettled. Ensembles indicate several shortwaves will continue to eject into the Mid-South from the Plains. Shower chances will begin to increase again come late Thursday and moving into Friday. Into the weekend, showers will continue as another, more prominent shortwave moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley. We could see a few pops of thunder Saturday, but the synoptic pattern does not support any severe weather potential. Storm total rainfall amounts are nothing to write home about as deterministic guidance tops out at around an inch and LREF has around a 50% chance of up to an inch of rainfall through Saturday. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 High confidence that VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light east winds will veer southerly and increase to 7- 10 kts Sunday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will teeter around 40-50% through early week resulting in little to no fire weather danger. Our next shot at appreciable rainfall returns late Tuesday. Above normal temperatures return Sunday and continue into the work- week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...SJM