Forecast Discussion
134 FXUS64 KMEG 181708 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1108 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week although there will be a slight cooldown over the weekend. - Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall through this weekend. - Cooler conditions are expected next weekend with highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Strengthening southerly flow today could result in near record high temperatures in northeast Mississippi. However, current satellite imagery shows an expansive cloud deck over the region, with no evidence of it dissipating or moving out of the area anytime soon. Expect highs to fall short of records, generally in the middle to upper 70s. A midlevel shortwave will shift east across the middle Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon/evening. A surface low along the Oklahoma-Kansas state line will slowly weaken over the next 18 hours as it tracks east across central Missouri into southern Illinois. An attendant cold front will move into the Midsouth tonight, likely stalling somewhere along the I-40 corridor, somewhat bisecting the Midsouth. Clouds currently across the Midsouth and the late timing of the front/shortwave will both limit the potential for any severe thunderstorms. Any storms should be elevated this afternoon north of a warm front advancing through the area. Hail would be the main threat north/east of the warm front with a higher chance of hail and wind in the warm sector. A transient ridge will shift across the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday, limiting the chance of rain and thunderstorms. It will also result in less cloud cover and warmer temperatures across the region. Near record highs (above 80 degrees) are possible again across north Mississippi. NBM probabilistic output even shows about a 10% chance that portions of northeast Mississippi could reach 85 degrees Wednesday afternoon. While the chance of getting that warm is very low, record highs are only in the low 80s. After midweek, the ridge will shift east and a deepening trough over the Desert Southwest will result in strengthening southwest flow from south Texas across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley. A 55-65kt midlevel jet will setup from northeast Texas into middle Tennessee Thursday and remain in that general orientation through early Saturday. PW`s are expected to be near 1.4 inches(above the 95th percentile for mid November), and high temperatures should be in the middle 70s. Ample moisture, lift from the midlevel jet and warm temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms late Thursday or early Friday. The threat of severe storms would be higher if a shortwave, currently expected to approach the area early Friday, speeds up a bit. Guidance varies a bit for next weekend, but in general trends cooler with a low chance of rain showers. Sirmon && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Main impact this aviation cycle will be a cold frontal passage resulting in showers and thunderstorms late this evening. Uncertainty still remains relatively high, thus PROB30s are the best way to handle this FROPA convection as of right now. Ceilings will likely be on the fence of MVFR/VFR all day and night given the surrounding observations in this expansive stratus deck. Winds ahead of the front will be quite gusty up to 25 kts from the southwest today, finally diminishing back below 10 kts with a northwest wind shift behind the front. CAD && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 No Fire Weather concerns are anticipated over the next seven days. An increasingly wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the Mid-South this week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CAD