Forecast Discussion
128 FXUS64 KMEG 281742 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1142 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Mostly dry and warm conditions will persist into Sunday with highs in the 70s. - Unsettled weather will start Sunday night and persist into the following weekend due to a series of cold fronts and upper level systems. - There is a medium chance (50-60%) of heavy rain later next week and weekend, mainly along and north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 All is calm and clear across the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to surface ridging in the wake of a cold front. Today looks like a spectacular last day of meteorological winter; expect plenty of sunshine with temperatures near 70 degrees and dewpoints sitting in the pleasant realm of the mid to upper 30s. The next 24 hours look warm and mostly dry (< 15% PoP) before a more active pattern kicks off tomorrow night. The first of a series of cold fronts will approach from the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon, eventually stalling out along the I-40 corridor on Monday morning. This first round of precip looks rather benign given the lack of upper level support and meager low level moisture (PWATs near normal around 0.9 inches). Expect mainly scattered showers to bring, at most, a quarter inch of rain by Monday evening. After a brief break on Tuesday, a noteworthy pattern shift begins to occur in the upper levels. 500 mb heights on the LREF depict a persistent troughing pattern to set up over the southwestern CONUS starting on Wednesday morning. This results in southwesterly flow aloft and resultant upper level divergence, both things that frequently go in tandem with a higher coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms when there is a messy surface pattern like the one that will materialize next week. A stationary front will yet again make a valiant attempt at swinging through on Wednesday, but eventually stall over central Missouri into the OH River Valley. Southerly flow at the surface combined with the upper level support will give way to an increase in showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday afternoon. Though there will most likely be severe weather farther west over the ArkLaTex, the kinematic support at the surface falls off quite a bit by the time convection makes it over to the Mid-South. Regardless, Wednesday begins a far more wet pattern than we have seen in a very long time. While the synoptic pattern remains loosely organized Thursday and Friday with ample moisture, we are carrying at least a 50% PoP for each 12 hour period. By this point, PWATs will surge above the 90th percentile of climatology aided by persistent moisture advection along south winds so QPF totals will be creeping up each day. The next bonafide cold front is forecast to sweep through next Saturday morning, bringing yet another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Joint probabilities for CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts (a good "first glance" proxy for general severe weather) are about 30% in the Delta per the LREF so this pattern will be one to watch. By the end of the forecast period, ensemble QPF totals are in the 2-3 inch range from Wednesday-Saturday, mostly along and north of I-40. CAD && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 No significant aviation weather impacts are forecast through this evening. A cold front will settle into the region Sunday morning, turning winds to the northeast. A few gusts appear likely at JBR after 15Z. For MEM and MKL, 20KT gust potential remains below 40% around 15Z, and less thereafter. A few high-based showers may enter the western MEM TRACON late Sunday afternoon. Chances of occurrence at the terminal as well as potential impacts appear minimal at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Very dry air will remain across the area this afternoon. Relative humidity values will drop to 30 percent or less along and south of I-40 as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 70s. 20ft winds will remain relatively light with recent rainfall mitigating the fire danger potential. Rain chances will gradually increase into next week as a series of upper-level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...PWB