Forecast Discussion
300 FXUS64 KMEG 131148 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 648 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Rain chances return Monday as isolated showers and thunderstorms move into the Mid-South. Rainfall totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. - Dry and warm conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday with near-record highs in the forecast. - Unsettled weather returns for the end of the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 As of 11PM, radar imagery depicts an area of showers over central Arkansas, trekking northeast. This activity is dissipating as it approaches the Mississippi River with the nearest lightning strike over Hot Springs, AR. Given this continued downtrend, made edits to tonight`s rain chances and pulled out the thunder risk. Additional rain chances will materialize after sunrise as a weak disturbance, embedded within southwest flow aloft, moves over the region. Typical diurnal trends will increase thunder chances at this time, though widespread rainfall is not anticipated. Instead, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will impact areas east of the Mississippi River by midday, dissipating in the evening. Rainfall totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. Dry conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level ridging prevails. Well above normal temperatures will occur each day with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Our next weather producing system will form leeward of the Rockies on Wednesday and trek over Nebraska and Iowa as a shortwave trough. Guidance continues to increase rain chances locally late Wednesday into Thursday. There does exist potential for severe storms Thursday, but the precise impacts will vary depending on timing of storms. If storms move through the area in the morning, the environment will struggle to produce strong to severe storms. A few damaging wind gusts can`t be ruled out in the morning, but overall severe weather potential is marginal at this time. If storms linger into the late morning and afternoon hours, the environment will be much more conducive for severe storms. This is reflected well on the latest LREF probabilities, which depict nearly an areawide 50% chance for overlapping severe ingredients Thursday afternoon. It remains too early to tell the exact impacts with this system, but the bottom line is that late Wednesday into Thursday will feature isolated storms. Rain totals will remain minimal during this time, resulting in little improvement in the current drought conditions. Upper level ridging will quickly build into the Mid-South on Friday, allowing temperatures to soar well above normal. The latest NBM data suggests a 40% chance of temperatures east of the Mississippi River reaching 90 degrees on Friday. Should this occur, it would beat our average first 90 degree day of the calendar year by over a month. Fortunately, a cooldown is on the horizon as long range guidance depicts a cold front swinging through next Saturday. Given the anomalously warm temperatures and the time of year, severe storm chances will be monitored in coming updates. For now, expect next weekend to be rainy followed by cooler temperatures. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A wet and unsettled pattern will emerge today with two separate rounds of -SHRAs associated with an incoming weak cold front: one ongoing this morning and another late this afternoon/evening. Given how narrow the window of instability is for this afternoon and how sparse the CAMs suggest coverage will be, opted not to include TSRA for the second round today but will monitor for amendments. Ceilings are expected to stay VFR for the majority of the period, but a few brief wobbles to MVFR cannot be ruled out, especially at JBR and TUP. Gusty south winds prevail again this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts, diminishing to 8-10 kts overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Low level moisture will increase Monday, allowing RH values to rise above 30 percent. Dry conditions will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday, but rising humidity will curb fire weather concerns. Our next shot at wetting rainfall will be Thursday into Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD