Forecast Discussion

128
FXUS64 KMEG 281054
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Gusty northeast winds will occur behind a cold front Saturday
  morning, leading to brisk wind chills near freezing.

- Elevated fire danger is expected across the entire Mid-South on
  Saturday due to very low humidity and dry fuels. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for north Mississippi.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15
  degrees above normal next week, with medium confidence for
  appreciable rainfall by midweek (Wednesday through Friday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A cold front is making its way through the Mid-South with a few
light showers along the leading edge of the boundary. Looking at
some point forecast soundings across our southern zones, the low
levels are expected to start drying out fairly quickly tonight as
the dry air associated with the front catches up. As a result,
QPF remains quite low (< 0.10", if that). Things will start to
clear out fairly quickly behind the front, leading to a chilly
Saturday morning with low temperatures in the mid 30s. A brisk
northeast wind with gusts upwards of 20 MPH will also add a bite
on top of the cold, dropping wind chills below freezing.

After the front passes, Saturday will be our coolest day of the
forecast period with highs (actually below normal for late March)
in the low to mid 60s. The airmass behind this cold front is
extremely dry, to the point where fire weather danger will reach
critical levels in the afternoon. The latest HREF dewpoints are
in the low to mid 20s Saturday afternoon, which tanks the
relative humidity values below 25%, especially across north
Mississippi where temperatures are a little warmer. Given the
added gusty winds behind the front and extreme drought littering
the area with dry fuels, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for
north Mississippi. This means that any kind of grass fire ignited
by a spark or open flame could spread quickly into a wildfire. A
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will most likely be necessary for
the rest of the area due to the very meager QPF doing almost
nothing to wet the fuels on Friday.

Elevated fire danger will continue into Sunday as temperatures
warm up but dewpoints remain low. A weak southerly component in
the surface winds will aid in moisture advection from the Gulf
Coast, which will help nudge RH values above 25% and should
negate the need for more fire weather headlines. Still exercise
caution with any kind of open flame and check with local
officials for county burn bans.

Next week starts off dry and mild as residual high pressure
migrates off to the east. A warming trend also takes hold as
return flow on the back side of the surface high sets in. We`ll
be back above normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low
80s, but plenty of sunshine. The next cold front is slated to
move through on Wednesday morning, bringing PoPs back up to the
50-60% range. This same front will most likely stall out on
Thursday, keeping us in a wet pattern through the end of the
week. Early ensemble profiles indicate a messy convective regime
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday along this stalled front. No one
particular day is jumping out for a synoptic severe weather
setup; it will most likely be several days of widespread showers
and thunderstorms until the front is able to clear the area.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Northeast winds will remain gusty, up to 20 kts, for the next few
hours before the pressure gradient finally begins to loosen.
Winds will then shift easterly as gusts drop out and winds
sustain to around 10 kts or less. Past 00Z, winds will shift more
southeasterly at around 5 kts across all terminals. VFR
conditions will remain across the airspace through the TAF
period.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Friday`s cold front was largely unsuccessful in providing a
wetting rain. Only about a trace to a couple hundredths were
observed, which will offer very little in the way of mitigating
fire weather danger Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
Saturday for a combination of very dry fuels, gusty
northeast/east winds, and very low relative humidity. MinRH
values are currently forecast to be between 20 and 25% Saturday
afternoon, however, dewpoints in this kind of post-frontal
airmass are notoriously overestimated in models. There is a low
chance of MinRHs dropping below 20% if more dry air is able to
mix down than the current forecast suggests. A Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement will most likely be needed for areas outside of
the RFW for non-critical but still elevated fire weather danger.

Fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday as temperatures
warm up but dewpoints remain low. A weak southerly component in
the surface winds will aid in moisture advection from the Gulf
Coast, which will help nudge RH values above 25% and should
negate the need for more fire weather headlines.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ002>006-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AEH