Forecast Discussion


784
FXUS64 KMEG 121710
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- A warming trend continues with high temperatures reaching the
  mid to upper 80s by mid week, with near record to record highs
  anticipated.

- Medium chance for critical fire weather conditions continue for
  northern portions of the region, warranting a Rangeland Fire
  Danger Statement through 7 PM.

- The weather pattern will become unsettled through this week with
  shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of
  I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Another warm and dry day is unfolding across the region as of
10 AM. These warm temperatures combined with some mixing may
translate to minimum relative humidity values dropping to 30%
this afternoon. A combination of low RH values, elevated winds,
and dry fuels resulting in Elevated Fire Danger. Conditions are
not favorable for leisure burning and wildfires could develop and
spread rapidly. There is a cirrus shield spreading over the
region from the ongoing convection near the AR/OK border, which
could alleviate prime mixing conditions. If mixing over performs
today, RH values could dip to around 25% west of the Mississippi
River.

The aforementioned convection will continue to move northeasterly
through the day and reach northeast Arkansas late tonight. Very
dry air was depicted on the OHX 12z sounding and is favored
amongst model soundings. Light to moderate reflectivity`s are
evident on radar; which indicates rainfall rates are modest. PW
values do not start to increase until 06z, but are still around
1.25" which is around the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Unless there is an uptick in moisture, which appears unlikely,
rainfall will likely hold off until around 12z until the column
can become saturated. A light, stratiform rain shield will move
across West Tennessee tomorrow morning with coverage becoming
more isolated by Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (10-
20%) of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon with peak heating
steepening surface lapse rates. Otherwise, the atmosphere is
rather relaxed and mostly capped.

Surface high pressure will gradually retrograde back west pushing
rain chances towards western Arkansas for Tuesday and most of the
day Wednesday. Surface temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 80s on both of these days which is around 15 degrees above
normal. Temperatures are nearing records for this time of year,
and if trends continue to rise, new daily maximum temperature
records are in the cards for Memphis, Jonesboro, and Jackson.
Tupelo is currently forecasted 3 degrees away from its record for
Wednesday while the other sites are about a degree away or tying
the record. The heat will be put to the clock, ahead of an
approaching shortwave bringing showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday evening. Given the hot and humid conditions prior to
arrival, there will be enough instability for thunderstorm
development, but confidence is low for any severe weather
potential. A signal for a few stronger storms is evident for
Thursday afternoon with joint probabilities of SBCAPE>500 J/kg
and bulk shear >30 kts are between 30-50% or less across the
region. Areas west of the Mississippi River are in the 50-60%
range from the LREF. There is still uncertainty amongst the
timing of the models of the shortwave arrival which could result
in showers and thunderstorms not aligning with the best
parameters. On Friday, a deepening trough and attendant cold
front look to eject out of the Northern Plains, with its cold
frontal boundary taking aim at the region for Saturday afternoon
into evening increasing shower and thunderstorm chances once
more. Current long term guidance favors behind the frontal
passage a cooler and drier start to next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds will remain the primary aviation
weather impact over the next 30 hours. Surface gust potential
will fade this evening, about the time a 40-45KT low level jet
develops around FL020. This will present marginal LLWS potential
into early overnight.

Isolated high-based -SRHA may occur in the morning at JBR and
MEM. 12Z HRRR depicts a few TSRA around MEM Monday afternoon, but
with HREF hourly TS probabilities below 10 percent and a NIL
Extended TCF, we`ll likely forgo TS mention in the 18Z MEM TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Dry weather continues with winds becoming elevated and minimum
relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent this
afternoon. Thus, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in
effect through 7 PM. Low level moisture increases by Monday with
relative humidity values increasing above 30 percent and a return
of wetting rain chances for Monday and the end of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB