Forecast Discussion
344 FXUS64 KMEG 190510 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 - Gusty winds approaching 35 mph will continue through tonight. Cooler air follows Friday with highs in the 40s. - Precipitation chances return on Sunday and will persist through Tuesday, though rainfall totals will remain less than a quarter of an inch. - The Christmas holiday will be dry and warm with highs in the70s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 A frontal boundary has cleared the Mid-South this evening, leaving gusty winds in its wake. Elevated winds will persist for the next several hours with gusts approaching 35 mph. Fortunately, winds will subside shortly before sunrise. Dry and chilly conditions are anticipated Friday with highs in the low to upper 40s. Temperatures will rebound to the 50s and 60s on Saturday before another cold front impacts the Mid-South early Sunday morning. Most of the Mid-South will remain dry with this FROPA. However, areas in north Mississippi will retain enough moisture to encourage isolated showers through Sunday afternoon. Any rain that does fall will produce negligible totals. The bigger impact on Sunday will be temperatures as a large spread in highs is anticipated. For areas near Kentucky, highs will stay in the upper 40s. Further south into Mississippi, expect temperatures to reach the 60s. Next week will be defined by a 589 dam ridge developing over the Texas / Mexico border. A few subtle shortwaves will traverse the outer periphery of this ridge on Monday and Tuesday, keeping a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be isolated with rainfall totals remaining less than a quarter of an inch. As the aforementioned ridge pushes east, WAA will bring well above normal temperatures back to the Mid-South. The upcoming Christmas holiday will be dry and warm with highs in the 70s. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Primary concern remains winds at MEM, JBR and MKL through 09Z or thereabouts. By that time, a post-frontal pressure surge will have weakened sufficiently to limit the strong gust potential. No such wind concerns on Friday, as the pressure gradient weakens and VFR continues. Surface winds will back to the south Friday evening, reaching as high as 20KT just off the surface. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1046 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Gusty 20ft winds will persist through Friday morning in wake of a frontal passage. Delayed dry air will keep MinRH values above 50 percent during this time. Expect humidity to fall below 40 percent this afternoon, but recent rainfall and light 20ft winds will curb any fire weather danger. The remainder of the period will feature minimal fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB