Forecast Discussion

380
FXUS64 KMEG 282340 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Another round of severe weather is expected this afternoon into
  the late evening hours. All hazards will be on the table,
  particularly damaging winds.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday
  with a weak reinforcing cold front. Otherwise, generally dry and
  progressively cooler weather is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A very brief lull in convection is underway this late morning
across the Mid-South. There will be a messy convective scheme
unraveling over the next 2-3 hours as a strong cold front makes
its final approach. Severe thunderstorms are ongoing over NW AR
and SW MO, which will become our main focus for this afternoon.
According to the latest CAMs, convective mode will be
multicellular with a high potential for bowing segments,
especially across the Mississippi Delta. These bowing segments
will feature our highest damaging wind threat - most likely in
the 3-7PM time frame today. It`s worth noting that there continue
to be considerable timing discrepancies even in the highest
resolution models this afternoon. The grand ensemble of the HREF
attempts to smooth out these inconsistencies, but the HRRR has
handled the observed convection best so far and it favors an
earlier solution by 2-3 hours compared to the remaining CAMs.

Hazard-wise, all threats are on the table today. As previously
alluded to, the convective mode favors a significant damaging
wind threat across north Mississippi this afternoon. While this
is the primary hazard, the low level shear profile is supportive
of embedded tornadoes, some of which could become strong (EF-2+).
Digging into some point soundings, there is noteworthy curvature
in the lowest level of the hodographs indicative of rotating
supercells. Midlevel lapse rates have been very impressive
throughout this multi-day event and will continue to support very
large hail this afternoon at over 7 degC/km. Somewhat of a
sleeper threat may be the heavy rainfall. While these storms will
be fairly progressive in their eastward movement, a training
situation may unfold across the southern half of our area. PWATs
are above the 97.5th percentile for this time of year, which will
support very efficient rainfall rates passing over the same areas
within a few hours of each other. Storm total QPF is manageable
for most of the area at around 1.5 inches through tomorrow, but
it creeps up to near 2.5 inches along our southernmost zones.
Especially with the Memphis metro, flooding will be a sneaky
hazard today.

After the convection moves through tonight, we should be all
clear of severe weather no later than 1AM. This is a very slow-
moving front and thus we`ll still have some straggling post-
frontal showers over north MS for much of the day Wednesday.
Following this frontal passage and a weak reinforcing front on
Friday, cool high pressure will settle in nicely for the next few
days. Temperatures take a steady dive and end up about 10 degrees
below normal by this weekend with highs in the 60s. As southerly
flow returns on the back side of the exiting high pressure
system, we warm back up to near normal next week. However, the
long range forecast does favor a 30-40% chance of below normal
precipitation so we may be entering another mild pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Second round of TSRA formed quickly to the south of MEM, having
expanded in coverage as an upper level trough approached from the
southern plains and western Ozarks. This activity will likely
persist with the aid of a developing low level jet (winds around
FL020) increasing to 45kt over north MS by 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through
this afternoon and evening, resulting in 1-2" of rain areawide to
mitigate fire danger. Dry conditions with minRH values below 40%
will materialize on Thursday, before additional moisture returns
on Friday. The weekend looks dry again with minRH dipping back
below 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB