Forecast Discussion
499 FXUS64 KMEG 270426 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1026 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1026 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 - Dry and warm conditions return Friday and will last through Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s. - Unsettled weather will return early next week as a front stalls across the region with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1026 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across portions of northeast MS along a lingering frontal boundary. A few storms have remained on the stronger side, with small hail and occasional gusty winds. These storms will finally exit our area over the next few hours. A much drier airmass is already filtering in behind this boundary as the surface low pressure drifts southeast. As clear skies and calm winds filter in, some high-res guidance does have patchy to locally dense fog developing generally north of the I-40 corridor. This will be something to watch through the overnight hours and near sunrise. Despite the frontal boundary passage, temperatures will quickly rebound through the day on Friday with high temperatures surging back above-normal into the upper 60s to 70s. With additional WWA on Saturday as the surface high pressure drifts eastward, expect for temperatures to reach the low to mid 70s. For those that have been wanting a taste of Spring, Saturday looks pretty fantastic with sunny conditions as well. By Sunday, subtle upper-level troughing to zonal flow aloft will allow for a series of shortwaves to exit off the plains into the early portions of next week. As such, our area will likely be bisected by a stationary boundary through a decent portion of next week, with the upper half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal while locations further south will continue to see temperatures 10+ degrees above normal. The exact location of this boundary will play a role in not only our temperatures but daily PoP changes, which generally remain in the 20 to 40% range with the best chances across our northern tier. All of this is subject to change with the eventual placement of the boundary, but this boundary does look like it will be set up somewhere either across or near our area. Looking near the end of the current forecast period and beyond, guidance continues to bring a stronger low pressure system off of the Rockies, which would likely finally knock us out of the persistent shortwaves. However, the timing of this system has continued to slow down, with some guidance holding it off until next weekend. Until then, expect for a generally warmer and wetter weather pattern to continue through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions across MEM/MKL as TSRA exits the region with patchy fog beginning to develop near JBR. TUP will likely experience lingering MVFR cigs through the early morning, with clearing skies by sunrise. Over the next few hours, patchy fog will continue to develop with the potential for visibility restrictions at JBR and MKL especially near sunrise. The entire area will improve back to VFR by 15Z and remain at VFR through the end of the current TAF period. Light, northerly winds will become variable across the area by tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will fall below 40% both Friday and Saturday, with moisture returning to the area early next week. Despite the dry conditions, recent rains along with generally light winds will limit any fire danger concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CMA