Forecast Discussion
836 FXUS64 KMEG 230453 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 - High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s through Thursday. - Unsettled weather will return Friday morning and afternoon with a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather. Additional thunderstorms are possible again Friday night into Saturday. - Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday. We continue to monitor this potential. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Mild conditions are expected to continue through Thursday as upper level ridging remains over the region. Troughing will continue to tread eastward, pushing the ridge away from the region through Friday. This will cause a southerly wind shift in response to deepening low pressure across the plains below the upper troughing. Temperatures will continue to rise into the mid 80s accordingly with a noticeable increase in moisture through the end of the week. Models continue to indicate that a broken line of convection will enter the region Monday morning from the northwest. Guidance indicates that the early Friday morning parameter space will be somewhat lackluster with most CAPE remaining elevated with less than 30 knots of bulk shear. Therefore, storms are not expected to pose a significant threat for severe weather through the morning hours. Depending on the forward speed of the front, a diurnal uptick in instability could allow for a reinvigoration of the line through the early afternoon. However, much of the dynamical support is expected to lag behind the morning convection, which should lead to a general weakening trend through the early afternoon. Another point to make is that the boundary accompanying the storms will stall somewhere within the Mid-South, which could act as a focus point for additional convection Friday evening and into Saturday morning. As such, much of the short-term guidance suite (REFS/HRRR/NAM) indicates an uptick in convection during this timeframe as the low level jet ramps up overnight. Confidence still remains low in this scenario given weak background dynamics and large variability in the position of the boundary. If storms are able to ignite overnight, they would most likely pose a damaging wind, hail, and local flash flooding threat. In any case, expect low-end damaging winds with morning convection and a conditional threat of additional severe storms overnight Friday and into Saturday morning. The overall synoptic pattern will continue to consist of upper level troughing to north and west with broad, quasi-zonal flow over the central CONUS through this weekend. The Mid-South will remain along the nose of the jet, where subtle shortwaves are expected to keep the forecast unsettled into next week with low - medium (less than or equal to 50%) PoPs Saturday and Sunday as thunderstorms. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur, but in general severe convection appears unlikely at this time Saturday and Sunday afternoon. On Monday morning, a stronger upper jet streak will have propagated into the Southern Plains from within the subtropical jet with strong ensemble support. Phasing with the polar trough to the north, this system will amplify as it continues east towards the Mid-South. A surface low will then deepen across the Midwest in response with a Pacific cold front extending south. Multiple days of antecedent, southerly advection will bring dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s as far north as the Ohio River, occupying the majority of the Mid-South. The latest LREF guidance paints a telling picture of this type of parameter space with a 70% - 80% chance of 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE and 40+ knots of bulk shear Monday afternoon and evening over the majority of the region. This is a huge signal for severe weather, especially at 4- 5 days out and signifies that Monday is likely to be a day to look out for. However, it does still appear too early to tell exactly which severe hazards will be most likely as models have yet to converge on key features such as the position of the surface low and potency of the low level jet. Regardless, the overlap of CAPE and shear does at least highlight the risk for severe wind and hail. Following this trend SPC has maintained the Slight (level 2/5) Risk for Monday as of last night. The Pacific front will pass through the region Monday night, but will stall before completely scouring the southern CONUS of moisture. Ensembles continue to be in agreement past Monday, keeping the upper jet quasi-zonal through the middle of next week. This would keep us in the unsettled pattern with low to medium (30% - 50%) PoPs through next Thursday as the front works its way back north. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Winds remain the primary aviation weather impact over the next 30 hours.. A tightening low level pressure gradient will promote gusts at MEM, JBR and MKL a few hours after sunrise, coinciding with a surface warm frontal passage. Latest high-res short term guidance depicts low chances (less than 10 percent) of -SHRA near the front. If -SHRA does occur, it will be of limited intensity and short-lived. Boundary layer winds will weaken near sunset Thursday, followed a few hours later by a developing low level jet. LLWS will be strongest at JBR between 03-09Z. Marginal LLWS shear is expected at MEM by 03Z, with some compression potential during the late evening inbound push. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Low fire danger expected Thursday as southerly winds increase moisture throughout the day, leading to minimum relative humidity values between 35% and 45%. 20 ft winds will increase to around 10 mph or above, especially across northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Low fire danger will continue into Friday as a line of showers and storms passes through the region alongside a continued increase in surface moisture. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB