Forecast Discussion
627 FXUS64 KMEG 051148 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 548 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 548 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected mainly north of I-40 into Thursday morning. - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity. Near record to record highs are expected through Friday. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026 00Z upper-air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends place a shortwave trough over the Central and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show showers and thunderstorms stretching from Southern Missouri back through eastern Oklahoma and into the Red River Valley of Texas. Further east, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over east Arkansas and north Mississippi earlier this evening. A warm and moist atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Latest mesoanalysis indicates between 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and around 30 kts of shear. Short-term models and CAMs suggest much of the Mid-South will remain relatively rain-free overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely closer to the shortwave trough over portions of east/northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. The strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains very conditional, with large hail being the predominant concern, followed by localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds as secondary threats. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease on Thursday as the mid-level trough moves away into the Ohio Valley. Near record high temperatures and high minimum temperatures are expected into Friday as the warm and humid Spring-like air mass remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Since shear will remain weak around 20 kts, any convective activity will be unorganized pulse-like showers and thunderstorms. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains very low into Friday. Long term ensemble model solutions indicate that showers and thunderstorms along an upstream quasi-stationary boundary will gradually move southeast over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this weekend as mid-level heights lower across the region. This surface boundary will bring a continuation of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South into early next week. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper-level low is expected to form near Baja California and eventually re-absorbed by a northern stream mid- level trough by early next week. This next trough will bring additional showers and thunderstorms back to the region by the middle of next week. LREF joint probabilities indicate a low chance (20-30%) of surface-based CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg and shear greater than 30 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday over portions of the area. This will be monitored in subsequent forecasts for any strong to severe thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026 Showers will drift across the northern half of the Mid-South this morning mainly impacting JBR. There is a low (15 mph) could occur in the afternoons each day. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day, with chances increasing areawide into this weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM