Forecast Discussion


354
FXUS64 KMEG 052340 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
540 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning
  into Sunday.

- Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are
  expected on Friday and will continue through the weekend,
  leading to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The 12Z upper air analysis shows an amplified longwave trough
axis stretching from Quebec into the Southeast United States,
with an upper-level ridge across the western U.S. A 1032 mb
surface high is keeping the Mid-South precipitation free late
this morning. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 20s to
middle 30s after a very cold start with lows mainly in the teens
to lower 20s.

Temperatures remain below normal into this afternoon as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight
are not expected to be as cold as southerly winds return on the
back side of high pressure. A warm front will move through the
area Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures to the
Mid-South with highs expected to range from the middle 50s north
to the middle 60s south. This period of above normal temperatures
will be short-lived as a weak cold front drops into the area
Friday night. Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday
night. Lows are expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs
Saturday in the 40s to lower 50s. Our confidence remains high for
dry conditions continuing into early next week and a gradual
moderation of temperatures by Sunday.

Long range model guidance indicates an upper level ridge will
build into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys by early next
week. This pattern is expected to bring well above normal
temperatures, with spring-like highs in the 60s to near
70 degrees by next Tuesday. A cutoff upper-level low will evolve
into a weak southern stream open wave trough and move into the
region by mid to late next week. LREF guidance suggests a low
confidence (20-30% chance for 0.1 inches) of rain showers
associated with this trough by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The primary concern is a low (30-40%) chance of IFR CIGs after
11Z, depicted in  HREF guidance for MEM and MKL. Deterministic
guidance from the NBM and GFS LAMP carry no CIG at either
terminal overnight, but indicate a potential cloud layer at 300-
600 ft. Given the limited confidence, the MEM and MKL TAFS
include a FEW deck at a 400-500 ft near and shortly after
sunrise.

A surface cold frontal passage will bring gusty northwest winds
to all Midsouth TAF sites Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next
several days as minimum relative humidity values range between 40-
60%. A warming trend will begin Friday. There is no forecast
appreciable rainfall through early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB