Forecast Discussion

618
FXUS64 KMEG 190451 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will be in place
  Sunday and Monday behind Saturday`s cold front. Increased fire
  weather concerns will be present through Tuesday.

- The remainder of the workweek will be mostly dry with highs in
  the low to mid 80s.

- The end of the workweek and into the weekend will become
  increasingly more wet and unsettled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today`s cold front sits just to the southeast of the Mid-South
with current temperatures, as of 10PM, in the upper 40s to mid
50s, much cooler than 24 hours ago. A few lingering, very light
post-frontal showers remain, predominantly over northeast
Mississippi. Mist is also present across much of the area as
dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 40s. As we head into the
overnight hours, dewpoints will begin to crash as cool, dry air
continues to filter in. Decreased dewpoints should inhibit much
fog development, however, saturated soils from today`s rainfall
may lead to patchy fog overnight as winds go light and calm and
skies continue to slowly clear. If fog does develop, it will lift
shortly after sunrise. Tomorrow morning`s lows will be in the 40s
with some areas along the Tennessee and Kentucky border
potentially seeing lows in the upper 30s, aided by a swath of
CAA.

Tomorrow`s highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
cooler and drier air in place and as upper-level northwest flow
begins to build over the region. Fire weather concerns will begin
to increase tomorrow and Monday as minimum relative humidity
values drop into the 25-30% range. Yesterday`s wetting rainfall
did help to saturate soils slightly, and in combination with
light winds will likely inhibit a need to issue a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement tomorrow. Fire danger concerns do increase
further, however, on Tuesday as southwest winds begin to increase
above 10 mph with wind gusts up to 25 mph and ten hour dead fuel
moisture reaches around 10%. A warming trend will also begin
Tuesday as return flow and elevated southwest winds usher in
warmer air. This trend will continue into mid-week as upper-level
ridging from the west begins to build across the Middle
Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Afternoon highs will return to the
low to mid 80s across the Mid-South. This warming trend will also
increase dewpoints Wednesday and through the rest of the 7 day
period, decreasing fire weather concerns.

Heading into the latter half of the work-week, ensembles are
indicating a more wet and unsettled shift in the weather pattern
indicating a weak trough and cold front will begin to break down
the aforementioned upper-ridging. However, we`re still a bit too
early to iron out the exact details on this late week system. We
do know that rain chances will begin to increase, hopefully
helping to chip away at our ongoing drought conditions.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR prevailed across the Midsouth late Saturday evening. Surface
winds had become light at all but TUP, where a few gusts near
20KT continued.

The primary concern overnight remains fog potential following
Saturday`s rainfall. GOES IR satellite imagery shows mid and high
clouds will likely clear JBR and MKL prior to sunrise. MOS-based
guidance carries no fog potential at these terminals overnight,
but there is some concern that as skies clear and winds remain
light, dewpoints won`t cool as rapidly as LAMP guidance suggests.
For the other terminals, the MEM urban heat island and the
delayed clearing of clouds at TUP should diminish fog potential.

Sunday will bring VFR, as a dry midcontinental airmass settles
in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Fire weather concerns will be on the rise through Tuesday as
minimum relative humidity values drop to 25-30% each day. Recent
wetting rains will likely negate the need for a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement through Monday. However, increasing 20ft winds
and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent will likely necessitate a
need for fire weather products on Tuesday. Increased dewpoints
return Wednesday, decreasing fire weather concerns.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB