Forecast Discussion
032 FXUS64 KMEG 260523 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected each day through early Sunday. - A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week. - The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens each day early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 It`s a quiet but moderately windy night across the Mid-South. Temperatures are unseasonably mild with readings in the low to mid 60s. The latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel reveals low status overspreading the area from the west. Aloft, high cirrus are also spreading across the region associated with a weak shortwave seen in GOES Water Vapor Imagery. A few light returns are noted on radar, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Light fog will affect portions of northeast Mississippi in the short term that are currently clear. Dense fog is not anticipated tonight as there is a high probability that low stratus and strengthening winds will overspread the region over the next couple of hours. Nonetheless, we added light fog to areas near the Tennessee River for the next couple of hours. Mild conditions will persist across the region Friday through early Sunday as upper level ridging remains persistent. Some locations will continue to flirt with temperature records. There is a medium to high signal for dense fog developing along and north of I-40 by Saturday morning as winds go calm under mostly clear skies. A significant polar front will push through the region Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Widespread rainfall will move through the region, however, lightning and severe weather are not expected. Behind the front, a nearly 40 degree temperature drop will occur. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to break 40 degrees along and north of I-40 with only lower 40s to the south. Wind will be a factor early Tuesday morning as air temperatures fall into the lower 20s and wind chills dip into the low to mid teens. The Mid- South will remain entrenched in northwest flow through at least the middle of next week keeping conditions dry with near or slightly below normal temperatures. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 A pesky MVFR stratus deck is expected to linger across the airspace through the afternoon, clearing west to east. Intermittent IFR conditions are not out of the question, but confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Fog is expected to develop at TUP over the next few hours, but dense fog is not anticipated. LLWS will impact JBR/MEM through the overnight hours. Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts through the afternoon hours, aided by strong southwesterly flow. There is a pretty decent signal for fog development across all terminals overnight Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Fire danger will remain very low into the upcoming weekend as humidity will remain at or above 60 percent. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected through early Sunday. A high chance (80-90% chance) of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by arctic air for early next week. Subfreezing temperatures will return by Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH