Forecast Discussion
645 FXUS64 KMEG 212338 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 538 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 - There is a low chance (less than 25%) for rain showers east of the Mississippi River into early this evening. - Below freezing temperatures will return Monday and Tuesday mornings, with a warmup starting midweek. - Rain chances (30% or more) will return by Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 12Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show a longwave trough stretching from the Great Lakes region back into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Late morning surface analysis places a cold front over Southern Alabama and Mississippi. Mostly cloudy skies are prevailing along and west of the Mississippi River with 11 AM temperatures in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees north of I-40, and 50s to lower 60s south. The aforementioned upper level trough will push through the Mid- South into tonight and settle in across the eastern United States into early next week. Short-term CAMs indicate a low chance (< 25 %) for a few rain showers mainly east of the Mississippi River over north Mississippi into this evening. Otherwise, precipitation free conditions are expected across the area. The main impact with this trough will be the much colder air expected for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, with much colder air expected Sunday night into Monday with lows in the teens to 20s and highs struggling to reach 40 degrees on Monday. Long term ensemble solutions indicate mid-level heights will build into the middle of next week across the region, leading to temperatures moderating back well above normal into the 60s. Rain chances will return by late next week as another cold front pushes through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Instability is expected to remain elevated and poor, limiting the potential for thunderstorms across the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 A reinforcing front is currently exiting the southeastern ZME airspace. With how light the returns on KNQA/KGWX radars are in addition to how dry the midlevels are in the vertical column, opted to pull the precip out at TUP. The main impact for this period will be gusty northwest winds behind the front. Expect winds to start increasing in speed shortly after midnight. By mid morning, there is high confidence in NW wind gusts 25-30 MPH for all sites that will most likely last through 00Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. Humidity and temperatures increase by the middle of next week with rain chances returning late next week with a cold front. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CAD