Forecast Discussion
755 FXUS64 KMEG 030537 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 - Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal) will continue through Friday, approaching record highs at Memphis and Tupelo. - Rain chances will increase again Friday night through Saturday evening. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly across north Mississippi. Damaging wind is the primary hazard. - Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Scattered showers continue across the Mid-South this evening within the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone traversing the Upper Midwest. From a surface low over southern WI, a cold front extends south and west into the Southern Plains, with a warm front draped across the southern Great Lakes. Ahead of the cold front, a seasonably moist air mass is in place with precipitable water (PWAT) edging up toward 1.4" as far north as Memphis. Based on nearby sounding climatology, this is well above the 90th percentile for early April. Most of the lift associated with the compact shortwave trough lifting into the western Great Lakes remains well north of the CWA, limiting instability and large- scale ascent across the Mid-South. As this trough continues to lift northeast, we`ll experience a period of subsidence as mid-level heights build slightly. This will help to suppress diurnal convection on Friday, keeping most of the area dry. That said, a few showers are possible (20-40%) with a low probability (20% or less) for a thunderstorm given the warming mid-level temperatures. South winds will not be quite as strong tomorrow but will still be gusty at times, especially in northeast AR and southeast MO, where gusts may still eclipse 30 mph in the afternoon. We`ll also remain quite warm with highs in the 80s. Memphis and Tupelo will make a run at daily records (record highs are 86 and 87 degrees, respectively). Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Saturday as a potent upper-level trough ejects from the Plains. Weak perturbations in the southerly flow aloft ahead of this system will enhance lift across the region beginning Friday night, with stronger forcing arriving during the afternoon and evening as the main vort lobe sweeps across the Mid MS Valley. This system will drive a cold front through the Mid-South during the day Saturday, serving as the primary focus for organized convection. The CWA will be favorably located within the right entrance region of the upper-level jet on Saturday afternoon, with mesoscale ascent enhanced along the cold front via the direct thermal circulation. Current guidance indicates SBCAPE on the order of 750-1500 J/kg, but the greatest instability isn`t well aligned with the favorable deep-layer shear (farther north). This is supportive of the current marginal risk for damaging wind. Regardless of the severe weather potential, most of the area will likely experience a wetting rainfall. NAEFS PWAT percentiles exceed the 90th percentile of early April climatology (1.50") and frontal forcing should provide a broad rainfall footprint. NBM probabilities for at least 1" of rain are in the 70-80% range as of this evening, indicating most areas will pick up 1-2". Localized higher amounts are possible with a ceiling generally at or below 3". Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast Saturday night with cooler and drier air advecting into the region for Sunday. Benign post-frontal weather will prevail Sunday into early next week. Winds will be from the north around 10 mph on Sunday with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 60s, which is just slightly below normal. The dry air mass will support larger-than- typical diurnal temperature ranges with highs gradually warming through the 70s by late week, but low temperatures will dip into the 40s for several nights early in the week. In fact, some areas, mainly across portions of West TN into extreme northeast AR, may dip into the upper 30s one or two mornings. NBM probabilities indicate roughly a 25% chance of a light frost in these areas (temperature 36F or cooler w/ radiational cooling conditions). It`s certainly something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, rain-free weather will persist most of the week. While wind speeds do not appear to be an issue Monday-Wednesday, the dry air will support relative humidity dipping into the 25-30% range in some areas. Given current drought conditions, this could result in minor fire weather concerns. MJ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Rain showers have continued to become more isolated through the night with sparse redevelopment across the region. Models have backed off from more widespread rain shower development through the night, but the aforementioned radar trends allow for the continuation of PROB30s at MEM/MKL for -SHRA. Otherwise, southerly gusty winds and LLWS will prevail through tonight. Short-term models also develop MVFR CIGs at MEM/JBR between 10z - 12z with a TEMPO at MKL through 16z - 18z. Diurnal mixing will then lift CIGs to VFR with an increase in wind gusts to around 20 knots that are expected to gradually subside towards 00z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Gusty south winds are expected again Friday, albeit not quite as strong as what we saw Thursday. Minimum relative humidity will generally remain above 40%, with pockets of slightly drier conditions across northeast MS and southwest TN. Rain chances will be low most of the day Friday, increasing Friday night through Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves across the area. Rain will taper off by Saturday night with dry and cooler weather Sunday through the middle of next week. The dry air mass next week will support minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range Monday through Wednesday across much of the Mid-South. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...JAB