Forecast Discussion
969
FXUS64 KMEG 232349 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
549 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning
tonight with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected
through Sunday afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop
into the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
As of 11 AM, a cold front has swept through the region and arctic
air has begun to filter in. Max temperatures have already been
reached today and will continue to cool as subsidence and diurnal
cooling occur. Since gradual cooling will occur all day, aided by
snow pack/sleet accumulation, a Cold Weather Advisory will go
into effect tonight at 6PM through the entirety of the Winter
Storm for areas under the Winter Storm Warning. Further
monitoring will be needed for counties in the ice storm warning
for their temperature and apparent temperature trends.
Southwesterly flow aloft has slowly begun to pull moisture ahead
of a mid-level shortwave. The increasing moisture combined with
lift will increase precipitation chances late this evening. While
most models are holding off on the onset of precipitation,
climatologically in these types of setup, over-running cold air
tends to favor earlier onset than models suggest. Due to this,
the Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning will still go into
effect tonight at 6 PM.
Once precipitation does begin to fall, all types are expected.
Generally, snow is the favored precipitation type in northern
portions of the region, sleet in central portions, and freezing
rain in the south. This will come in two waves, with the bulk of
the precipitation occurring late Friday night through Saturday
afternoon and once again late Saturday night into Sunday evening.
Model guidance continues to have skewing outputs, but a general
trend has been slightly warmer aloft. A surface low is expected
to develop in Alabama and affect the precipitation types within
the second wave. As the low rotates, it will filter in that
warmer air; hence models appearing to be overly aggressive in
some locations with freezing rain and ice accumulation. Point and
click soundings do show a shallow 1-3C warm nose, hence the
favored freezing rain. These models, however, do not take into
account accumulated snow/sleet on the surface, resulting in lower
surface temperatures. A warm nose of about 3C (37F) at 800mb to -
10C (14F) at the surface, should allow for enough time for a
transition back to sleet. Sleet accumulations do take much longer
to melt due to the opacity of the pellets, which can cause
lingering impacts for several days. Due to this storm, travel
will be extremely hazardous to impossible and is strongly
discouraged across the entire Mid-South.
Snowfall totals will be heavily skewed by incorporated sleet. If
pure snowfall remains across the northern tier, there is a medium
to high (>60%) chance of greater than 8" of snow in extreme
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest
Tennessee. Sleet accumulations are favored in the 1-3" range in
the `transition zone`, and around a half to one inch of ice
across the Ice Storm Warning.
One differing change from previous forecasts is due to the
developing surface low, warming will occur near the MS/AL
stateline. This could result in all liquid precipitation in a few
counties (Prentiss, Monroe, and Chickasaw), even enough elevated
instability for convective development potential. Liquid QPF
values are pretty high (above the 99th percentile) across north
Mississippi, which does favor a convective profile. These high
QPF amounts could lead to crippling ice accumulations in areas
like Oxford and Tupelo where ice accumulations are forecast to be
highest. This will be the area to watch to see how much warming
can squeak into Mississippi from this developing surface low.
One thing that is entirely certain, is a 1040mb surface high of
brutally cold air will slowly encompass the entire Mid-South by
Sunday. An Extreme Cold Watch will go into effect highlighting
Sunday at 6 PM through 12 PM Tuesday. You can expect this to be
upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning / Cold Weather Advisory for
dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values. The
forecasted ice accumulation is expected to be historic, and this
is anticipated to be a record-breaking moment for the longest
hours of sub-freezing temperatures. Temperatures were actually
lowered due to the strength of the surface high and expected
accumulations making it even colder. The forecasted ice
accumulation amounts could cause long-lasting weather-related
power outages. Preparations to keep warm are strongly encouraged
in the event of a power outage next week through this brutal
cold.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Short range high resolution models have remained consistent with
onset of wintry precip overnight. HRRR sounding profiles indicate
SN the likely initial precip type at all but TUP, where FZRA and
PL will get an early start.
HRRR vertical thermal profiles indicate warmer air above
FL050 will edge north over MEM by midmorning, reaching peak
magnitude Saturday evening. This will result in a changeover to
PL toward midmorning at MEM, mixed with occasional -FZRA in the
late afternoon and evening.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Accumulating wintry precipitation will begin tonight that will
last through the majority of the weekend. Very cold air is
expected to accompany the wintry precipitation, but the cold air
will persist through the week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
