Forecast Discussion
405 FXUS64 KMEG 170421 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Well above-normal temperatures are expected for Friday with near record to record highs around 90 degrees. - Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday with fire weather concerns emerging into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 GOES Water vapor satellite and 00Z upper air analysis show a mid- level shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft moving across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. Showers and thunderstorms have weakened over the past couple of hours with increasing stability as the shortwave is beginning to exit the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky. KNQA WSR-88D radar trends still show a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly over West Tennessee. Temperatures as of 10 PM CDT range from the lower 60s over portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee where a convectively induced cold pool significantly dropped temperatures, to the 70s elsewhere where rain has not occurred. Short-term models continue to show mid-level ridging strengthening again overnight into Friday. Mostly rain-free conditions are expected across most of the Mid-South, with temperatures rising near record highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The exception may be across areas near the TN/KY border where there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon during peak heating. This anomalously warm pattern is expected to come to an end Friday night into Saturday as a cold front moves through the Mid- South. Confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms remains low as upstream convection arrives in a weakening phase across the Mid-South during the morning hours and best upper-level dynamics are expected to remain displaced to the northeast. Any marginal strong to severe thunderstorm threat would likely be limited mostly to portions of northeast Mississippi where differential heating boundaries could be the focus for additional development. Cooler air will arrive behind this front through early next week, bringing a return of near normal to slightly above normal temperatures back to the region. Long range ensemble solutions show a return of warmer temperatures again towards mid to late next week as an upper-level ridge builds back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will also return towards late next week as low level moisture increases across the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southwest winds will gust up to 30 kts across JBR/MEM and up to 20 kts at MKL, beginning around 14Z, ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds will continue through the next 30 hours. A LLJ will also dip down leading to marginal LLWS at JBR/MEM after 00Z and into the overnight hours Saturday. A few very light showers could impact MEM early Saturday, however, confidence was too low to mention in TAF this issuance. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fire weather concerns return for Sunday through Tuesday as minimum relative humidity values drop at or below 30% and dead fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Tuesday. Increasing humidity will be in place Wednesday, returning fire weather concerns to minimal through the end of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH