Forecast Discussion
607 FXUS64 KMEG 031742 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1142 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Light and steady rainfall will continue through late Tuesday night across the Mid-South. Rainfall will aid in wintry precipitation melting. - Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures dipping back down below freezing each morning. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Surface analysis as of 10 AM shows a warm front near the MO Bootheel. Mesoanalysis across West TN does show an increase in mid-level instability as lapse rates are near 6.5C/km. Due to this increase in elevated instability, a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon as showers cross the area. This more convective regime may increase rain totals across West TN as rain rates will increase in any thunderstorms. This showery activity will slowly be pushed east as a cold front is currently near the AR/OK borders. The cold front will clear the Mid-South by midnight tonight and cease rain activity. Lingering cloud coverage does look to stick around for most of the night into Wednesday morning, which would increase the likelihood of temperatures remaining near or above freezing overnight. Rainfall today will aid in the melting of snow/sleet/ice, but this activity will not be enough to get rid of it completely. The cold front will bring colder air, but not as bitterly cold or prolonged as previous weeks. High temperatures on Wednesday will reside on the chillier side with temperatures near or above freezing along the KY/TN and AR/MO borders to the mid 40s across north MS.Thursday morning will be the coldest of the forecast package as subsidence of the cold air mass centers right over the region. Temperatures Thursday morning will be in the teens and 20s. Thankfully, the cold will be short lived as a weak warm front traverses north across the region on Friday. Probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees on Friday are greater than 35% from Tupelo, to Memphis, to Jonesboro and south of this line. The parent low of the aforementioned Friday warm front will quickly send a weak cold front through on Saturday. Though cooler, temperatures on Saturday will still be pleasant with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Sunday will rebound from Saturday and potentially be warmer than Friday as probabilities of exceeding 60 degrees are greater than 40% for almost the entire region, with the exception of extreme NW TN and the MO Bootheel. It does look like this warmer pattern will be here to stay through at least mid February as the CPC outlooks the entire Mid- South with a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures through Feb 16. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Looks like guidance from this morning came in a little too bullish on visibilities and coverage/intensity of precip associated with this frontal passage. Did some minor scaling back of reductions in visibility and adjusted precip timing/intensity to better match recent observations for the 18Z cycle. However, ceilings have been very well forecasted thus far. Current thinking is the IFR cigs will overspread the airspace until mid afternoon, further dropping to LIFR during the evening. Still thinking the low stratus will likely stick around longer than models suggest given the historical precedent with this type of cool season system, but it may be a scenario where ceilings improve for a few hours overnight and then tank again early Wednesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Rain showers will continue through tonight with wetting rain conditions expected areawide. Subfreezing temperatures will return Wednesday and Thursday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CAD