Forecast Discussion
046 FXUS64 KMEG 022339 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 539 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 - Showers will continue to overspread the Mid-South this evening. - A cold front will bring a brief cooldown to near-normal temperatures over the weekend. - Well-above-normal temperatures will return by the start of next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Rain chances begin to increase again late Wednesday and into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 The latest NQA radar sweep indicates light rain overspreading much of the Mid-South from the west/southwest. This influx of precipitation and moisture is being aided by a surface low, currently over the ArkLaTex region, and an attendant warm front. Current surface analysis also indicates a nearly stationary cold front, currently draped just north of the I-40 corridor. As we move into the afternoon hours, this front will give lift to more widespread showers over West Tennessee. South of this cold front, a decent swath of warm air advection will move over north Mississippi, aiding decent rainfall rates as well as open a small window for a thunderstorm or two this afternoon into evening. Severe chances anywhere over the Mid-South today, however, remain slim to none as persistent cloud cover will lead to a lack of daytime heating, as well as forecast sounding are hinting at only up to 250 J/kg of MUCAPE over north Mississippi. Despite forecast PWATs around 1.25", nearing the 95th percentile for this time of year, forecast storm total rainfall amounts only equate to only about 0.25"- 0.7" today. Shower chances should taper off by midnight as the aforementioned cold front moves southeast, past our area. As showers begin to diminish over northeast Mississippi, patchy fog may spread over this area and continue through the overnight hours as a very shallow low-level inversion sets in. If fog does form over northeast Mississippi, it is expected to lift by sunrise. A cool airmass and northwest flow will follow this cold front Saturday bringing our afternoon highs temperatures near-normal, in the mid 40s to lower 60s. Come Sunday, cool surface high pressure will build in, cooling temperatures a little bit further with highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Sunday morning will be pretty chilly with lows north of the Tennessee and Mississippi at or below freezing and south near or at freezing temperatures. This weekend cooldown will be very brief, however, as upper-level ridging begins to build in and south/southwest winds begin to usher in warmer air. Temperatures will quickly transition to well- above-normal with highs in the 60s and lower 70s through at least the end of the workweek. Dry weather will persist through mid- week ahead of our next system Thursday. Though we are still a little too far out to iron out the exact details of this next system, ensembles indicate a seemingly positively tilted trough ejecting from the southwestern CONUS into the Upper-Mississippi Valley. A surface low also looks to push in from the Rockies with an attendant cold front. However, the set up of this next system could change drastically by next Thursday. For now, we know shower and occasional thunderstorm chances (30-50%) are increasing to round out next workweek. Be sure to stay tuned for further details in the coming days. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 IFR to MVFR through most of the TAF cycle as a mid-level disturbance shifts into north Alabama and a positively-tilted trough approaches from the west. The trough will shift east of the Mississippi River Valley tomorrow afternoon resulting in a change to VFR conditions. North winds around 10kts will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited through the weekend as minimum relative humidity values will be >=50%, aided by today`s wetting rainfall. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures through Sunday. 20 ft winds will remain light through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JDS