Forecast Discussion

977
FXUS64 KMEG 060523
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1123 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Record-breaking temperatures will continue into Friday,
  accompanied by increased humidity.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday
  night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A
  marginal to slight risk for severe storms is in place through
  early Saturday evening.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next
  week. Rainfall totals will range from 2 to 4 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

00Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge over the
Atlantic Ocean with an upper-level trough over the Rockies.
Southwest flow aloft is present in between these two synoptic
features from the Southern Plains up into the Mid-Atlantic
States. Late evening surface analysis places a quasi-stationary
boundary from the Ohio Valley back into a surface low in eastern
Colorado, with a dryline extending south into the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle and West Texas. A mild night is occurring across the
Mid-South with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower
70s and surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s.

A mild and humid pattern will continue across the Mid-South on
Friday with near-record to record high temperatures expected
again across the area. Latest HREF guidance indicates a medium to
high chance (>70%) for low stratus to develop and spread across
the area Friday morning. These low clouds are expected to mix out
by Friday afternoon. Short-term model soundings indicate a low
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during
Friday afternoon peak heating across portions of northeast
Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River.
Confidence remains low (