Forecast Discussion
370 FXUS64 KMEG 082349 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 549 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near normal by Wednesday. - Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 GOES night/fog product still indicates low stratus clouds slow to erode along and south of I-40 early this evening. Short term CAMs remain mixed on whether clouds will completely erode across the remainder of the area tonight. The HRRR and NAMNest favor clouds filling back in across the area overnight into Tuesday morning and this seems to be the most likely solution to occur. As a result, cloud cover has been updated to reflect latest trends. Confidence remains moderate to high for no other changes in the short term forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Mid-South through midweek. Southerly surface winds will allow gradual WAA through Wednesday, when high temperatures return to the mid and upper 50s.Unfortunately, warmer temperatures will not stick around for long as a surface low pressure system and attendant cold front push across the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. Eventual FROPA will occur by midday with cooler air funneling into the Mid-South overnight. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Elsewhere in CONUS on Friday, a piece of the Polar Vortex will eject across the Great Lakes Region. This will allow for a Continental Polar airmass to settle over a large portion of CONUS. The latest guidance suggests a more northerly ejection of this airmass, meaning the coldest air will remain confined to the midwest. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be well below normal locally with highs ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s. The coldest morning will occur on Saturday as lows drop to the low 20s for areas north of I-40. Rain chances return on Sunday, but overall QPF amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Clearing has progressed south with MEM/MKL expected to see some scattering within the first hour or two of the TAF period. VFR will then prevail at MEM/MKL with the potential for a few drops to MVFR at MEM through 04z. MVFR is expected to return by 09z, lasting through mid morning Tuesday before CIGs quickly erode up to VFR. TUP will continue to see MVFR CIGs through the night with the potential for a drop to IFR around sunrise and then also eroding up to VFR by mid morning. Gusty winds will then dominate the forecast Tuesday afternoon with gusts at MEM/MKL/JBR approaching 20 knots through the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds will continue through the remainder of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JAB UPDATE...CJC