Forecast Discussion
352 FXUS64 KMEG 231115 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 515 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Cooler and dry conditions will wrap up our weekend. High temperatures will be in the low 60s to low 70s on Sunday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Monday, lasting into Tuesday. - Much cooler temperatures round out the end of next week with highs on Thanksgiving in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Low clouds and patchy fog are expected across the Midsouth Sunday morning as a weak trough shifts east across the Appalachians. Wind speeds should remain around 3-5 mph tonight limiting the threat of widespread fog. Surface high pressure and a ridge aloft will shift over the Mississippi River Valley over the next 24 hours resulting dry and cooler conditions to wrap up our weekend. Rain and thunderstorms return to the region late Monday as an upper-level trough shifts into the Plains setting up southwesterly flow across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley. Timing of the trough will be a limiting factor for the severe potential, but shear profiles and LREF joint probabilities indicate a low end chance of strong to severe storm from east- central Arkansas into north Mississippi. A midlevel jet streak around 50kts should help storms maintain healthy updrafts well after peak heating. SPC`s Monday outlook includes a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Monday mainly across the MS Delta. Conditions should favor storm clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. A cold front will move across the region Tuesday bringing an end to the showers and thunderstorms although some storms could linger in northeast Mississippi through sunset. Storm total precipitation should be highest in northeast Mississippi and east central Arkansas (up to 1.5 inches). Most of the region can expect around 1-1.25 inches. A dry and cooler weather pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will dip into the 50s Wednesday, with overnight lows in the 30s by Thanksgiving morning. For those with any outdoor plans for the holiday, plan for dry conditions and chilly temperatures. This pattern will continue into next weekend, with a high pressure in place across the region. Sirmon && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 MVFR/IFR low stratus is expected to persist this morning due to residual low level moisture and elevated NE winds. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR conditions this afternoon. Latest HREF guidance indicates a low chance (20-30 percent) of low ceilings developing late tonight at all sites except TUP. Confidence is too low to include BKN/OVC low ceilings in this TAF set at MEM, JBR, and MKL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40% through at least the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Monday and into Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CJC