Forecast Discussion
556 FXUS64 KMEG 160503 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1103 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - A pattern change will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday. Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday. - An unsettled weather pattern after midweek will bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast into the weekend. Temperatures will also edge closer to normal by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 A stratus deck over much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi is nudging its way east, despite a northeasterly component to the 850 to 700mb flow noted on the Little Rock 00Z sounding. Jonesboro, AR and Memphis have already cleared out and it appears Jackson, TN will follow suit over the few hours. Winds have weakened considerably west of the Mississippi River, but remain elevated, generally 8-12kts east of the River. Clearing skies, abundant ground moisture and light wind across east Arkansas suggest that fog may develop overnight, but NBM guidance as well as the HRRR keep it confined to far northeastern Arkansas. NBM indicates less than a 20% chance for visibility less than 1 mile. We will just maintain the patchy or areas of fog late tonight into Monday morning for now. The forecast Monday through Wednesday looks dry as a ridge shifts out of the Plains and over the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs reaching the low to middle 70s by Wednesday and middle to upper 70s on Thursday. Much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi are on track to reach record high temperatures on Thursday. The current forecast of 77 degrees would tie the records at Memphis and Jackson, TN and 79 degrees would break the record by 2 degrees at Tupelo. South winds will begin to strengthen on Tuesday and reach their peak Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and a developing storm system in the Plains. Current NBM guidance has sustained winds around 20 kts over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with gusts near 30 kts. A wind advisory may be necessary (40% chance) Thursday. A positively tilted trough will shift out of the Plains and across the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley Wednesday. A secondary trough and 993mb surface low will take a track a bit farther south Thursday. This feature will reach the middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday afternoon and introduce our next chance of rain and thunderstorms to the region. Conditions do not look supportive of widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, but CAPE is expected to approach 350 J/kg with 0-3 km SRH near 200 m^2/s^2 so a few strong to severe storms are possible (less than a 30 percent chance for severe). A cold front will bring temperatures back down into the low 60s to middle 70s Friday and lower any threat of severe storms. Next weekend looks showery with milder temperatures as a long wave trough shifts over the Mississippi River Valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 The MVFR stratus deck has continued to move south and has made it further into West Tennessee than expected in the 00z TAFs. Due to this, MEM has cleared to VFR with the edge of the stratus only a handful of miles northwest of MKL. Some back-building of stratus is evident on satellite and could slow the southerly progression of VFR into MKL. TUP is forecast to remain MVFR through 15z tomorrow. In areas that have experienced a transition to VFR, somewhat optimal fog conditions will be present through tonight. With guidance struggling to capture the progression of stratus, the fog threat may be underdone, especially at MEM. Some guidance has flipped towards this forecast, showing a 50% chance of visibilities below 1 SM morning, but enough disagreement with regards to other models has prevented any mention of FG. Therefore, have opted to include a TEMPO for 2 SM at MEM and maintain the 1 SM at JBR from 10z - 13z. Any CIG/visibility impacts are expected to quickly lift to VFR after 15z as the stratus deck erodes. VFR will then prevail through the end of the forecast with light south-southeasterly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1013 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through at least midweek, aided by recent wetting rainfall. Warm and dry weather will return Monday and persist through at least Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth Thursday night and linger through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JAB