Forecast Discussion
748
FXUS64 KMEG 161129
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
529 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
- A pattern change will bring dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. Near
record high temperatures are expected Thursday.
- An unsettled weather pattern after midweek will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances back to the forecast into the weekend.
Temperatures will also edge closer to normal by the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 417 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Clear skies, nearly calm winds, and moisture from yesterday`s
rainfall trapped below a strong subsidence inversion has resulted
in dense fog developing overnight across east/northeast Arkansas,
the Missouri Bootheel, most of West Tennessee, and portions of
northwest Mississippi. GOES night/fog product shows the back edge
of the low stratus south of a line from Lambert to Iuka,
Mississippi. Conditions will be monitored over the next few hours
for any potential expansion or extension in time of the advisory.
CJC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
A stratus deck over much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi
is nudging its way east, despite a northeasterly component to the
850 to 700mb flow noted on the Little Rock 00Z sounding.
Jonesboro, AR and Memphis have already cleared out and it appears
Jackson, TN will follow suit over the few hours. Winds have
weakened considerably west of the Mississippi River, but remain
elevated, generally 8-12kts east of the River. Clearing skies,
abundant ground moisture and light wind across east Arkansas
suggest that fog may develop overnight, but NBM guidance as well
as the HRRR keep it confined to far northeastern Arkansas. NBM
indicates less than a 20% chance for visibility less than 1 mile.
We will just maintain the patchy or areas of fog late tonight
into Monday morning for now.
The forecast Monday through Wednesday looks dry as a ridge shifts
out of the Plains and over the Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures will trend warmer with highs reaching the low to
middle 70s by Wednesday and middle to upper 70s on Thursday. Much
of west Tennessee and north Mississippi are on track to reach
record high temperatures on Thursday. The current forecast of
77 degrees would tie the records at Memphis and Jackson, TN and
79 degrees would break the record by 2 degrees at Tupelo.
South winds will begin to strengthen on Tuesday and reach their
peak Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure off the Southeast Coast and a developing storm
system in the Plains. Current NBM guidance has sustained winds
around 20 kts over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel
with gusts near 30 kts. A wind advisory may be necessary (40%
chance) Thursday.
A positively tilted trough will shift out of the Plains and
across the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley Wednesday.
A secondary trough and 993mb surface low will take a track a bit
farther south Thursday. This feature will reach the middle
Mississippi River Valley Thursday afternoon and introduce our
next chance of rain and thunderstorms to the region. Conditions
do not look supportive of widespread severe thunderstorms at this
time, but CAPE is expected to
approach 350 J/kg with 0-3 km SRH near 200 m^2/s^2 so a few
strong to severe storms are possible (less than a 30 percent
chance for severe). A cold front will bring temperatures back
down into the low 60s to middle 70s Friday and lower any threat
of severe storms. Next weekend looks showery with milder
temperatures as a long wave trough shifts over the Mississippi
River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Clear skies, nearly calm winds, and yesterday`s rainfall resulted
in the development of fog occasionally dense overnight at MEM,
MKL, and JBR. IFR to VLIFR conditions are expected until 15Z.
GOES Night/Fog product trends suggest clearing at TUP between 13-
14Z. Thereafter, confidence is high for VFR conditions to return
for the remainder of the period with light winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through at least
midweek, aided by recent wetting rainfall. Warm and dry weather
will return Monday and persist through at least Wednesday. Rain
and thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth Thursday night and
linger through the weekend.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001-007.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>090.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC
