Forecast Discussion
498 FXUS64 KMEG 151808 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - A pattern change will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. - An unsettled weather pattern late week will bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast into the weekend. Temperatures will also edge closer to normal by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 A gloomy day is on display at this hour as a surface low is currently churning over northeast Mississippi. A stratus shield and shower bands are currently rotating east around this low. Dry air, upper-level northwest flow, and surface high pressure are quickly building in behind this low, aiding in showers diminishing pretty rapidly across the Mid-South. Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours can be quantified pretty well north and south of I-40 with around 1.5-2.5" north and 0.10-0.5" south. As the aforementioned low exits east, past our area, showers will diminish along with it by mid afternoon. With the current placement of the surface low and a tight pressure gradient on the backside of it, winds will remain gusty, up to 35 mph, through this afternoon. Due to persistent cloud cover, rainfall, and lingering mist, temperatures will likely under perform today with much of the Mid-South seeing highs in the 50s and across north Mississippi in the low 60s. By this evening, northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will begin a transition in our weather pattern, decreasing winds and filtering in dry, warmer air. In this transition, light and variable winds, decent radiational cooling, and a low-level inversion along already saturated surfaces will create a susceptible environment for patchy to widespread fog overnight. Greatest fog potential will likely be north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line, where most of our rainfall occurred. Dense fog is not anticipated at this time. By daybreak tomorrow, surface high pressure and upper-level ridging will begin to overspread the Mid-South from the Upper Plains. As such, a warming trend will occur with temperatures well into the 60s and some areas across northeast Mississippi potentially approaching the low 70s. This warming trend and dry conditions will continue into Thursday as upper-level ridging persists and broadens over the region. Wednesday and Thursday will be flirting with record high temperatures in the 70s. Thursday will be the warmest over the next 7 days as warm air advection, elevated southwest winds, and a warm front lifting north aid in warming. It will feel like Spring by mid-week. A few isolated sprinkles can`t be ruled out Thursday morning as this warm front lifts, especially along the Tennessee River. Thursday evening, this anomalously warm trend is expected to begin breaking down as ensembles are in decent agreement that a few potent shortwaves will eject into the Upper-Mississippi Valley from the midwest. Meanwhile down at the surface, a surface low over the southern Great Lakes region looks to materialize as an attendant cold front pushes into the Middle Mississippi Valley. These systems will give lift to our next shot at showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and into Friday. Another wet weekend is on the horizon as well as a few shortwaves look to eject another system from the southern Plains late Friday and into Saturday. As we are still a little too far out to iron out the exact details on this late week system, deterministic (GFS and ECMWF) forecast soundings are displaying a decent swath of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and decent high falls Saturday. For now, however, just something to keep an eye on. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Rain and low (IFR) cigs continue to traverse the airspace. Rain will continue to drift out of the region into the afternoon, with gradual improvements in cigs to MVFR. These cigs will continue through the overnight period. There is still considerable uncertainty with the location of fog development overnight, but enough confidence to warrant TEMPO inclusion at JBR near sunrise tomorrow. Clouds will likely begin to sct by mid to late morning, with prevailing VFR conditions across the area around 15Z. As for winds, gusty (15 to 25 kts) winds continue across JBR, MEM, and MKL with calmer winds near TUP with the low pressure currently passing. Wind speeds will remain elevated through the afternoon, but will begin to dip back below 10 kts this evening. Winds will veer near the end of the current TAF period, becoming S/SE around 5 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1208 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through at least midweek, aided by recent wetting rainfall. 20ft winds will be elevated today as we sit on the backside of a low pressure system. Warm and dry weather will return tomorrow and persist through at least Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA