Forecast Discussion
204 FXUS64 KMEG 071706 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1106 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will start out the work week with daily rain chances beginning Tuesday night. - Storm total rainfall through Friday will top out at 1 inch. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 The Mid-South currently sits under northwest flow aloft with a reinforcing surface front situated right along the TN/KY border. Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than forecast so opted to raise afternoon highs to the low to mid 50s. Several shortwaves will impact the Mid-South over the coming week, with the first beginning late Sunday. This system will provide just enough support to lift a warm front into the area on Monday. Warm and moist air will funnel into the Mid-South by the afternoon hours, landing highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. This temperature regime will remain in place on Tuesday, though the latest guidance keeps high temperatures below record-setting level. A rainy forecast will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave and attendant cold front eject from the Rockies. As this system approaches the Mid-South, plentiful moisture will exist to encourage shower development. This activity will continue through Wednesday with the aforementioned front stalling somewhere along the TN/MS border. For those on the southern edge of this stalled front, the rest of the week will be filled with daily rain chances and afternoon highs 10 degrees above normal. Areas behind the front will also experience daily rain chances, though high temperatures will remain seasonal. Storm total rainfall through Friday will max out at around 1 inch. The upcoming weekend continues to look wet and unsettled with another shortwave arriving by Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out Saturday morning, but any severe weather is not anticipated. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 High confidence (>90%) that VFR conditions will persist through the period, supported by a weak high pressure system over the region. North to northeast winds at 5-7 knots are expected this afternoon, becoming light tonight. Southerly winds will return tomorrow at 5-7 knots as the center of high pressure shifts east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026 Dry conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon. During this time, 20ft winds will remain less than 10mph and MinRH will be above 50 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday night and will persist through the end of the week. Fire weather concerns are minimal. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS