Forecast Discussion
714 FXUS64 KMEG 020534 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1134 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 - Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain chances returning Tuesday. - The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 10 PM radar imagery depicts a batch of snow flurries moving across the Mid-South. This activity will continue through sunrise, leaving behind little to no accumulations. Another chilly morning is anticipated as lows fall into the 20s areawide. Impressive warming will occur through the afternoon as southwest winds advect warm and moist air into the region. Afternoon highs will top out in the 40s and 50s, allowing residual snow and ice to resume melting. Our weather pattern will change on Tuesday as a shortwave and attendant cold front trek over the Mid-South. Ahead of this system, moist air will overspread the region with precipitable water values climbing to the 90th percentile. Rain chances will increase in the morning with light showers developing from west to east. This activity will linger into Tuesday night, though guidance continues to decrease totals with each model run. The latest LREF shows a 30% chance of greater than 0.5" of rain falling in northeast Mississippi through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, these probabilities decrease. Behind the front, temperatures will drop well below normal. Thursday morning will be the chilliest as lows bottom out in the upper teens to low 20s. Luckily, these temperatures won`t last long as southwest winds return by Thursday afternoon. Friday is forecast to be the warmest day in recent memory as highs climb into the 50s and 60s. Long range guidance continues to hint at another frontal passage on Saturday. Run-to-run inconsistencies regarding precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday make the forecast a bit murky into next week. However, climate models continue to favor slightly above normal temperatures through the second week of February. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 There is high confidence (90%) that VFR conditions will persist over the next 30 hours. The main change to the 06Z TAFs is the introduction of low level wind shear (LLWS) to MEM around midnight. LLWS of 40 knots will overspread JBR, MKL, and TUP late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the south as surface high pressure slides east Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated this week due to light winds and MinRH above 45 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...AC3