Forecast Discussion


180
FXUS64 KMEG 171128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above-normal temperatures are expected for Friday with near
  record to record highs around 90 degrees.

- A cold front will move through the Mid-South on Saturday with
  showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

- Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday with
  fire weather concerns emerging into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

GOES Water vapor satellite and 00Z upper air analysis show a mid-
level shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft moving
across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms have weakened over the past couple of
hours with increasing stability as the shortwave is beginning to
exit the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky.
KNQA WSR-88D radar trends still show a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms mainly over West Tennessee. Temperatures as of
10 PM CDT range from the lower 60s over portions of northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee where a
convectively induced cold pool significantly dropped
temperatures, to the 70s elsewhere where rain has not occurred.

Short-term models continue to show mid-level ridging
strengthening again overnight into Friday. Mostly rain-free
conditions are expected across most of the Mid-South, with
temperatures rising near record highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The exception may be across areas near the TN/KY
border where there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon during peak heating.
This anomalously warm pattern is expected to come to an end
Friday night into Saturday as a cold front moves through the Mid-
South. Confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms remains low
as upstream convection arrives in a weakening phase across the
Mid-South during the morning hours and best upper-level dynamics
are expected to remain displaced to the northeast. Any marginal
strong to severe thunderstorm threat would likely be limited
mostly to portions of northeast Mississippi where differential
heating boundaries could be the focus for additional development.

Cooler air will arrive behind this front through early next week,
bringing a return of near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures back to the region. Long range ensemble solutions
show a return of warmer temperatures again towards mid to late
next week as an upper-level ridge builds back into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms
will also return towards late next week as low level moisture
increases across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

There is high confidence (>80%) in VFR conditions through this
evening. Gusty south winds will develop this morning and continue
tonight at JBR, MEM, and MKL. Gusts near 30 kts are expected at
JBR. LLWS is expected at JBR, MEM, and MKL tonight. Winds will be
lighter toward TUP where the gradient is not as strong. A cold
front will push into the region late tonight and Saturday with
lower cigs and increasing chances for SHRAs and a few TSRAs. We
are not including TSRA in the TAFs for this forecast cycle since
confidence in occurrence is low. Better chances for TSRAs are
expected Saturday afternoon.

SJM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fire weather concerns return for Sunday through Tuesday as
minimum relative humidity values drop at or below 30% and dead
fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement through Tuesday. Increasing humidity will be in
place Wednesday, returning fire weather concerns to minimal
through the end of the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM