Forecast Discussion
249 FXUS64 KMEG 131100 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 600 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 - Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Cool temperatures are expected through Friday, and warm, above normal temperatures this weekend. - Confidence is increasing in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday night and into early Monday morning. - A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 Sunday night, and area wide Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Surface analysis currently shows surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South with dry, cool conditions present. Similar conditions will persist through the end of the week with high pressure gradually shifting east with time. Southerlies will gradually return in the meantime with warming temperatures. Highs will reach back into the 70s Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, a powerful trough will eject from the northern Rockies and into the Midwest, amplifying significantly in the meantime. A similarly powerful low will develop with a cold front that will swing through the region Sunday night and Monday morning. Southerly flow will ramp up ahead of the front throughout the day with sustained winds of upwards of 20 - 25 mph, especially within the Mississippi River Delta. Moisture from the Gulf will stream northward rapidly with 50 - 60 F dewpoints expected across the area by late afternoon. By late evening, the cold front will arrive with our next shot at showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm potential, especially severe potential, has increased through the last 48 hours. A significant slowing trend has occurred amongst the majority of medium range guidance, delaying the arrival of the cold front by several hours from where it forecast a few days ago. In addition to this trend, the trough has also trended towards a more amplified solution with the base of the trough now in the Ozarks late Sunday instead of the Midwest. Therefore, theta e advection will last longer and better upper height falls will be in place, increasing the available instability along the cold front as it traverses the region. A highly-forced QLCS is then expected to quickly develop through the evening and travel along the leading edge of the front through the night. CSU and CIPS probs have already produced a large area of severe weather potential, roughly following the projected track of the QLCS. As such, SPC has already placed a day 4 Slight (level 2/5) Risk for severe weather over the entire region with further refinements expected tonight. As stated above, confidence continues to rise in a strongly forced QLCS to develop along the cold front with an attendant severe wind and potential tornado threat. The tornado risk will depend on the quality of moisture that is able to advect ahead of the line, which up to this point has not been particularly high and could lead to high LCLs. Even with that in mind, most model guidance has sufficiently boundary-normal 0-3 km shear vectors and some 0-3 km CAPE. These factors suggest that embedded mesocyclones are possible within the QLCS that could produce tornadoes if enough moisture is present. Prefrontal storms appear unlikely given the low quality moisture and large MLCIN. WIth respect to the wind potential, the QLCS will likely be dynamically coupled with the upper trough and capable of mixing down severe wind gusts. Therefore, both severe winds and a conditional QLCS tornado threat are currently expected for much of the area Sunday night and into Monday morning. By the middle of Monday morning, the front is expected to have cleared the region as the upper system quickly shifts to our north and east with dry weather expected through the end of the week. A strong, 1035 mb surface high will then slide into the CONUS behind in the system, bringing a punch of cold air. Lows Monday morning are expected to drop into the low 30s with lows on Tuesday in the 20s and low 30s. A warming trend will then lift the region towards milder weather as southerlies return to the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours, with only occasional cirrus. Wind will remain the primary impact. The low level pressure gradient will continue to be tight today ahead of a surface cold front. LLWS at FL020 will be around 40kts at the northern terminals through 15z with gusty conditions until sunset. Winds will go light to calm overnight and gradually veer to the northeast after FROPA. There is a 20% chance of BR developing at MKL and TUP tonight under radiational cooling conditions. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% this afternoon and between 40-50% Saturday. Fuel moisture remains high from Wednesday`s rainfall which will mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...DNM