Forecast Discussion


975
FXUS64 KMEG 090454
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place Monday
  afternoon, mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a threat for
  very large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds.

- The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm
  chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry
  conditions persisting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A low amplitude shortwave and accompanying 40 kt speed max will
approach the Mid-South today, allowing lapse rates to steepen
above 7 C/km. The latest CAMs depict storms firing near the Ark-
La-Tex by midday and pushing eastward. Ahead of this activity,
the Mid-South will house around 750 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear
in excess of 45 kts. Small, organized clusters will impact the
Mid-South in the early afternoon and pose a damaging wind and
large hail threat. A few of the CAMs bring semi-discrete
supercells into the Mid-South. If this does occur, large hail
will be the primary concern. Fortunately, the severe weather
window will quickly come to a close after sunset with lingering
showers pushing into the overnight hours.

Unsettled weather will persist through midweek as a large upper
level low ejects out of Baja California on Tuesday. A messy
synoptic pattern will emerge at this time as the aforementioned
low opens up and phases with a northern stream trough. Guidance
continues to show frontogenesis over the Plains by midday as
these features interact. A large warm sector will stretch from
Texas to the MidWest with storms firing out ahead of and along
the front. Guidance keeps the bulk of this activity west of the
forecast area on Tuesday, though a rogue storm or two cannot be
ruled out. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for
areas along and north of I-40 to account for this threat.
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns.

Severe weather chances continue into Wednesday as the
aforementioned features trek east. Kinematics will be plentiful
for this time of year, suggesting organized severe weather
potential. However, ongoing morning showers will limit
destabilization through the afternoon. A typical high shear, low
CAPE environment is looking more likely for Wednesday. The
greatest severe weather chances exist in north Mississippi, where
storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. Given how
models are trending, wouldn`t be surprised if the Storm
Prediction Center trimmed the Slight Risk back in later
issuances.

By Thursday, the aforementioned front will finally clear the Mid-
South. Dry conditions will return by mid-morning with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The end of the week into the
weekend will remain dry underneath zonal flow aloft. Long range
models are beginning to pick up on another frontal passage late
Sunday into Monday. This would bring our next shot of rain, but
it remains too early to pinpoint details. Stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

00Z CAMs are in good agreement in speeding the passage of TSRA
through the Midsouth by 2-3 hours relative to earlier guidance.
TAFs have already been amended to reflect earlier arrival and
departure times, particularly for MEM and TUP. JBR and MKL will
be on the northern fringes and may only experience brief TSRA on
Monday.

Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs to spread north into the Midsouth
overnight, perhaps preceded by patchy ground fog at MKL.

TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED until TWR opens Monday
morning. TUP ASOS-generated METAR is missing several weather
elements, including ALTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this
week. However, widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel
moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire
weather concerns.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB