Forecast Discussion
036 FXUS64 KMEG 090552 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 - Benign weather will persist through the end of the week. - A warming trend continues, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by this weekend. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances rising. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 A peaceful overnight period is on tap for the Mid-South with mostly clear skies and light winds at the surface. Benign weather will continue through the end of the workweek as surface high resides over the eastern CONUS resulting in dry and mild weather through the end of the workweek. A warming trend will begin Friday as return flow on the backside of the aforementioned high along with a strengthening upper-level ridge moves over the region. By the weekend, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s, flirting with record-breaking highs. However, persistent dry air will result in pleasant humidity. Next week, however, is a different story. The weather pattern becomes unsettled as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds east over the Gulf states and southwest flow begins to build over the Mississippi Valley downstream from a potent trough over California. Persistent ridging is expected to keep areas mainly south of I-40 dry. Meanwhile, for areas north, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase (25-40%) late Sunday and into early Monday, aided by a few embedded shortwaves increasing moisture. Come Tuesday, ensembles are hinting at troughing over California pushing southeast over New Mexico with a colocated surface low and attendant cold front. The conditions late Tuesday and into early Wednesday could become favorable for severe weather development. LREF joint probabilities of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30kts are around 25-30%, mainly west of the Mississippi River and into the Delta region. Moving into the middle of next week, the previously mentioned cold front and surface is forecast to approach the Mid-South, and keep active weather over the region. At the minimum, weather will become much more summer-like with temperatures in the 80s along with higher humidity. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Persistent high pressure off to our east will prevail southerly winds through the period between 5 - 10 knots, occasionally gusting above 15 knots at MEM/JBR Thursday afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease in intensity by 00z Friday while remaining southerly through the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with minimum relative humidity values around 30% each afternoon. There is a 30- 40% chance for MinRH to fall below 30% both Friday and Saturday as high temperatures climb into the 80s. 20 foot winds will largely remain below 10mph through Saturday. Due to persistent dry weather and drought conditions, marginal fire weather danger will exist over the Mid-South through Saturday. Stronger winds will arrive Sunday, which will increase confidence for elevated fire weather danger along and north of the I-40 corridor. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JAB