Forecast Discussion
934
FXUS64 KMEG 150449
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday morning through Monday
morning for wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the
entire Mid-South late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.
The main threat will be damaging winds with a 20% chance for a
couple of brief tornadoes to occur as the line of storms moves
across the entire Mid-South.
- Freeze Watches are in effect for the Mid-South Monday and
Tuesday mornings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a deepening
trough over the InterMountain West with broad troughing across
nearly the entire CONUS. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
remains draped from the KS/OK border ESE into the Carolinas.
Temperatures remain mild at this hour with readings mainly in the
low to upper 60s. Generally light surface winds are observed
across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Over the next 12 hours, a deep trough will develop over the
Southern Plains and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the
Lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Ahead of the system,
strong surface cyclogenesis will ensue with a 989mb low forecast
to be near the IA/MO border by early afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient will tighten significantly across the region,
with nearly a 10mb gradient from northeast Arkansas to northeast
Mississippi. Strong winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph will be
plenty with wind gusts approaching 45 mph at times, especially
over the Missouri Bootheel. Strong WAA advection will
simultaneously occur, with the latest HREF building between
750 and 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE across the entire Mid-South. With the
ejection of a 60 knot mid-level jet by and nearly 100 meter
height falls across the region by mid afternoon, a strongly
forced QLCS will develop just to our west. The main threats with
the squall line will be damaging winds, but compact looping
hodographs will support the threat for at least a few
mesovortices within the line. There is some concern that discrete
cells could form ahead of the main cold front, associated with a
prefrontal trough, mainly over north Mississippi by mid to late
afternoon. Although the probability is less than 20% for
prefrontal organized convection, and only tied to a couple hi-res
model members at this time, the model soundings suggest a
supercell threat could emerge and could contain an all-hazards
threat early on. This window will remain rather short for
supercells, but they could quickly form and strengthen and result
in a strong tornado or two. Nonetheless, the QLCS will advance
quickly across the region by late afternoon and early evening and
congeal any prefrontal convection. There has been some talk about
a potential upgrade from the current Enhanced Risk (3/5), and the
main cause would be potential supercells on the southern end of
the QLCS, mainly over portions of southeast Arkansas and north
Mississippi. With some uncertainty still looming, the Enhanced
Risk with CIG1 covers the entire event well. The squall line
should clear the area around midnight tomorrow night, ending the
severe threat.
Behind the front, strong winds will persist as a 110 knot mid-
level jet digs across the region. The HREF is consistent with the
continual mixing down of strong winds behind the front, prompting
the expansion of the wind advisory to the entire Mid-South and a
time extension through 7AM Monday. With several hours of strong
winds and wind gusts before, during, and after the passage of the
QLCS, the threat for weather-related power outages and additional
downed trees will persist through the dawn hours on Monday.
Monday morning will be especially brisk as sustained 15 to 20 mph
winds keep apparent temperatures only in the 20s all day on
Monday. A freeze watch remains in effect for nearly the entire
Mid-South. Surface high pressure will build into the region late
Monday night and become nearly centered over the region by
Tuesday morning. Prime radiational cooling will result in morning
lows in the upper teens over northwest Tennessee to lower 20s
over northeast Mississippi. An areawide freeze watch remains in
effect.
Temperatures will moderate by midweek as surface high pressure
slides east and return flow sets up over the region. The region
can expect benign weather and above normal temperatures to return
by late week as upper level high pressure builds across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
A 45kt LLJ will result in LLWS across all sites through the
afternoon. A tight pressure gradient ahead of a fast moving cold
front has brought south/southwest wind gusts, up to 25 kts
overnight. Beginning around 12Z, gusts will accelerate in excess
of 35 kts through the afternoon hours across all terminals. VFR
conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, though
intermittent drops to MVFR can`t be ruled out ahead of the
aforementioned front. SHRA out ahead of the main front are
expected to begin impacting JBR/MEM/MKL around 21Z. TSRA, moving
west to east, will reduce visibilities and lead to potentially
greater than 40 kt wind gusts across all TAF sites. Winds will
shift northwest, behind the front, toward the end of the period.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of
days. A widespread shot of wetting rain is expected late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday evening as a line of thunderstorms moves
across the Mid-South, followed by much colder temperatures for
early next week. Above normal temperatures will return by late
week, however, relative humidity will remain in the 40 percent
range.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
MOZ113-115.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
MSZ001>015-020>022.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
