Forecast Discussion

920
FXUS64 KMEG 242333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and
  Christmas Day, lasting through Sunday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A weak stationary front was located across Missouri and the
western Ohio Valley this morning. This front will lift north
today. A 1028 mb surface high is situated along the Gulf coast,
while an anomalous upper-level ridge is centered over the western
Gulf into the Arklatex. Increasing amounts of sunshine are
expected today, and this will lead to near-record high
temperatures. This pattern will remain in place through Saturday
and perhaps even Sunday. Periods of morning stratus are likely
that should break up each afternoon. High temperatures are
expected to climb well into the 70s each day, combined with lows
only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We used a blend of NBM and
NBM75 for high temperatures through Saturday. This will likely
lead to record high temperatures each afternoon and record high
minimum temperatures each morning.

A strong cold front will push through later on Sunday. Models
have slowed this front down, which may allow us to squeak out one
more mild and mostly dry day. Severe chances with this front are
minimal (