Forecast Discussion

428
FXUS64 KMEG 040456
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1056 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week,
  accompanied by increased humidity. Near record to record highs
  are expected through Friday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly to the north
  of I-40 Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, dry
  weather will prevail during the mid to late part of the
  workweek.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop Friday
  night and early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

This evening`s upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge
over the southeast United States with the Lower Mississippi
Valley on the western periphery of the ridge. The latest surface
analysis places a warm front along the I-44 corridor in southern
Missouri with temperatures mostly in the 60s this evening.
Confidence is high (>70% chance) for near-record to record high
temperatures for late this week and medium (50% chance) for heavy
rainfall this weekend.

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will result in mild
temperatures and dry weather across the Mid-South into Wednesday
morning. As typical with this spring-like pattern, model
soundings indicate increasing clouds by Wednesday morning as low-
level stratus develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
spreads across the area. Most of these clouds are expected to mix
out during the afternoon with highs expected to reach the middle
70s to lower 80s.

A shortwave trough will rotate through the Middle Mississippi
Valley later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, based on
short-term model trends. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to be mostly upstream of the area. However, a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across portions of
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest
Tennessee. Short-term model soundings suggest most of this
activity will be elevated. Mainly elevated instability and
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates suggest large hail as the
primary severe threat. Localized heavy rainfall and damaging
winds are the secondary threats. Elsewhere, a capping inversion
will keep most areas mainly rainfree into Friday with the
potential for record high and record high minimum temperatures to
be tied or broken.

Long-term model trends continue to indicate lower heights across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States over the
weekend. This will result in lower rainfall totals as a Pacific
cold front drops into the aforementioned areas and washes out.
Rain chances will increase again towards the middle of next week
as a cutoff upper-level low over Baja California is absorbed by a
mid-level trough over the Southern Plains.

&&

Climate Records - High/High Min
        3/4/2026       3/5/2026       3/6/2026
MEM81 2024        79 2022        81 2022
        65 1974        61 1961        66 2022
MKL     81 2024        77 2022        80 2022
        66 1955        62 2024        67 2022
JBR     79 2024        73 2024        76 2022
        57 2024        53 2004        66 2022
TUP     82 1976        80 1974        85 2022
        62 1964        63 2024        63 2022

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight period.
A MVFR deck is expected to begin building in around 12Z, ahead of
a front. South/southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts across all
terminals around this same timeframe. A few sporadic showers
could impact MEM in the afternoon and into evening hours,
however, confidence was too low to include in TAF. Confidence is
higher at JBR/MKL tomorrow evening, however, warranting PROB30s
for such. Marginal LLWS is expected at MEM Thursday morning.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid-
South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances
will increase late this week, with areas north of I-40 most
likely to experience wetting rainfall.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH