Forecast Discussion
437 FXUS64 KMEG 220521 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1121 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Rain chances will decrease on Saturday, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry with highs in the 60s and 70s. - Showers and thunderstorms return Monday and Tuesday. - Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 As of 10PM, a line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push across the TN/KY border. The latest mesoanalysis places about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE in this region, along with 60 kts of bulk shear. However, these storms are struggling to gain strength due to lackluster lapse rates and increasing CIN. The eastern half of the forecast area remains in a Marginal risk for severe storms. If a storm or two can tap into areas of increased lift, a few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. However, the likelihood of this occurring is on the decline. Rain chances will slowly taper off overnight, leaving the region dry by midmorning. A slow moving cold front will bring slightly cooler afternoon temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s. Cool and dry conditions will persist on Sunday with highs in the 60s. A fairly active synoptic pattern emerges on Monday as a large upper level low ejects out of the Desert Southwest. A leading shortwave will increase dewpoints locally and provide enough lift to initiate showers and thunderstorms by midday. The overall severe weather parameter space will be hampered by low 50s dewpoints and lack luster lapse rates. Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours. At this time, dewpoints will surge to the low 60s. Guidance continues to paint a narrow corridor of about 300 J/kg of MLCAPE overlapping with 40 kts of bulk shear by midday Tuesday. If storms are able to overcome weak forcing, this could be just enough to support a few damaging wind gusts. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly dissipate Tuesday evening. The Thanksgiving holiday will be much cooler as an upper level trough ejects from the Intermountain West. This system will bring a Continental Polar air mass to the Mid-South on Wednesday. As a result, temperatures will be much cooler as highs struggle to reach 50 degrees. For Thanksgiving Day, the LREF places a 50-70% probability of high temperatures below 50 degrees for areas north of the MS/TN border. Nighttime radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall below freezing across most of the area Thursday and Friday. The end of next week will remain cool and dry. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A few showers are possible near TUP this evening but otherwise rain free conditions will prevail. Wind around 5 kts should be enough to preclude fog development. MVFR/VFR conditions expected tonight and much of tomorrow as a surface low and weak trough shifts to the east. VFR cigs should return to all sites tomorrow night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain minimal this period as MinRH values remain above 50 percent. Wetting rain chances return Monday and will persist into Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS