Forecast Discussion
975 FXUS64 KMEG 090454 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 - A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place Monday afternoon, mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a threat for very large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds. - The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry conditions persisting into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 A low amplitude shortwave and accompanying 40 kt speed max will approach the Mid-South today, allowing lapse rates to steepen above 7 C/km. The latest CAMs depict storms firing near the Ark- La-Tex by midday and pushing eastward. Ahead of this activity, the Mid-South will house around 750 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear in excess of 45 kts. Small, organized clusters will impact the Mid-South in the early afternoon and pose a damaging wind and large hail threat. A few of the CAMs bring semi-discrete supercells into the Mid-South. If this does occur, large hail will be the primary concern. Fortunately, the severe weather window will quickly come to a close after sunset with lingering showers pushing into the overnight hours. Unsettled weather will persist through midweek as a large upper level low ejects out of Baja California on Tuesday. A messy synoptic pattern will emerge at this time as the aforementioned low opens up and phases with a northern stream trough. Guidance continues to show frontogenesis over the Plains by midday as these features interact. A large warm sector will stretch from Texas to the MidWest with storms firing out ahead of and along the front. Guidance keeps the bulk of this activity west of the forecast area on Tuesday, though a rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for areas along and north of I-40 to account for this threat. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. Severe weather chances continue into Wednesday as the aforementioned features trek east. Kinematics will be plentiful for this time of year, suggesting organized severe weather potential. However, ongoing morning showers will limit destabilization through the afternoon. A typical high shear, low CAPE environment is looking more likely for Wednesday. The greatest severe weather chances exist in north Mississippi, where storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. Given how models are trending, wouldn`t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center trimmed the Slight Risk back in later issuances. By Thursday, the aforementioned front will finally clear the Mid- South. Dry conditions will return by mid-morning with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The end of the week into the weekend will remain dry underneath zonal flow aloft. Long range models are beginning to pick up on another frontal passage late Sunday into Monday. This would bring our next shot of rain, but it remains too early to pinpoint details. Stay tuned. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 00Z CAMs are in good agreement in speeding the passage of TSRA through the Midsouth by 2-3 hours relative to earlier guidance. TAFs have already been amended to reflect earlier arrival and departure times, particularly for MEM and TUP. JBR and MKL will be on the northern fringes and may only experience brief TSRA on Monday. Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs to spread north into the Midsouth overnight, perhaps preceded by patchy ground fog at MKL. TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED until TWR opens Monday morning. TUP ASOS-generated METAR is missing several weather elements, including ALTM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this week. However, widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB