Forecast Discussion
562 FXUS64 KMEG 061708 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1108 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week. Our warmest day will be Thursday as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Rain chances return on Thursday and will become more widespread late Thursday night into Friday. - A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place for the majority of the Mid-South on Friday. Damaging winds are the primary concern. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 Strong return flow at the surface and midlevels is yielding warmer temperatures today, with 10 AM observations running about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Further north, a shortwave and attendant cold front continue to push across the Midwest. This system will have minimal impacts in the Mid-South as the aforementioned front loses its forward propagation over north Mississippi early Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler in response to the weak front, but remain anomalously warm for this time of year. The main weather story will manifest on Wednesday as a closed upper level low forms off the coast of Baja California. This system will trek northeast into the Desert Southwest and transform into an open wave. A messy synoptic pattern materializes at this time as a longwave trough begins to form over the Rockies. The leading wave will begin to impact the Mid- South on Thursday, providing just enough support to lift the remnants of the aforementioned cold front north as a warm front. Hot and humid air will funnel into the Mid-South at this time with dewpoints surging above 60 degrees by midday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage Thursday afternoon, but given weak lapse rates and a lack of appreciable instability, severe storm chances are low (< 5%). The greater chance of severe storms will emerge on Friday as the trailing trough ejects over the Central Plains. A Slight Risk for severe storms remains in place for areas along and east of the Mississippi River Friday, but several caveats to storm development exist. The main hindrance will be lackluster instability with probabilities of greater than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE remaining around 10 percent in north Mississippi. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms Friday morning will also limit the upper bounds of instability potential by Friday afternoon, when another round of thunderstorms is anticipated. The latest RRFS depicts bulk shear in excess of 60 kts over northeast Mississippi by the evening hours. If lower end instability values do manage to develop, storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and a brief, spin-up tornado. One thing to note: CSU and CIPS machine learning models, along with the EFI/SOT depict a southerly shift in severe potential on Friday. Future outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center may trim the Slight Risk to focus more on our northeast Mississippi counties. Trailing showers and thunderstorms will exit the area by Saturday afternoon. The greatest storm total rainfall will manifest in northeast Mississippi, where up to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast. Flooding concerns remain minimal at this time due to our recent dry spell. Near normal temperatures return on the backside of this system with highs in the 40s on Sunday. The beginning of next week will feature a small warming trend with highs generally in the 50s. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 A persistent MVFR cloud deck remains, but will begin to lift over the next few hours. Conditions will go VFR thereafter, with southwesterly winds becoming light and variable overnight. Majority of the guidance does indicate fog developing overnight, especially across north MS and TUP. Have included MVFR/IFR conditions, but would not be surprised if conditions fall to LIFR at times between 09Z and 13Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50 percent through the end of the work week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. Gusty 20ft winds are anticipated on Thursday, with wetting rain chances returning in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CMA