Forecast Discussion
290 FXUS64 KMEG 071744 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 - Benign weather is expected to persist through the end of the week. - A significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures climbing from the 70s early in the week into the 80s by the upcoming weekend. - Marginal fire weather concerns will exist through mid-week due to low relative humidity values and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Late morning surface analysis showed a cold front from central Alabama and Mississippi back through Arkansas and Oklahoma. A 1036 mb surface high centered over Lake Michigan is resulting in sunny skies across the Mid-South with 10 AM temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. The aforementioned surface high will bring another pleasant afternoon to the Mid-South with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40, and lower to middle 70s south. Surface dewpoints were adjusted towards the NBM 10th percentile based on current observational trends. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will range between 25 to 30 percent. A high confidence and dry persistence forecast will continue into the upcoming weekend as upper-level ridging builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley and southerly winds will return on Wednesday as the surface high moves southeast towards New England and the Mid-Atlantic coast. There is a medium to high chance (50-70%) of temperatures reaching 85 degrees or greater, especially by Sunday. Near-record to record high temperatures are likely at climate sites this weekend, particularly east of the Mississippi River. Long term deterministic and ensemble model solutions indicate the upper-level ridge will move towards the East Coast by early next week. This will result in a return of southwest flow aloft across the Lower Mississippi Valley, increasing low- level moisture and convective chances next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected with east winds becoming more southerly throughout the period around 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Dry conditions are expected to continue with no measurable rainfall currently in the forecast until next week. Marginal fire danger concerns will exist into Wednesday, with minimum relative humidity values ranging between 25 to 35 percent. However, 20ft winds remain below 10 mph with the exception of a few locations across NE AR and the MO Bootheel this afternoon. MinRH values will remain generally low through the second half of the week, with values remaining between 30 to 45 percent. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CAD