Forecast Discussion
196 FXUS64 KMEG 091155 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 555 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - A cold front will bring multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall through early Saturday morning. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats, quick spin-up tornadoes are a secondary threat. - Temperatures return to near or below freezing Sunday and Monday mornings behind the front. - Dry conditions return for much of next week with seasonably cool temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 The active period we`ve been anticipating has finally arrived. A cold front stretching from Lake Michigan to the ArkLaTex has encouraged a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Mid-South. In addition, a tight pressure gradient (about 6 mb from corner to corner of the CWA) has created 20-25 MPH sustained southerly gradient winds with gusts up to 40 MPH. Given the localized and short-lived nature of these gradient winds, opted not to issue any headlines for this. Winds should be back well below criteria by 1AM at the latest. In the near-term, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to congeal into a SW-NE line over the next few hours as the front itself approaches. If persistence is any indication, shear is almost too strong for any organized thunderstorms to prevail this far south. Almost all of the instability is closer to the surface low over central MO/IL in a more balanced regime. With such a shear dominant environment, low-topped storms are pretty much getting sheared off at the top before they have a chance to grow into anything concerning. That being said, there are still several CAMs that want to hold onto this ongoing convection well into the early morning hours. This overnight frontal passage will likely be a scenario where most everything on radar is benign, but must be monitored closely for rogue overperforming storms. The 00Z models came in with a significantly different solution for Friday than any of the previous runs. Previous forecasts had this front stalling out until mid Friday morning, then finally getting a second wind and reigniting during peak heating in the afternoon, which is what drove the Slight Risk. Now it`s looking like the current FROPA will actually clear the area by Friday morning, allowing cooler, drier air to filter in, effectively cutting off the instability and moisture axis. Latest surface analysis from WPC supports this forecast development, and depicts a secondary surface low surging up from the ArkLaTex after 6PM Friday. Given the trend of drier air being allowed to filter in for most of the day Friday, the resurgence of the secondary surface low will make or break our severe weather threat for northeast Mississippi in the evening. If the low surges farther north into West Tennessee, our southeastern zones will be in a more favorable environment for severe weather. If it remains pinched off to the south, we`ll be on the cool/dry side of the system. This model trend is also the reason for a lower storm total QPF through Saturday; the axis of heavy rainfall has shifted into northern AL in the more favorable warm sector. PWATs are still above the 90th percentile for this time of year, so there`s still plenty of fuel for storms to become efficient heavy rainfall producers. Forecast rainfall totals through Saturday morning are now looking more on the order of 1-2", with a low chance of 3+" inches under training storms in northeast Mississippi. This could still lead to localized flash flooding issues, especially if this 1-2" falls over the course of a couple hours. Digging into the parameter space for Friday night, the 00Z deterministic CAMs and 00Z HREF (ensemble mean) depict almost no instability available past 3PM Friday. This is likely due to the aforementioned faster FROPA pinching off the moisture axis ahead of schedule. The axis of SRH and shear are plentiful way up north of I-40 Friday night, but none of that matters without any instability to tap into it. That being said, there`s still a low- end severe weather potential for tomorrow night since the secondary surface low will track through northeast Mississippi and could encourage another round of strong to severe storms. It`s also important to note that although the latest model guidance has shifted toward a less severe scenario, it`s the first suite of solutions to suggest this and should be taken with a grain of salt. Still prepare for damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and quick spin-up tornadoes. The front will finally clear the area by midday on Saturday. Much cooler air will send temperatures quickly back to near/below freezing on Sunday and Monday mornings following the cold front. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return through at least next Wednesday as the upper level pattern de-amplifies. Even then, a weak cold front only brings 15% PoP on Wednesday with negligible QPF. The long range outlook depicts seasonably cool temperatures and near normal precipitation due to zonal flow aloft. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 TSRA was ongoing at TUP at discussion time, part of a larger convective line extending southward into central MS. This activity was lifting east at 20KT or so. VFR should prevail across the area this afternoon, with some potential for brief MVFR CIGs behind a weak cold front / pressure trough passage. By late afternoon, this front will stall over central MS, with surface winds over the Midsouth veering to the east by 00z. Scattered -SHRA will likely develop south of a MEM- MKL line in association with a passing upper level wave. The presence of the stalled front and the rain over the cool side of the front will result in low MVFR to IFR CIGs in the late evening and overnight. A strong cold front will arrive around daybreak Saturday at MEM. Cooler and much drier air will follow, with CIGs lifting to high MVFR through the morning. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Wetting rain and thunderstorm chances increase Friday with a cold front that will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain. Dry and seasonably cool conditions return Saturday afternoon behind the cold front. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...PWB