Forecast Discussion

565
FXUS64 KMEG 121111
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
511 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Mild weather will persist through the end of the week with highs
  in the 50s and 60s.

- A low pressure system will bring another round of rainfall
  beginning Saturday that will last through Sunday. A few
  thunderstorms are expected amidst widespread rain showers.

- Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A 1027 mb surface high is located near St. Louis this evening and
will continue to build over the Mid-South overnight. Temps range
from the upper 30s near Paris to the mid 40s across north
Mississippi. Lows will drop deep into the 30s by morning with
near freezing temperatures across northern sections. Surface high
pressure will control the weather through the end of the week.
The forecast has trended slightly warmer on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures are expected to reach highs in the 50s to lower 60s
on Thursday and well into the 60s on Friday.

The main forecast problem remains the significant system that
will eject out of the Southwest US and northern Mexico later this
week. By Friday night low pressure will develop over the Red
River Valley with a warm front extending eastward through the
ARKLATEX. Showers will develop along and north of that boundary
and push into western sections of the Mid-South mainly after
midnight Friday night. Low pressure will track eastward into the
Mid-South over the weekend. Northeast Mississippi could scrape
out a relatively dry Saturday before the heaviest round of
precipitation occurs Saturday night.  The track of the surface
low and the strength of the upper-level system will determine
where the heaviest rainfall occurs and whether any sort of severe
weather threat materializes. The LREF places the surface low
track roughly along the TN/MS state line, though each ensemble
system varies from that slightly. The GEPS is the furthest north,
and that scenario results in a small probability of severe
weather (