Forecast Discussion
082 FXUS64 KMEG 040502 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1102 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest chances across north Mississippi. There is a low chance (20%) of light freezing rain along the I-40 corridor Thursday afternoon. - A chance (less than 40%) of a light wintry mix is expected Thursday night into early Friday morning north of I-40, mainly impacting bridges and elevated surfaces. - Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The first of two features in the near term will start making its way into the region from the ArkLATex during the overnight period. This initial push is most likely going to be just rain, considering it will stay confined to north Mississippi where temperatures will be sitting a few degrees above freezing aided by thick cloud cover. The next push from a more dynamic shortwave system will start as early as noon on Thursday. This second system raises a few more questions about precipitation type and impacts. Digging into the CAMs, point soundings suggest a very shallow warm nose between 700-850 mb during the onset of precip Thursday afternoon. This will make or break precipitation types, especially because the surface temperatures will be hovering at or just above freezing along the I-40 corridor for most of the afternoon. By the time sunset rolls around, the changeover line from a rain/snow mix to just rain will most likely dip a little farther south. Since ground temperatures have been relatively warm, snow is not likely to accumulate tomorrow even in the northernmost counties. The biggest impact will be slick roads from a light dusting of snow, especially on bridges. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may also become slick, so use extra caution both walking and driving. It`s worth noting that the forecast is trending away from freezing rain altogether. The latest probabilities for even a light glaze of ice (0.01") are only around 20% for the chunk of the CWA just north of I-40. This change is most likely due to the column`s warm layer not being stout enough to fully melt the ice crystals on the way down. As such, no Winter Weather Advisory was issued with this forecast package. Regardless, roads may still suddenly become slick with rain while temperatures are near freezing. Precip with this shortwave will come to a close no later than sunrise Friday morning. Moving into the weekend, a very weak frontal boundary will support a slight chance (15-20%) of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will be back in the 40s and 50s by this point so winter weather is not a concern over the weekend. Monday and Tuesday finally dry out with high pressure at the surface after the weak cold front finally passes. We end up back in a cool, active, northwesterly flow regime by midweek with another shot at rain starting Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A messy TAF period ahead with likely fluctuations in flight categories. MVFR cloud deck remains to the west of the airspace and will slowly move in over the next few hours. By 12Z, all terminals will likely have at least some periods of MVFR to LIFR cigs. Scattered SHRA will move across north MS this morning, with the rest of the area remaining dry through around 20Z. Another round of precipitation will move through the airspace, with potential impacts to all sites after 20Z through around 05/03Z east. The southern extent of the precipitation will be rain-only, but some wintry conditions cannot be ruled out at JBR/MKL. Confidence is too low to include any mention of wintry precip for MEM at this time. CAMs are continuing to hint at lingering LIFR conditions near the end of the current TAF period, which will be worth watching for future forecasts. Winds will remain northerly through the TAF period, picking up to between 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA