Forecast Discussion
649 FXUS64 KMEG 101811 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 - Severe weather chances will remain elevated over the next 24 to 30 hours. There is a low chance for damaging winds and a strong tornado tonight into early Wednesday morning, followed by damaging winds as the primary threat on Wednesday. - An elevated flooding threat continues through Wednesday, especially across north central and northeast Mississippi, due to recent heavy rainfall and the potential for additional training storms. - Following dry conditions this weekend, subfreezing temperatures are expected early next week with probabilities as high as 80%. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Mild and muggy conditions persist across the Mid-South today. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally, persistent low and mid level clouds encompass the Mid-South. WAA will continue this afternoon as deep southwesterly flow remains over the region, downstream of an upper level cutoff low. The latest GOES East Lower Water Imagery reveals a deep upper low churning over NW Mexico with several weak shortwaves translating through the ArkLaTex region into the Middle Mississippi Valley. A northern stream shortwave was analyzed over the ID/WY border digging down across the Northern Plains. At the surface, a quasi- stationary front is situated from northern Maine WSW into the Great Lakes region and back into Central Oklahoma and attendant to a 1002mb low. A dry line was analyzed across the TX/OK Panhandles with a 1022mb high over the FL Panhandle. The closed upper low will transition to an open and positively- tilted trough tonight. As it does, a weak downstream shortwave will eject from the ArkLaTex and into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Hi-Res guidance shows a moderately unstable airmass setting up west of the Mississippi River, characterized by 1800 to 2200 J/kg of SBCAPE. The limiting factor early on will be bulk shear which will be in the 20 to 25 knot range. If storms can hold off until midnight or later, the kinematics will become greatly enhanced due to the strengthening LLJ. Several hi-res soundings depict looped hodographs, strong instability, and high amounts of effective shear. Although coverage of storms will be low, there is medium potential for a strong tornado of two to form between 10PM and 2AM. The current SPC outlook covers this well with a 2% chance of a tornado, with a CIG1 for EF-2 strength if they form. Additionally, damaging winds and large hail will accompany any supercellular storms that form. The threat will wane as instability decreases overnight. Wednesday`s forecast features lower than expected confidence due to several moving parts in play. A large open trough over Texas will eject across the ArkLaTex by Wednesday afternoon and phase with a northern stream wave in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously, a cold front will march east across the Mississippi Valley and arrive in the Mid-South by early afternoon. Both hi-res and synoptic models depict a weak surface low riding along the front as it moves over the Mid-South region. In this scenario, the best overlap of instability and shear will occur closer to the TN River Valley and south. Nonetheless, a high shear and mainly low instability event will unfold. The main storm mode will be initially multi-cellular, but in time will transition to a broken QLCS. Damaging winds will be the main threat, especially with any bowing segments, with a secondary threat of a couple of brief tornadoes. There is some concern that a few discrete cells could develop over northeast Mississippi in the late afternoon and early evening, ahead of the main line, and pose an all hazards threat. Confidence in that scenario is low at this time, due to the medium potential of thunderstorms in that area in the morning and afternoon hours. The flooding threat is elevated as many locations across north central and northeast Mississippi received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall on Monday and local rivers and streams are near bank full. There is an increased potential for training of storms early on before the main line arrives late afternoon and early evening. The threat of severe weather will end late Wednesday night with a few lingering showers expected through early Thursday morning. A brief cool down is anticipated on Thursday with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will rebound quickly on Friday as high pressure slides east and return flow sets up over the region. Dry and benign weather will persist throughout most of the weekend as we remain in zonal flow aloft. Synoptic models are consistent with a strong polar front sweeping down into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Sunday and pushing through the Mid-South by Monday afternoon. Subfreezing temperatures continue to increase with LREF probabilities as high as 80% on Tuesday morning. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Thick stratus that is blanketing the airspace as of 17z will slowly lift to VFR for a brief period in the coming hours. The VFR period will be brief as a surface boundary to the northwest of the airspace will increase shower chances and cloud coverage. The coverage and timing windows of convection in the late Tuesday evening period are very poorly handled by the CAMs; resulting in a very low confidence forecast for the terminals. The low level jet will increase overnight resulting in LLWS from the southwest between 40-45kts at JBR, MEM and MKL. The aforementioned surface boundary will inch closer and cross the terminals tomorrow bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur through Thursday. However, widespread wetting rainfall due to showers and thunderstorms will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...DNM