Forecast Discussion
857 FXUS64 KMEG 120417 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1117 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 - Widespread rain showers, and occasionally a few rumbles of thunder, are expected across northern Mississippi through tonight. - Dry conditions return early Thursday morning and will last through Saturday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. - A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 on Monday morning, and area wide Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 The vast majority of convection has exited the region early Wednesday evening as an outflow boundary associated with storms earlier in the day pushed south. Stratiform showers are expected to continue across northern Mississippi in the meantime as a trailing stratiform region behind storms over southern Mississippi travels northeast. Rain should end by 09z, leaving dry conditions to prevail as a synoptic cold front clears the region. This boundary, as of 02z, had just entered northern Mississippi with gusty winds up to 25 - 30 knots. Therefore, expect elevated wind gusts through the night as the front moves through. The upper system associated with Wednesday`s storms/rain will traverse the Gulf coast through Thursday morning, eventually making its way east of our longitude Thursday afternoon. Rapid height rises will promote strong subsidence aloft and help build in high pressure behind the front. Dry conditions will then prevail through this upcoming weekend as weak upper ridging prevails under a northwest flow regime. However, by Sunday morning, a strong upstream trough will push ridging to the east and bring southerlies back to the region. A surface cyclone is forecast to rapidly develop across the Midwest with a trailing cold front that will swing through the region Sunday evening that will contain our next shot at precipitation. In Tuesday`s and Wednesday`s forecast cycles, moisture appeared to be limited due to the trough being highly progressive. However, a steady slowing trend amongst recent guidance has now allowed for the front to remain far enough west through Sunday for dewpoints to potentially reach into the 60s along the boundary. This brings into question the potential for thunderstorms as higher instability has made its way into the forecast as well. Of particular note is also the geometry of the upper low, which now has a strong vorticity maximum stretched south across the Ozarks Sunday evening. Such a feature would allow for significant heightfalls along and ahead of the cold front, eroding much of the CIN seen in previous runs. Even looking at ensembles, a trend towards this solution has begun to appear with LREF joint probabilities of 500+ J/kg MUCAPE and 30+ increasing 20% to 30% in between 00z and 12z Wednesday. However, moisture will still be "just in time" and/or shallow, which has kept confidence still somewhat low, but certainly a trend to watch. The front is expected to clear the region by Monday morning with a strong 1032 high shifting into the CONUS from southern Canada. This air mass will be notably colder than the one behind this morning`s cold front with low temperatures dropping into the 30s as early as Monday morning. High pressure is forecast to become more centered over the region Monday night and into Tuesday morning with a 60% - 80% chance of lows at or below freezing. High pressure will then slide to the east by Wednesday where southwesterlies will begin advecting warmer air into the region through the end of the week with a dry forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Post-frontal CIGs have improved faster than guidance earlier suggested, prevailing at high MVFR / low VFR at MEM, JBR and MKL. TUP CIGs remain on track with earlier guidance and will take longer to transition to VFR given persistent -RA. Otherwise, the main impact will remain winds overnight. Wind speeds will gradually decrease through the daytime morning hours as the pressure gradient weakens. A surface pressure ridge axis will settle in by late afternoon, resulting in light and variable for a few hours. Southerly return flow is forecast on the backside of the ridge during the MEM inbound push. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end this morning as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% today and tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday`s rainfall has increased fuel moisture which will mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB