Forecast Discussion
771 FXUS64 KMEG 240449 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1049 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1048 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday morning with lows in the teens and 20s, with a warming trend into the 60s by midweek. - Rain chances (70% chance or greater) will return Thursday with a cold front. There will most likely be a few thunderstorms, but severe weather chances are very low (less than 5%). - Dry and warm conditions return Friday after the front. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1048 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Latest surface analysis places a 1030 mb high centered over the Lower MS River Valley. As a result, mostly clear skies and mild winds will lead to prime radiational cooling conditions overnight. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s areawide, with the coldest conditions over west Tennessee. Tuesday morning will be the last morning below freezing for at least the next 7 days. In the afternoon, breezy conditions with southwest winds around 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will prevail as the pressure gradient tightens again along the Arctic high`s back side. There may be a small pocket around the Missouri Bootheel that approaches Wind Advisory criteria (25 MPH sustained, 40 MPH gusts) for a few hours, but current thinking is we will stay below criteria for Tuesday. As the Arctic high slides east on Tuesday, southerly flow returns and kicks off a significant warming trend. LREF guidance suggests an upper level ridge building in over the central CONUS starting Tuesday afternoon, which translates to dry conditions and warmer temperatures for the Mid-South due to anomalously warm air being advected via northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern shift will result in temperatures in the mid 60s (10+ degrees above normal) starting Wednesday through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The next disturbance will swing through with a cold front on Thursday. From a moisture standpoint, the preceding air mass is so dry that there will not be enough time for the low levels to moisten ahead of the frontal passage. There will be just enough moisture advection along a southwest wind to support shallow convection and light QPF on the order of half an inch through Friday morning. Digging into the parameter space, we`re looking at a very meager amount of instability on Thursday afternoon. Mean LREF SBCAPE is about 150 J/kg, which is enough for a few rumbles of thunder, mainly over north Mississippi. Even the 90th percentile only depicts about 400 J/kg of SBCAPE, which increases our confidence that Thursday`s cold front will not be accompanied by severe weather. Will certainly need to grab the umbrella (PoPs > 80%), but all things considered, it looks like a pretty benign system. The air mass behind the front is not particularly cold at all due to its Pacific origin. Things continue on the warming trend into the weekend, even nudging into the 70s on Saturday. Meteorological Spring starts on Sunday, and with it comes another weak disturbance bringing a slight chance (> 15%) of rain back into the forecast. Too early for details yet but it looks like we`ll be starting next work week off with an unsettled pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 High confidence (80%+) for VFR conditions prevailing at all sites through the 24-30 hr TAF cycle. High pressure has become centered over the Mississippi River Valley tonight, resulting in light and variable winds. Tomorrow, as the high shifts east and a Colorado low deepens, south to southwest winds will strengthen across the Mid-South. Sustained speeds 10- 17 kts with gusts 18-28 kts are expected by midday and will continue through the end of the TAF cycle. LLWS is expected tomorrow night as a LLJ develops across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Cold and dry conditions prevail as an Arctic air mass remains in place across the Mid-South. Expect minimum relative humidity values to be in the 20-30% range on Tuesday with elevated 20 ft winds in the 10 to 15 knot range. Southerly flow will return Tuesday afternoon, which will bring enough moisture back by Wednesday to increase RH back above 40 percent through Thursday. Thursday will be the next chance for wetting rains as a cold front passes through the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...JDS