Forecast Discussion

488
FXUS64 KMEG 142342 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
542 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of northern
  Mississippi Monday morning for dangerously cold wind chills.

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the
  seasonthrough Monday morning, with wind chills dropping into the
  teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain
  chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
  continues to warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

An Arctic cold front has now passed completely through the region
as of this morning with low temperatures in the low to upper
teens as far south as the TN/MS border. Wind chills continue to
hover in the single digits that are expected to gradually climb
into the teens later today as temperatures increase across the
area. Temperatures will not rise above freezing today and
blustery winds will continue into this evening. Temperatures will
plummet once again tonight as a 1030+ mb high moves across the
Mid-South with lows in the low to upper teens across the entire
area. Wind chills will be low enough across portions of north MS
to require another Cold Weather Advisory tonight until 9 a.m CDT
Monday before temperatures finally climb above freezing Monday
afternoon area-wide. Areas outside of the Cold Weather Advisory
Monday will still be incredibly cold tomorrow morning with
optimal radiational cooling conditions expected to bring single
digit lows (7-15 F).

A quick warm up will commence after Monday as high pressure moves
to our east and southerlies are able to bring warmer air north.
Highs on Tuesday are expected to range between 45 F and 55 F,
warming further Wednesday into the 50s and 60s. The presence of
ridging aloft will keep precipitation chances low (< 20%) through
Wednesday morning, but increase (30% - 40%) Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday ahead of a new system.

By Thursday, models (GEFS/GFS/ECMWF) all bring a new trough into
the central Plains. Amplification of the trough will take place
through Thursday with some differences in the magnitude of
amplification. However, confidence is high regarding the
development of a strong lee cyclone that will move east, across
the plains, and into the Midwest. A cold front will trail this
system, and will eventually reach the Mid-South sometime Thursday
afternoon with strong warm advection ahead of it. Dewpoints will
increase in response across the entire region with NBM/LREF both
depicting 60 F dewpoints as far north as the TN/MS border. This
raises confidence in the development of thunderstorms, especially
given NBM/LREF also bring 300-500 J/kg SBCAPE along and ahead of
the cold front with ample deep layer shear. However, there are
still several limiting factors, the most notable being poor mid-
level thermodynamics as lapse rates struggle to get above 7 C/km.
If the upper system were to track further south, stronger, more
southerly, warm advection and cooler air aloft could allow for
higher CAPE, but model confidence is high that the main lobe of
upper vorticity/cold will remain across the Mid-West. Therefore,
a marginal severe threat is possible Thursday, as noted within
today`s Day 4-8 SPC discussion along the cold front. Regardless,
thunderstorms are still possible that are expected to bring heavy
rains and some thunder through Thursday evening.

The front will pass through the region by Friday morning,
clearing the Mid-South of precipitation. The air mass behind the
front will be less Arctic than that of the one we are currently
dealing with. So, temperatures will only fall into the upper 20s
and low 30s Friday morning, warming into the 40s and 50s Friday
afternoon. The upper pattern is still expected to flatten out and
become zonal with low-amplitude ridging over the central CONUS.
Therefore, mild and relatively dry conditions are forecast
through the end of the period and into the following work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Late afternoon surface map showed a 1042mb surface pressure ridge
centered over central IL. A ridge axis extended from the center
to the southwest, across southern MO. This airmass was of Arctic
origin and very dry.

The ridge axis will pass through the Midsouth overnight,
resulting in light and variable winds and continued VFR. By
Monday afternoon, southwesterly return flow will develop over the
Midsouth as the ridge lifts away from the region.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry
airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will
be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-70%
chance of wetting rains.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ010>013-
     015>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB