Forecast Discussion
698 FXUS64 KMEG 201729 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 - Bouts of isolated showers will continue through early Saturday morning as a few weak disturbances move through the region. - Below freezing temperatures will return Monday and Tuesday mornings, with a warmup starting midweek. - Rain chances (30 percent or more) will return by Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 Much drier air has been infiltrating the Mid-South behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Dewpoints have already dropped to the 20s and 30s, leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon. Despite the cold front drying things out, forecast surface analyses depict a warm front lifting north from the Gulf Coast late tonight. This will bring a second round of showers after 3PM. There is good agreement amongst the 12Z CAMs that spatial coverage should be mainly limited to north Mississippi. Given the dry air and very meager CAPE on the order of 100 J/kg tonight, any thunderstorms will most likely be confined to the southernmost zones. Elsewhere, expect just a light swath of showers to lift north through the area until about midnight. With how dry most of the vertical profile is, any convection will be shallow and single-celled, leading to very limited QPF of less than half an inch. Saturday starts off a bit unsettled as some light showers linger in the soupy airmass left by the warm front. By mid morning, a secondary cold front will finish the job and sweep out the rest of the precip. This begins our brief cold snap for a few days. With strong CAA and eventual radiational cooling, Monday and Tuesday will be our coldest mornings of the period. Temperatures will drop to the 20s with wind chills in the teens under clear skies and light winds on Monday and Tuesday mornings. While this is not at all uncommon for February, it`s been a few weeks since we saw this kind of cold weather and may come as an unpleasant reminder for some that it is still winter. LREF guidance suggests an upper level ridge building in over the central CONUS starting Tuesday afternoon, which translates to warmer temperatures for the Mid-South due to anomalously warm air being advected via northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern shift will result in temperatures in the mid 60s (10+ degrees above normal) starting Wednesday through the rest of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft is frequently a double-edged sword for us; we get to enjoy the more mild temperatures but have to watch out for active systems ejecting from the northern Plains. The energy and residual precip associated with these systems generally follows a trajectory directly toward the Mid-South under this type of upper level pattern. This looks to be the case next week as we are carrying at least a 30% PoP from Wednesday onward just due to weak disturbances being advected into the region. The next large-scale cold front looks to swing through on Thursday, though temperatures aren`t expected to take much of a plunge behind it due to its Pacific origin. The extended outlook still depicts at least a 60% chance of above normal temperatures for the next 6-10 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 There is high confidence that weak surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions over the region today. Midlevel clouds will increase this evening as a weak warm front lifts north into the area. High-based scattered SHRA will be mainly confined to north MS and have limited impacts to aviation. There is low confidence that isolated post-frontal -SHRAs will affect aviation Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 A couple of disturbances will move through the region through Saturday morning. However, there is high confidence that wetting rain chances will remain confined to north Mississippi. Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. Humidity and temperatures increase in tandem midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CAD