Forecast Discussion
695 FXUS64 KMEG 141802 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1202 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 - A low pressure system will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon. - Weekend rainfall totals will be in the half to 2 inch range, with the greatest amounts along and north of I-40. - A pattern change next week will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 The latest KNQA radar sweep denotes isolated showers moving east/northeast, with the greatest coverage over northeast Arkansas. A warm front, currently extending from Monroe county through southwest Missouri, is moving northeast, giving lift to the aforementioned showers. As we pivot into the afternoon hours, shower and occasional thunderstorm chances will increase (40- 60%), aided by the aforementioned front and a decent swath of warm air advection. Around sunset widespread rainfall (80-100%) will become the story through tomorrow afternoon as a trough and cutoff upper low, currently over the Oklahoma panhandle, moves over the ArkLaTex region. This cutoff low will interact with a surface low late tonight as it edges closer to our forecast area. Severe weather is not anticipated as most of the instability will be pinched off this far north. However, forecast soundings do indicate up to 200 J/kg of SBCAPE, mainly over the Mississippi Delta region indicating a few rumbles of thunder mainly after sunset and into the overnight hours. The greatest precipitation swath will move over the Mid-South overnight as both low pressure systems push into the Mississippi Delta region. These systems will also interact with a surge of PWATs, up to 1.5", nearing the maximum for this time of year. One thing to note, the greatest forecast rainfall totals (up to 2") will fall over the same area that got the highest snowfall totals a little over 2 weeks ago. As such, this is the area that saw the most snowmelt and in turn, the region where soils are most saturated. Though 2" of rainfall does not sound like much, most precipitation does look to fall over a 6-8 hour time period. A few Flood Advisories may be warranted overnight. Come mid-day Sunday, the pressure gradient on the backside of this surface low is forecast to tighten on the scale of 6-8 mb. If this forecast materializes, we could see some pretty strong wind gusts around 30-35 mph, mainly in the Mississippi Delta region tomorrow afternoon. As this surface low and upper-low push east, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to diminish pretty rapidly across the Mid-South by mid-afternoon tomorrow. Upper-level northwest flow and surface high pressure will quickly build over the region, resulting in dry and warm conditions. By Monday morning, upper-level ridging will begin building over the Mississippi Valley, with high temperatures largely in the 70s by Tuesday. We will be flirting with record breaking high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday with much of the area in the mid 70s. Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period as persistent ridging, warm air advection, and elevated southwest winds advect very warm air in. Areas mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line could see temperatures in the upper 70s Thursday. It will feel like Spring. The end of the week does look a little "cooler" as a cold front and probabilistic guidance indicates a few shortwaves will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley early Friday. However, we`re a little too far out in time to iron out the exact details on this late week system. Those looking for winter to return, will likely be waiting a decent while as the latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC has us highlighted with above normal temperatures through at least the end of February. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 An area of MVFR cigs linger at TUP, otherwise VFR conditions will likely prevail over the next few hours. Rain and MVFR cigs will spread across the airspace beginning with JBR this afternoon, approaching MEM/MKL this evening and TUP overnight. Guidance continues to highlight areas of IFR cigs by tomorrow morning, with conditions lingering into the mid-morning hours behind the exiting rain. S/SE winds will back to N by tomorrow as a low pressure slides eastward across north MS. Wind speeds will pick up into tomorrow, with occasional gusts upwards of 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Wetting rainfall returns today increasing minimum relative humidity values well above 50% tomorrow. Rainfall totals will top out at around 2 inches by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, 20 ft winds will be elevated on the backside of a low pressure system. Behind this system, warm and dry conditions will move back over the Mid-South as we move into the workweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CJC