Forecast Discussion
943 FXUS64 KMEG 070602 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1202 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop early Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A Marginal to Slight risk for severe storms is in place with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The latest NQA radar sweep indicates an uptick in thunderstorms moving northwest Mississppi from the ArkLaTex region with lift from warm air advection, a weak shortwave, and a low-level jet. As we move into the overnight hours, mid-level and low-level clouds will begin to increase, preceding a slow-moving cold front. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, currently oriented just west of Arkansas, will begin pushing into the Mid-South around sunrise, aided by this cold front. Looking at severe parameters ahead of this line of storms, forecast SBCAPE values will be on the order of 700-1200 J/kg, effective bulk wind shear values of around 30 kts, and mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km. Though the parameter space is not optimal for a slam dunk severe weather day, instability will be efficient enough for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging winds. Brief spin-up tornadoes along the main line of storms will be a secondary threat tomorrow as 0-1km SRH values are forecast to be upwards of 200 m2/s2 and MLCAPE values >500 J/kg. CAMs over the last 18 hours or so have trended slower than initially anticipated, therefore, the environment will likely have more time to destabilize as we move into mid-morning/early afternoon. Severe weather will be a threat all day as the severe parameter space increases with daytime heating as this line of storms moves southwest. Flooding will also be a concern as PWATs surge to around 1.7", nearing the climatological maximum for this time of the year. Latest CAMs are in good agreement that training storms will move mainly over the Mississippi Delta region and extend into northwest Mississippi. Forecast QPF amounts in the aforementioned area are upward of 3". Nuisance flooding and urban and small streams will likely be the biggest concern, warranting potential Flood Advisories, especially in the afternoon into early evening hours. The cold front will push past our area by early Sunday drying us out and leaving temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A bit of relief after the past several record breaking temperature days. Dry conditions will not last long, however, as the aforementioned front lifts back north and a few shortwaves increase our shower and thunderstorm chances once again Monday morning. By Tuesday, our weather pattern will begin to be greatly influenced by a closed upper-level low over Baja California. Several shortwaves will eject from this region bringing daily rain chances through mid-week. As far as severe weather goes Tuesday and Wednesday, deterministic model guidance suggests a more southern track of this upper-low leading to severe weather staying just south of our area. However, ensemble solutions and cluster analysis suggest a more northern orientation resulting in severe weather creeping into southern portions of the Mid-South. Something to keep an eye on. The latter part of the week looks dry and cooler as a cold front pushes through Thursday. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 An elevated warm front lifted north of MEM around 05Z, having served as a focus for Isolated TSRA over north MS late Friday evening. Latest GOES low level water vapor imagery showed an area of drying and subsidence behind the warm front, while KNQA and TMEM VAD wind profiles measured southerly FL020 winds of 45 to 50KT. While TSRA cannot be ruled out through 09Z or so, it`s more likely that TSRA formation will await the arrival of additional shortwave energy from the Arklamiss. And then it may -SHRA. Of greater certainty, an MVFR cloud deck over central and southern MS will spread northward overnight, first reaching TUP, then MEM and MKL prior to sunrise. 00Z CAMs were in better alignment on TSRA timing on Saturday, leading to increased confidence. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited over the next several days as wetting rain chances increase, aided by a cold front. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50% through at least early week. Warm temperatures will continue into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB