Forecast Discussion
362 FXUS64 KMEG 131723 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - A significant warming trend will persist through Saturday. Temperatures will be well above normal with rain-free conditions. Gusty south winds are expected Saturday. - High uncertainty exists regarding the timing and strength of the next weather system, resulting in low confidence for rain chances and temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 933 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Patchy fog over parts of the mid south has dissipated with partly cloudy skies and light S/SE winds expected through the rest of the day. No real impactful weather expected through Friday. By Friday night, a strong shortwave will trek across southern Canada along with a deepening surface low north of the Great Lakes region in southern Canada. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the mid south on Saturday with gusty south to southeast winds across the area. Latest NBM props with gusts up to 25 mph or higher pegged at 60-85% run would meet the Wind Advisory criteria. If model trends continue, a Wind Advisory may be needed for Saturday across the area. A shortwave embedded within northwest flow will bring bring a cold front through the area leading to a slight chances for showers across parts of eastern Tennessee on Saturday night into Sunday morning. A shortwave will move across the central Plains on Monday as a surface low develops over parts of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. The low will aid in bringing a warm front north into the area Monday into Tuesday leading to unsettled weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms through late next week across the mid south region. Some potential for heavy rainfall exist late next week across the area but confidence at that range is low to medium, but this will need to be monitored run to run consistency. Temperatures across the area will remain above normal through late next week across the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will generally remain S/SE around 5 kts, increasing to near 10 kts and shifting SW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Dry conditions will persist for much of the area through the weekend. MinRH values could fall below 40% by Sunday, but these locations could see small precipitation chances in the morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...LZK AVIATION...CMA