Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS64 KMEG 191718
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1118 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Wet and unsettled weather returns on Thursday and will persist
  through the end of the work week.
- The upcoming weekend will be mostly dry with highs in the 60s
  and 70s.
- Another unsettled pattern emerges next week with
  showers and thunderstorms possible through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A stalled surface front remains centered over the Tennessee /
Mississippi border this morning, keeping overcast skies across
the majority of the Mid-South. Today`s afternoon highs will vary
depending on location due to the stalled boundary. For areas
along and north of I-40, expect highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Further south, highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Elsewhere in CONUS today, a large upper level trough continues to
churn over the Desert Southwest. This feature will eject eastward
overnight, providing enough momentum to send the aforementioned
stalled boundary north as a warm front. Significant moisture
return will occur overnight into Thursday with precipitable water
values reaching the 99th percentile by midday. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Thursday and Friday, with
1.5 inches of rain falling north of I-40. Severe storm chances on
Friday will be hampered by poor lapse rates and persistent cloud
cover, limiting destabilization. Rain chances finally taper off
on Saturday as a weak cold front swings through the region. A few
stray showers cannot be ruled out through Sunday, but expect the
majority of the weekend to be dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Next week, a rather progressive synoptic pattern emerges as yet
another upper level trough emerges from the Desert Southwest.
Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a leading shortwave ejecting
eastward towards the Mid-South early Monday. This disturbance
will allow elevated dewpoints to filter into the region, increasing
rain chances once again. Greater precipitation chances manifest
on Tuesday as the aforementioned trough finally reaches the Mid-
South. An associated surface low is forecast to develop in the
OK/TX vicinity early Tuesday and trek east. However, large spread
in the precise location of this low pressure makes it hard to
pinpoint where an associated warm-sector will emerge. This,
combined with the potential for ongoing morning convection and
increased cloud cover, keep severe storm chances low (