Forecast Discussion
284 FXUS64 KMEG 192329 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 529 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 - Southerly winds will be gusty on Saturday, with a high probability (greater than 70 percent) of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph. - Scattered rain chances (30-50 percent) will persist from Sunday through Christmas Eve, but significant rainfall is not anticipated. - Christmas Day will be unseasonably warm, with temperatures likely exceeding 70 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 A cold front cleared the Mid-South several hours ago, leaving a cool, Canadian air mass over the region. Dry and cool conditions will be found across the area for Friday with high temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Dewpoints will reside in the upper teens and lower 20s until return flow can advect some moisture back into the area late tonight into Saturday morning. Thanks to the wetting rain last night and high pressure easing wind gusts, fire weather danger is not a concern for Friday. Saturday will be a bit warmer as southerly flow will prevail and advect warmer and moister air back to the region. Another weak cold front will take aim and tighten the pressure gradient slightly and bring gusty conditions back to the area. Probabilities from the NBM of wind gusts above 25 mph are high (>70%) nearly area wide, but these probabilities drop off rather quickly for greater than 35 mph gusts (30-50%) and shrink geographically. The aforementioned cold front will cross through on Saturday night into Sunday morning and keep conditions cooler on Sunday. The forcing of this front is not particularly impressive and the air behind it is not drastically drier or cooler, but it will pull enough moisture to support a 20-30% chance of showers mainly across north Mississippi, southeast Arkansas, and southern West Tennessee. To start the work week, an upper level ridge will begin to build over the Southern Plains. A few ridge riders are expected to develop and daily shower chances (generally 30-50%) will persist through Christmas Eve. Despite several days of rain chances, the probability of accumulating 1" of rain over the next 7 days is less than 10% areawide. The upper ridge will then become more centralized over the Mid-South and temperatures will really ramp up. Temperatures on Christmas Day are likely to exceed 70 degrees, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal. At least for Memphis International, if the current projected high temperature of 72 degrees is achieved, this would be a tie for the 5th warmest Christmas since 1875. Unfortunately, outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center do not favor a cool down anytime soon as the region is favored (60-80%) to experience above normal temperatures through the New Year. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites over the next 30 hours. Additionally, there is high confidence that LLWS will impact JBR, MEM, and MKL for approximately 6 hours Saturday morning. Gusty surface winds will subside by late afternoon before settling below 6 knots at all sites after sundown. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Dry air will prevail across the region today with minimum relative humidity values hovering around 30-40%. With wetting rain that occurred last night and high pressure easing wind gusts, fire weather danger is not a concern for Friday despite low RHs. Return flow will increase moisture on Saturday and daily rain chances will persist Sunday through Tuesday curbing fire danger concerns for the near future. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3