Forecast Discussion

602
FXUS64 KMEG 020431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds are expected on Thursday, particularly
  along and west of the Mississippi River, where a Wind Advisory
  is in effect.

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, with a primary threat
  of damaging winds and secondary threats of large hail, and a
  brief tornado, remains in effect Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal)
  will continue through Friday, with higher rain chances arriving
  Friday into Saturday with a cold front. Temperatures will edge
  slightly below normal for early next week, behind this front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A relatively calm night is on display across the Mid-South with
current temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and gusty
south/southeast winds at the surface. A stationary boundary is
currently extending from southeastern Kansas through southwestern
Pennsylvania with a pretty tight pressure gradient over the
region. Looking at latest radar scans, a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is strewn along this and a few other boundaries,
extending from Kansas City, MO through San Angelo, TX. This line
will push east, toward our forecast area by the early afternoon
hours.

As this line edges closer, it looks to break apart into
more of a cluster of thunderstorms as a surface low, currently
over eastern Colorado, lifts northeast. Digging into the
parameter space here in the Mid-South, in accordance with
forecast soundings, SBCAPE values peak at around 800-1200 J/kg, 0-
6km bulk wind shear values at around 25-35 kts, and PWAT values
of around 1.5", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the
year. Though a limiting factor, forecast mid-level lapse rates are
around 5.7 C/km, potentially inhibiting robust convective
activity. Regardless, a Marginal Risk for severe weather exists
over far Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with a
primary hazard of damaging winds and secondary hazards of a brief
tornado and large hail. Best timing for potential severe weather
Thursday will be in the afternoon into early evening hours.

One thing we know for sure, surface winds Thursday will be gusty
as the pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned stationary
boundary and surface low will continue to tighten. Southwest
winds will be elevated across the Mid-South, though areas along
and west of the Mississippi River will see the strongest
sustained winds and wind gusts. NBM probabilities are peaking
around 80-98% for sustained winds 25 mph or greater primarily
over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and in portions
of far northwest Tennessee. A Wind Advisory will go into effect
at 9AM and continue through 8PM Thursday. It will likely be
extended into portions of far northwest Tennessee. Be sure to
secure down any loose items.

Elevated southwest winds and a decent swath of WAA will keep
above temperatures, in the 80s, across the area through at least
Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also increase as we
move into Friday afternoon and evening as a closed upper-level
low begins to push into the Upper Mississippi Valley late Friday
into early Saturday. Saturday looks to be more of a washout as
the aforementioned upper-low and a colocated surface low pushes
further east, near the Upper-Great Lakes region. An attendant
cold front will also begin pushing into the Middle Mississippi
valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to around 80-
100% Saturday. Severe weather chances both Friday and Saturday
are slim to none as we look to remain largely capped heights
begin to build. Storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday
morning will be nothing to write home about with most of the area
forecast to get around 1.5" with locally higher amounts.

Temperatures behind this cold front will take a dive with highs
in the 60s both Sunday and Monday. Chilly mornings will also
present early next week with readings in the 40s across the Mid-
South. A few areas, especially along the Tennessee and Kentucky
border, could see lows in the 30s Monday morning. Temperatures
will begin to gradually warm by Tuesday as northwest flow begins
to move over the region. Dry weather is also expected beyond
Saturday.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

LLWS will impact all TAF sites except TUP overnight. Southwest
surface winds will also remain gusty, up to 25kts, overnight.
Elevated winds will persist into the day with gusts in excess of
30 kts at JBR/MEM. Confidence in precise timing and location of
precipitation Thursday remains low, though showers will likely
impact JBR, MEM, and MKL by the mid-day hours. Current VFR
conditions will lower to MVFR over the next few hours, lifting
back to VFR shortly after sunrise.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through the
forecast period as minimum relative humidity values remain above
35%. A few stray showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
Thursday, though greater wetting rain potential exists late
Friday and into Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier
conditions will follow this cold front Sunday and into early next
week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AEH