Forecast Discussion
873 FXUS64 KMEG 011148 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 648 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 - Afternoon temperatures will continue around 15 degrees above normal through Friday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-South today and Thursday, though higher rain chances are in store for late Friday into Saturday. - Early next week will be dry and seasonable with highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Mild conditions continue today in the midst of a warming pattern with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Surface southerlies will be somewhat strong today owing to a tightening pressure gradient across the region, especially in the Mississippi River Delta where wind gusts are expected to exceed 30 mph through this afternoon. HREF/NBM seem to have had unrealistically low probabilities of us meeting our Wind Advisory thresholds today, but multiple sites in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have already reached our criteria. NQA/PAH VADs from this morning displayed 1-2 km winds well in excess of 40 mph. With plenty of sunshine in northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel, these winds are expected to mix to the surface. Therefore, we have issued a Wind Advisory through this 6 p.m. CDT this evening for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel. Moisture is also increasing as higher dew points are pulled north off the Gulf. By early this afternoon, uncapped MLCAPE values are expected to reach anywhere from 750 - 1000 J/kg across northern Mississippi. Isolated, convective showers are possible within this region with a low (20%) chance of thunder that should dissipate by sunset. The broader zonal flow over the CONUS will continue through Wednesday along with southerly surface winds and high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s. An extension of the subtropical jet stream will enter the plains and amplify into shortwave trough into early Thursday, traveling northeast into the Midwest. Much of the core flow associated with this system will remain north of the Mid-South, but enough upper lift will overspread the region to produce isolated/scattered rain showers through Thursday afternoon. A second trough, originating from the polar westerlies off the west coast, will swing in behind Thursday`s trough. Similar to the first one, much of the better dynamics will remain well north of the Mid-South with the main driver of rainfall being a frontal passage. Since the front will sweep through the region in a matter of hours and no upper support for much rain ahead of the boundary, QPF values may be on the lighter side. Recent model trends support this as QPF amounts have steadily decreased in the last several forecast cycles, down to 1" - 1.75" from 2" - 3" just a couple days ago. So, at this time anywhere from 1" - 1.5" seems reasonable, but this forecast may change more in future forecast cycles. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible along the front, but severe weather is not expected at this time due to a lack of both instability and shear. Confidence has increased that the front will clear the region by Sunday morning, with cooler and drier weather behind. Temperatures on Sunday will only climb into the 50s and low 60s with Monday`s morning lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Into next week, ensembles are in agreement that the region will be juxtaposed within a split stream pattern with northwesterly upper flow to our north, and zonal, subtropical flow to our south. This will effectively stagnate the surface pattern with high pressure expected to remain into early next week, keeping the dry, cool conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 A near-persistence aviation forecast today. Momentum from stronger winds at FL020 partially mix to the surface after a few hours of daytime heating. In the interim, SCT/BKN MVFR deck will affect the terminals - TUP in particular. Expect fairly strong southerly winds off the surface this evening at all TAF sites, above the forming nocturnal inversion. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future, as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 35%. Elevated 20ft winds are expected today across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with winds approaching 25 - 30 mph. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1"-1.5" are expected starting Wednesday, and are to last through Saturday, providing some relief to our ongoing drought conditions. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB