Forecast Discussion
527 FXUS64 KMEG 161825 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Thursday could see record high temperatures with readings in the upper 70s and potentially reaching into the lower 80s. - An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday. Temperatures will also edge closer to normal by the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 After a foggy start this morning, we`re looking at a benign weather day as an upper-level ridge builds in from the High Plains and surface high pressure remains in place over the region. Today`s highs are expected to overperform initial NBM guidance as the ridge builds and clear skies help aid in daytime heating. Some areas, especially south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line will likely reach into the lower 70s today. Overnight, there is decent signal for patchy fog development, with the best chances west of the Mississippi River, as a mid- level inversion sets up. Dense fog could develop, mainly along and north of I-40. We`ll keep a close eye on this. Warm and dry weather will continue through much of Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge continues to broaden across the region with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Thursday will be flirting with record high temperatures aided by a decent swath of warm air advection, elevated southwest winds filtering in warmer air, and a surface warm front lifting north. A few areas over north Mississippi could see highs in the low 80s. It will feel like Spring. This warm front will also act as a lifting mechanism for moisture transport for a few isolated showers, mainly east of the Mississippi River, late Wednesday and into early Thursday morning. Shower chances (25-40%) will begin to increase once again tapping into present moisture and a weak shortwave looks to move over the Tennessee and Kentucky state line ahead mid afternoon Thursday. The aforementioned warm front and shortwave will precede a pattern shift Thursday evening. Ensemble members are in pretty good agreement that a negatively tilted trough and a colocated surface low will eject from the western Rockies into the southern Great Lakes region. Showers will become more widespread (50-70%) in nature with isolated thunderstorms Thursday evening. One final thing to note, the pressure gradient ahead of this negatively tilted trough will tighten Thursday afternoon, elevating surface winds with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory may be warranted as the latest LREF guidance has ~30% chance of wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Early Friday, an attendant cold front will begin pushing across the Mid-South with showers and thunderstorms continuing out ahead of it. Sufficient deep layer wind shear will be present both Thursday and into Friday, ahead of this cold front. However, forecast soundings do indicate the CAPE field will be slim to none. LREF guidance has 250 J/kg of SBCAPE both Thursday and Friday. Bottom line, a strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the cold front late Thursday and into midday Friday. However, most of the sufficient severe parameters will stay to our north as we remain capped. This cold front looks to move past our area by early Saturday morning, however, shower chances (35-50%) do continue as a shortwave looks to eject from the Plains. Bottom line, we`re looking at a wet end to the week. Upper-level northwest flow looks to quickly return after this next system by midday Sunday, diminishing shower chances. Cooler air looks to filter in early next week with temperatures near normal. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Conditions have returned to VFR across the airspace, after dense fog developed overnight. Models are picking up on the potential for patchy to locally dense fog to develop once again along with low cigs late tonight into tomorrow morning, so have included mention for MEM, MKL, and JBR for the time being. This will be something to watch for later TAF issuances. Any drops in flight category will quickly improve after sunrise, with VFR to the end of the TAF period once again. Winds will remain southerly and light through tomorrow morning, before picking up to between 10 to 15 kts generally after 17/16Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Fire weather danger will remain low through at least mid-week as minimum relative humidity values stay around or above 50%. A warming trend will continue through Thursday as a ridge builds in. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns late Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA