Forecast Discussion

622
FXUS64 KMEG 201744
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the majority of the
  Mid-South on Tuesday due to a combination of elevated winds, low
  humidity, and temperatures in the 80s.

- Warm and dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s will
  continue through Thursday.

- Friday and into the weekend will feature warm and increasingly
  humid conditions as the weather pattern becomes wet and
  unsettled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The latest surface analysis places a broad area of high pressure
over the Eastern CONUS. A quasi-stationary boundary was analyzed
from a cold front over the Northeast extending west along the
TN/KY border back into Kansas City. The front will continue to
lift north over the next 24 hours with dry conditions and above
normal temperatures across much of the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through
Thursday as both surface and upper level high pressure remain in
place. Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
each day with readings in the low to mid 80s. Dry continental air
will remain in place on Tuesday marked by dewpoints in the low to
mid 40s. We went with a blend of NBM and NBM 50 for dewpoints
Tuesday, which yields RH values in the 23 to 29% range. Joint
probabilities of RH =15 mph are
pinging in the 20 to 35% range mainly over eastern Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee along the Mississippi
River. The rest of the Mid-South will experience RH