Forecast Discussion
120 FXUS64 KMEG 051128 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week. - Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A cold frontal boundary continues to slowly cross the Mid-South at this hour with a large stratiform rain shield east of the Mississippi River. As the front continues to slowly dive southeast, drier and cooler conditions will filter in for the Easter holiday. All precipitation will come to an end by sunrise at the very latest and temperatures will warm into the 60s. Once precipitation comes to an end, dry conditions will prevail until the end of the work week and the focus will be on temperature and dewpoint trends. The Canadian air mass will encompass the region by Monday morning enhancing radiational cooling, which could lead to a light frost across northwest TN, with the LREF only displaying a 15% chance of temperatures less than 36F. Winds are expected to go calm for Monday morning, which could have temperatures trend cooler, so this is something to keep an eye on. Monday and Tuesday will be exceptionally dry in terms of dewpoints resulting in RH values falling below 30%. While some areas received beneficial rainfall, and winds are not expected to be too gusty, please use caution when burning with low relative humidity values and head to any local burn bans. High temperatures will hover around normal to slightly below through midweek with cool mornings. Surface high pressure will be the dominating feature of this forecast until Wednesday when the region will reside on the back side of the high and southerly flow returns. WAA will return and will allow temperatures to creep back above normal with temperatures being 10-15 degrees above normal by the weekend. Of course with the return of moisture, showers and thunderstorms chances will also return to the forecast for the weekend. Long term guidance still has many discrepancies on weekend rainfall chances, so for now, be sure to enjoy the cooler and dry weather. DNM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A dry polar airmass will bring VFR to the Midsouth over the next 30 hours. Gusty north winds will be the primary weather impact through late this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A dry air mass will move into the area with MinRHs around 30 percent. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize Sunday through Tuesday with warming temperatures. Some areas received beneficial rainfall and may prohibit higher concerns until moisture begins to return by late week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB