Forecast Discussion
271 FXUS64 KMEG 131216 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 616 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 616 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Cool and dry weather is expected to prevail through Tuesday. - There is a high chance (60-80 percent) of rain showers on Wednesday, with the best chance for locations east of the Mississippi River. - Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the latter half of this week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Another cool and calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South, under clear skies with temperatures spanning the 30s to low 40s. A surface high pressure continues to sit to the south of the area, with southwesterly winds. After another cool start Tuesday morning, temperatures will quickly surge above-normal, with high temperatures spanning to upper 50s to low 60s. A few locations across northeast AR could even approach the mid 60s. A notable pattern shift will come on Wednesday as a cut off low pressure system out of the southern plains merges with a deepening upper-level trough across the Midwest. Showers will develop by the early morning hours on Wednesday, pushing across the Mid-South throughout the day. Timing has pushed up a bit, with the majority of guidance having precipitation move out by Wednesday evening. With the earlier shift, this will keep precipitation as rain-only as colder temperatures will not arrive until a reinforcing cold front moves in later Wednesday evening. Temperatures will quickly fall, with lows in the low to mid 20s by Thursday morning. Dry conditions will return to the Mid-South on Thursday with a much cooler air mass in place. High temperatures will struggle to leave the 30s, with only a few locations across our southern tier of counties likely to see the 40 degree mark. Into Friday, we will have a very brief respite with high temperatures returning back to the upper 40s to low 50s. Something to keep an eye on for Friday will be gusty winds aided by a tightening pressure gradient to the north. LREF guidance has around a 40 to 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph, with NBM guidance closer to 60 to 80%, especially for locations north of I-40. This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days. Heading into next weekend, the forecast will be dependent on the trajectory of another upper-level trough as it moves off of the plains. The majority of guidance is leaning towards a dry and chilly solution, with high temperatures in the 30s and lows in the teens to 20s by Sunday and Monday mornings. While the NBM has continued to run with essentially no PoPs across the area, some ensembles are picking up on some increased PoPs close to the TN River at points through the weekend. This will be something to watch over the next few forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 A deepening low pressure system to our north will result in gusty SW winds at JBR, MEM, and MKL this afternoon. Winds will decrease to 10 knots or less tonight. The main change this TAF cycle was to add LLWS to MEM, MKL, and TUP ahead of a passing cold front. There is a 30 to 50% chance that -SHRAs will accompany a frontal passage overnight. Additionally, there is a 20 to 30% chance of MVFR and IFR CIGs developing along and behind the cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Elevated fire danger concerns are noted for Tuesday across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. MinRH values will fall below 35% for some locations and could dip below 30%. 20ft winds will be above 10 mph during this time, which could reach RFD criteria. Elsewhere, while winds will also be elevated, minRH values are expected to remain above 35%. MinRH values will rise above 40% on Wednesday as showers pass through the area, before falling once again through the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AC3