Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS64 KMEG 071109
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning
  through Sunday.

- Dry conditions above normal temperatures are expected this
  weekend and into early next week, aiding in melting of residual
  ice, sleet, and snow.

- Isolated shower chances return next Tuesday and again in the
  latter part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A slightly warmer night is on the display at this hour with
current temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s under mostly
clear skies with slightly elevated north/northeast winds at the
surface. A weak, dry cold front pushed southeast over the Mid-
South this afternoon into evening, and currently sits just south
of our area. Cooler air is slowly filtering in and will continue
into the overnight hours. Saturday morning lows will be near or
below freezing, likely leading to refreezing of any wet surfaces
from ice, sleet, snow melt, potentially resulting in a few slick
spots. Afternoon temperatures Saturday will fall closer to normal
for mid February with highs in the 40s and 50s behind this front.

This "cooldown" won`t last long, however, as upper-level ridging
from the High Plains will continue building across the
Mississippi Valley and southwest winds filter in warmer air.
Highs Sunday will be in the low 50s to mid 60s with continued dry
weather. Warmer temperatures will aid in residual ice, sleet,
snow melt across the Mid-South. Monday will be much the same, but
a little warmer and further above normal as the aforementioned
ridge broadens over the region with afternoon highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday, ensemble members are indicating that a cut-off low will
begin to push in from the southern California Baja. Ahead of this
cut-off low, a few embedded shortwaves and a very weak surface
cold front will begin to give lift to increased moisture across
the Middle Mississippi Valley. By midday Tuesday, shower chances
(30-50%) will begin to increase and continue into midday
Wednesday. However, rainfall amounts look very meager as the
latest LREF guidance is indicating