Forecast Discussion
885 FXUS64 KMEG 111730 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - A warming trend continues with high temperatures reaching the mid-80s through Sunday and upper 80s by the middle of next week, potentially flirting with record highs. - Medium chance for critical fire weather conditions on Sunday across northern portions of the region, warranting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. - The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 As of 10 AM, temperatures have generally warmed into the mid 70s across most of the area. A stalled frontal boundary is nearly parallel to the I-40 corridor with abundant cloud cover on the cool side of the boundary, resulting in temperatures to lag behind and reside in the 60s. This front is anticipated to retreat back to the north in the coming hours and warm temperatures into the 80s this afternoon. Temperatures will warm once again on Sunday and low level moisture dwindles as the warm front pulls farther away from the region. There is a medium chance of critical fire weather conditions being met across northern portions of the region as gusty winds ramp up during the late morning into afternoon. Joint probabilities of RH values at or below 25% as well as 20ft winds 15 mph or greater are low to medium through the day tomorrow. Ongoing and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels are an increasing level of concern. A Fire Weather Watch was considered, but given uncertainty in RH and windspeeds, opted to hold off on the watch. Confidence is high in conditions warranting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for tomorrow, but not high enough for a watch. Sunday night into Monday morning is when a pattern shift will emerge. Surface high pressure will begin to break down as a surface low develops over the Central Plains. Modest moisture is anticipated to develop ahead of this surface low which will bring low to medium (15-40%) PoPs to the forecast. The higher end of PoPs is mostly confined to areas along and west of the Mississippi River and north of I-40. These low end rain chances will meander through the week, for the same area, as moisture plume rides on the backside of the ridge axis. By the latter half of the week, the main trough axis and attendant front begin to traverse. Rain chances will increase for areas south of I- 40 slightly on Thursday with highest chances into next weekend ahead of a cold front. Aside from rain chances, the middle to end of next week looks to be unseasonably warm with high temperatures flirting with records. Areas along and south of I-40 have the highest chances of tying or breaking temperature records as temperatures warm into the upper 80s. From the NBM, there is low to medium chances from Tuesday onwards of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees. While confidence is low in beneficial QPF until very late in the forecast period, confidence continues to increase for very warm temperatures to manifest over the next several days. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 No significant aviation weather impacts are expected this afternoon, with light southerly winds and VFR. Southerly winds will increase after sunrise Sunday, with gusts developing shortly thereafter. Gusts will continue through the day, peaking in intensity around 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Dry weather will persist through the weekend. 20ft winds will pick up, and temperatures will warm, on Sunday. This could result in RH values dipping below 30% during the afternoon. Confidence is medium in RH values dipping as low as 25%, but confidence is low in RH falling below 25%. An RFD is anticipated to be issued for Sunday. Moisture influx will return on Monday and increase RH values well above 30% and wetting rain chances return. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB