Forecast Discussion
548 FXUS64 KMEG 031229 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 629 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest chances across north Mississippi. - There is a low chance, 20-30%, of wintry weather Thursday night into Friday morning across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. - Below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend with temperatures returning to the 40s to 50s early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 625 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 We made a couple quick edits to the forecast this morning to reflect current and anticipated conditions through this afternoon. Temperatures have remained steady around the freezing mark overnight across the entire forecast, due to a thick layer of stratus clouds across the region. This heavy cloud cover will persist throughout much of the day, keeping temperatures only in the upper 30s across the north with lower 40s to the south. We went a degree or two below NBM for high temperatures this afternoon and edited the sky grids to reflect overcast skies throughout the morning and afternoon hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track. AC3 && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Another calm overnight period across the Mid-South with a persistent cloud deck holding on across the area. Latest nighttime microphysics satellite images show this low stratus deck plaguing much of the southeast, with little signs of budging or dissipating. This has aided in keeping our temperatures much warmer than previously forecast, with some locations running over 5 degrees above guidance currently. Have adjusted temperatures upwards a bit to account for this and do not think these clouds will be able to erode overnight given the current set-up. As such,the concern for freezing fog overnight has diminished greatly, but will be something to keep a close eye on as the night progresses. If there were to be any fog development, it would likely be closer to the TN River where dew point depressions are a bit lower compared to the rest of the area. Latest guidance has this persistent cloud deck slowly eroding through the morning, with sunshine returning by the afternoon across the area. We will get a subtle shot of some "warmer" temperatures into tomorrow, with much of the area returning to the 40s to near 50. By Thursday, a weak upper-level trough will move out of the desert southwest with an influx of moisture returning to the Mid- South. The biggest question mark at this time for Thursday into Friday will be where the surface boundary will be set up, with ensemble guidance remaining a bit spread. GEFS currently wants to bring the precipitation further into the Mid-South with much of the area seeing precipitation by Thursday into Friday, whereas the ENS keeps a large portion of the precipitation south of the area. Where this axis sets up will be important, because locations further north will fall below freezing Thursday night and thus could introduce the potential for another wintry solution. Not entirely confident in the PoPs at this time as there have been large run to run swings especially on the northward extent for our area. If the forecast ultimately favors the GEFS solution, this would likely bring some freezing rain back to the area with a warm nose lingering above the surface. With this being said, guidance only has around a 20% chance of trace ice and / or snow amounts across our northern tier of counties, so this could end up playing out very similar to earlier this week. Something to continue to keep a close eye on, but overall confidence is low and think any impacts should remain limited. Precipitation will exit the region by Friday afternoon, with generally dry conditions heading into the weekend. Another weak upper-level trough will move off of the Rockies on Saturday, with spread in guidance increasing thereafter. Given the set up, PoPs will generally remain limited but confidence in the forecast into the weekend and beyond is low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The current low stratus deck continues to blanket the airspace. IFR and MVFR conditions are being observed. This trend is expected to continue for at least the next 20 hours. Some guidance is still hinting at a quick crash down to LIFR (400ft) at MEM around 15z, because the drop to IFR conditions took longer, the onset time for LIFR is now delayed. Winds will remain light throughout the day, and increase to around 6-8kts from the north by the end of the period. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...DNM