Forecast Discussion
998 FXUS64 KMEG 080328 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1028 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Benign weather is expected to persist through the end of the week. - A significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 80s by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A mild overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with a stream of high clouds depicted on GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery. Relatively little forcing is noted aloft, aiding to keep our area in a dry, persistence forecast. Surface winds will continue their progression to the south into Wednesday as surface high pressure slides to the east of the area. This will allow for us to see a steady climb in our temperatures through the remainder of the week, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday afternoon and climb into the 80s by Friday into the weekend. The only potential break in this dry spell through the upcoming weekend would come on Friday as a weak shortwave approaches northeast AR into the MO Bootheel. PoPs are currently in the 15-25% range for the locations, but given the dry airmass, measurable rainfall is not expected. Into the upcoming weekend, high temperatures will soar into the mid 80s across the region. The record high temperature for most of our climate sites is in the mid to upper 80 degree range, which we will likely be within a few degrees of reaching if not exceeding on both Saturday and Sunday. The persistent, dry forecast looks to finally begin to break down sometime next week as the upper-level ridge pushes further east and an upper-level trough develops over the western U.S. While we will likely not completely break out of the dry and warm pattern until midweek, rain chances will begin to increase (20-40%) Monday through the end of the current forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 VFR conditions will continue. East winds will shift south/southeast by sunrise at around 10 kts through sunset. Intermittent wind gusts, up to 20 kts, are expected at JBR/TUP in the afternoon. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Dry conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining in the 30-35% range today. MinRH values likely will not return to above 40% in the afternoons until next week, Monday at the earliest. While 20ft winds will remain less than 10 mph through the period, marginal fire danger concerns are noted given the ongoing dry conditions and lingering drought impacts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AEH