Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMEG 160016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
616 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/

Most of us have at least seen some sunshine through the day
today. Clouds are most widespread in Northern parts of West
Tennessee, and along the Mississippi River. Temperatures have
climbed into the low 40s across most of the Midsouth. Overnight
lows will dip into the middle 30s, remaining above freezing across
most of the area.

Most of the region should see some sun around sunrise tomorrow,
but cloud cover will increase from West to East through the day.
Surface High pressure will shift off to the East tomorrow,
becoming centered over Alabama and East Tennessee. As a result
return flow will begin to advect warmer temperatures and higher
moisture back across the area. Highs tomorrow should climb into
the middle 50s with readings approaching 60 Thursday. Tomorrow
night into early Thursday a strong surface low will strengthen as
it tracks from Western Oklahoma, along the Southern Missouri
Border. Rain will arrive ahead an associated the cold front early
Thursday. A quick round of showers is expected, resulting in less
than a quarter of an inch of rain. Friday looks dry. The airmass
behind the front is drier, but temperatures are about the same
since the airmass is Pacific in origin.

Saturday looks wet. Rainfall will likely begin Friday night.
Rainfall totals through Saturday evening could approach 2 inches
across a large portion of the Midsouth. Strong dynamics aloft
will likely be enough to result in at least scattered
thunderstorms. However, as dew points and temperatures increase
during the day, the potential resulting instability may be
suppressed by clouds and ongoing rain.

Guidance has trended as suspected Saturday night. The GFS is now
significantly drier than the ECMWF, shifting the bulk of the
precipitation East of the area before the cold air arrives
resulting in minimal snowfall accumulation. The ECMWF has trended
slightly drier and slightly faster, but still produces
accumulating snow across a large portion of the Midsouth.

Sunday into early next week look significantly colder and dry.
High temperatures may remain below freezing across much of the
Midsouth Sunday with lows in the teens Monday morning. Wind chills
Monday morning may dip as low as 5 degrees, with the warmest
readings only in the middle teens.




MVFR cigs are finally clearing out. There is still a strip along
the Delta into KJBR. This should continue to erode this evening
with all sites going VFR by later this evening. Expect VFR conds
to continue through most of Wednesday. MVFR cigs will start to
move back into KJBR/KMEM toward the end of the period. Generally light
southwest winds will prevail through the period.