Forecast Discussion
385 FXUS64 KMEG 261126 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 626 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 - A medium chance for severe storms exists Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. An Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes is in place. - Another round of severe weather is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday evening where a Slight (2/5) Risk is in effect. - Weather will cool off and dry out through the end of next week with highs returning to the 70s and low 80s as early as Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Warm, calm conditions currently reside over the Mid-South north of a weak frontal boundary across the southern periphery of the region. These conditions will persist throughout tonight as high pressure remains. A few thunderstorms originating from the Plains this evening will make a close pass to our southwestern-most zones, but the expectation is for the region to remain dry through at least Sunday morning. Otherwise, some fog could develop in low-lying areas across West Tennessee and north Mississippi, particularly near the frontal boundary through early Sunday morning. As Sunday progresses, upper ridging will persist, which will act to keep PoPs below 40% across the region. However, out west an upper trough over the southwestern CONUS will flatten into a broad jet streak that will begin to propagate eastward through Sunday night and into Monday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central plains, causing southerlies to return to the southeastern CONUS, lifting the cold/stationary front back north as a warm front. The air mass that will replace the current one will be very tropical, containing surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and into the low 70s and will set the stage for multiple rounds of severe weather early next week. By Monday morning, the tropical air mass will have lifted well north of the region as the surface low continues to pull air poleward. The upper jet streak and associated low-amplitude trough will continue east in the meantime. Strong diurnal heating amidst seasonably high dewpoints is forecast to yield well over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon, even without substantial upper cooling from the trough. Bulk shear values above 40 knots will overspread the region as the jet streak noses into the region, setting the stage for organized convection and severe weather Monday evening through Monday night. When it comes to specific hazards, particularly the tornado threat, the forecast is still uncertain. Tornadoes are definitely possible as strong bulk shear, 0-3 km SRH values above 250 m2/s2, and 2500 J/kg MLCAPE will be juxtaposed for several hours. However, prefrontal storms that could tap into this environment appear unlikely without the support of the lift from the trough to our north. That being said, any subtle increase in prefrontal troughing could be enough of a trigger to get a few storms going ahead of the cold front. The more likely solution is the development of a line to our north in Missouri that tracks south and east through the region overnight. As the 925 mb - 850 mb jet increases through the evening hours ahead of the line, enough SRH and instability will remain to retain a QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat through the night. For now, SPC has maintained the Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk through the northern third of the region with a Slight (level 2/5) Risk covering the rest of the Mid-South for all severe hazards. Monday`s storms are anticipated to weaken and/or move out of the region by sunrise Tuesday, but the front associated with them will not clear the region. Models have steadily trended towards arrival of a second, low-amplitude trough and jet streak Tuesday evening. This feature would act to provide enough of a surface response to lift to the now stationary boundary back north, recovering the lost moisture from Monday night. If rain and clouds are able to clear through the day, MLCAPE could very well reach 2500+ J/kg again within an environment containing 40+ knots of bulk shear. The boundary will act as a focus for convective initiation with most guidance resolving convection throughout the region Tuesday evening that would pose a threat for severe wind, hail, and perhaps tornadoes. There is still uncertainty in the evolution of these storms and whether or not they will grow upscale or remain more isolated/scattered as supercells that will determine the predominant type of hazards. Storms Tuesday night will eventually leave the region Wednesday morning as the second trough exits to our northeast, kicking a cold front back south through behind the storms. The exact distance the front makes it through Wednesday is still uncertain as ensembles keep some instability and thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will drop into the 70s and low 80s, dropping into the low to mid 70s Thursday. Ensembles are in decent agreement that a trough will exit the southern Rockies and travel along the Gulf coast Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing our next shot at precipitation. At this time, instability appears low to non-existent, significantly diminishing any chances for severe weather. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 There is a chance of light fog (~30%) through 13z at MKL otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period. Winds will be light through much of tonight. The gradient will pick up late tonight into Monday, and gusty south winds will develop. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Recent rainfall and upcoming showers and thunderstorms into early next week will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire danger is expected to be low through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM