Forecast Discussion
784 FXUS64 KMEG 121710 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 - A warming trend continues with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s by mid week, with near record to record highs anticipated. - Medium chance for critical fire weather conditions continue for northern portions of the region, warranting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through 7 PM. - The weather pattern will become unsettled through this week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Another warm and dry day is unfolding across the region as of 10 AM. These warm temperatures combined with some mixing may translate to minimum relative humidity values dropping to 30% this afternoon. A combination of low RH values, elevated winds, and dry fuels resulting in Elevated Fire Danger. Conditions are not favorable for leisure burning and wildfires could develop and spread rapidly. There is a cirrus shield spreading over the region from the ongoing convection near the AR/OK border, which could alleviate prime mixing conditions. If mixing over performs today, RH values could dip to around 25% west of the Mississippi River. The aforementioned convection will continue to move northeasterly through the day and reach northeast Arkansas late tonight. Very dry air was depicted on the OHX 12z sounding and is favored amongst model soundings. Light to moderate reflectivity`s are evident on radar; which indicates rainfall rates are modest. PW values do not start to increase until 06z, but are still around 1.25" which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year. Unless there is an uptick in moisture, which appears unlikely, rainfall will likely hold off until around 12z until the column can become saturated. A light, stratiform rain shield will move across West Tennessee tomorrow morning with coverage becoming more isolated by Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (10- 20%) of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon with peak heating steepening surface lapse rates. Otherwise, the atmosphere is rather relaxed and mostly capped. Surface high pressure will gradually retrograde back west pushing rain chances towards western Arkansas for Tuesday and most of the day Wednesday. Surface temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s on both of these days which is around 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures are nearing records for this time of year, and if trends continue to rise, new daily maximum temperature records are in the cards for Memphis, Jonesboro, and Jackson. Tupelo is currently forecasted 3 degrees away from its record for Wednesday while the other sites are about a degree away or tying the record. The heat will be put to the clock, ahead of an approaching shortwave bringing showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. Given the hot and humid conditions prior to arrival, there will be enough instability for thunderstorm development, but confidence is low for any severe weather potential. A signal for a few stronger storms is evident for Thursday afternoon with joint probabilities of SBCAPE>500 J/kg and bulk shear >30 kts are between 30-50% or less across the region. Areas west of the Mississippi River are in the 50-60% range from the LREF. There is still uncertainty amongst the timing of the models of the shortwave arrival which could result in showers and thunderstorms not aligning with the best parameters. On Friday, a deepening trough and attendant cold front look to eject out of the Northern Plains, with its cold frontal boundary taking aim at the region for Saturday afternoon into evening increasing shower and thunderstorm chances once more. Current long term guidance favors behind the frontal passage a cooler and drier start to next week. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Gusty south/southwest winds will remain the primary aviation weather impact over the next 30 hours. Surface gust potential will fade this evening, about the time a 40-45KT low level jet develops around FL020. This will present marginal LLWS potential into early overnight. Isolated high-based -SRHA may occur in the morning at JBR and MEM. 12Z HRRR depicts a few TSRA around MEM Monday afternoon, but with HREF hourly TS probabilities below 10 percent and a NIL Extended TCF, we`ll likely forgo TS mention in the 18Z MEM TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Dry weather continues with winds becoming elevated and minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent this afternoon. Thus, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect through 7 PM. Low level moisture increases by Monday with relative humidity values increasing above 30 percent and a return of wetting rain chances for Monday and the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB