Forecast Discussion
885 FXUS64 KMEG 231740 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 - Cooler temperatures will continue through Tuesday before a warming trend begins midweek. - Dry weather will prevail through at least Thursday. - A secondary cold front late week will bring our next shot at rainfall Friday and temperatures closer to normal for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 A much cooler day (15-25 degrees) is on display across the Mid- South with northeast winds remaining gusty, generally 25-35 mph, as this morning`s dry cold front sits just south of our forecast area. Tomorrow morning will be chilly, in the 40s, as the pressure gradient begins to loosen and winds begin to relax. Tomorrow will be another cooler day with highs in the low 60s to lower 70s, but cloud cover will be increased as upper-level northwest flow and a few embedded shortwaves move over the region. As these shortwaves move east, a few sprinkles could fall across our forecast area, however, decreased dewpoints and forecast soundings hinting at a very dry air column, little to no precipitation will likely reach the surface. As such, PoPs are 85F are 40-60% across the Mid- South. All four of our climate sites (MEM at 86, JBR at 87, MKL at 86, and TUP at 89) are forecast to nearly tie or break record highs Thursday. Luckily, ensemble members depict a weak upper-level trough with a colocated surface low pushing over the Great Lakes Region. An attendant cold front looks to begin dipping down across the Mid- South Thursday evening and into Friday breaking down the aforementioned ridge slightly. Friday morning and afternoon could be our next shot at appreciable rainfall, mainly along and north of I-40. Forecast PWATs, north of I-40, are around 1.4", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year, however, looking at forecast soundings, mid-level moisture does look pretty lackluster. Bottom line, showers Friday will be nothing to write home about as QPF amounts top out at around a quarter of an inch. Temperatures, however, will take a dive (15-25 degrees) following the front this weekend with temperatures in the 60s and 70s as a cool high pressure settles over the region. Something to note, the latest CPC 8-14 outlook has us leaning above normal for temperatures and precipitation to round out March and heading into April. Stay tuned.. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 VFR will prevail through Tuesday afternoon, courtesy of a dry post-frontal airmass. The primary aviation weather impact will be gusty north-northeast winds this afternoon. Post-sunset winds will veer to the northeast and lose gust potential, in the forming nocturnal inversion. Light easterly winds prevail on Tuesday, with a 1030mb surface pressure ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Behind this morning`s dry cold front, cooler temperatures have fallen into place with gusty (up to 30 mph) northeast 20 ft winds remaining over the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values have also dropped to around 20-35% with lowered dewpoints. A combination of gusty winds and lowered relative humidity has led to a limited fire weather threat across the forecast area today. Tomorrow, minimum relative humidities will remain around 25-35%, but gusts will finally drop out, leading to less of a fire weather concern. By midweek, moisture will begin to increase as a warming trend begins and minimum relative humidity values increase to around 35-45 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB