Forecast Discussion
027 FXUS64 KMEG 011738 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Unsettled weather will start tonight and continue through next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances above 50%. - Temperatures remain well above normal this week with highs near 80 degrees. - There is a medium chance (50-60%) of heavy rain later this week and weekend, mainly along and north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 The first day of meteorological spring kicks off what will be a very active weather pattern this upcoming week. A weak surface boundary is draped over the area as of 11am, which will become stationary later this evening. While pieces of energy eject from the central Plains and ride along this boundary, rain chances will be on the uptick throughout the evening. Minor north/south wobbles in this boundary`s orientation will decide the line between widespread showers and just a few sprinkles. Coverage of showers will start to pick up north of I-40 after sunset tonight and remain parked over the Mid-South through Monday afternoon. Point CAM soundings suggest a pretty dry vertical column south of the MS/TN state line, which will limit QPF to a mere trace or less. Elsewhere, moisture is still limited enough for the QPF totals to max out around a quarter inch through Monday night. As the upper level pattern transitions to persistent troughing over the Four Corners, southwesterly flow aloft will give way to a wet pattern starting mid week. After a brief break on Tuesday, a dynamic setup over the ArkLaTex will translate to residual showers and thunderstorms along a decaying cold front Wednesday afternoon. After that, a messy and nondescript surface pattern just leaves the rest of the week best described as wet and stormy. Aided by significant moisture advection at 925 mb and anomalously warm temperatures near 80 degrees, multiple shortwave systems ejecting from the ArkLaTex region will support several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night. While the kinematic setup looks much better out west for these systems, be on the lookout for a few rogue storms Wednesday through Friday. Another layer to this active pattern is the compound rainfall over several days. A bonafide cold front is expected to sweep through on Saturday, which will bring yet another round of rainfall. PWATs above 1.3 inches are nearing the upper echelon of climatology this weekend, which translates to very efficient heavy-rainfall-producing storms. The QPF on Saturday alone will most likely be more than an inch, especially north of I-40. By the end of the forecast period, ensemble QPF totals are in the 2- 3 inch range from Wednesday-Saturday, mostly along and north of I- 40. Given the deep, moist convective profile during Saturday`s frontal passage and modest bulk shear on the order of 40 kts, will be monitoring the potential for severe weather. As of right now, given the long range uncertainty, severe weather potential looks to be less than 15% this weekend but would not be surprised if at least a minor severe weather threat is introduced later in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Winds will remain generally less than 10KT this afternoon, either side of a stationary front over north MS. JBR will remain the exception, with a few gusts possible, deeper into the cooler air. Rain will enter the airspace this evening from the west, tracking mainly along and north of a line from JBR to MKL overnight. MEM will remain on the southern outskirts of this rain, with occasional -SHRA having limited impact on VIS. The aforementioned surface front will lift north of MEM after 12Z. JBR will remain on the cool side of the boundary, with MVFR CIG probabilities greater than 50 percent through 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 A stationary front remains draped over the area, creating a bit of a temperature gradient along the I-40 corridor this afternoon. If RH values drop below 30%, it would most likely be over north MS where temperatures would be more likely to overperform in the afternoon. Rain chances will gradually increase tonight and persist through the week as a series of upper-level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Wetting rain conditions are expected areawide starting Wednesday for the next several days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...PWB