Forecast Discussion
442
FXUS64 KMEG 241200
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South with heavy
snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday
afternoon.
- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and
treacherous to impossible travel.
- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
into next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into
the single digits to below zero at times.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
The winter storm is in full swing across the Mid-South. Heavy snow
has developed across much of the northern half of the Mid-South.
Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 to 1/2 mile across much of
eastern Arkansas into southwest Tennessee with snowfall rates
around an inch and hour. Very strong warm air advection is
underway across Arkansas and that is edging into the Mid-South.
The KNQA dual pol products are indicating sleet along and south
of a Wynne AR to Memphis into northeast Mississippi. This line
will move steadily ENE over the next few hours with heavy snow
north of this line continuing. Freezing rain will start developing
over north Mississippi over the next few hours. Conditions will
deteriorate rapidly areawide over the next few hours. Avoid
travel. No major changes to forecast. Crippling ice across north
Mississippi into southern parts of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River. Heavy sleet with light icing is expected along
the I-40 corridor with heavy snow and some sleet at times across
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Winter precipitation has kicked off in the Mississippi Delta,
where radar imagery depicts an area of light reflectivity. A few
snow reports have trickled in from Helena, Arkansas which marks
the official beginning of what will be a potentially historic
winter weather event in the Mid-South. Temperatures across the
region continue to drop rapidly with areas near Kentucky already
in the upper teens with dewpoints below zero. This frigid air
will continue to sink south overnight. Wintry precipitation will
become more widespread over the next several hours as southwest
flow aloft continues to bring elevated moisture into the Mid-
South. The results: a mixed bag of wintry precipitation that will
result in varying impacts depending on your location within the
forecast area.
Initial precipitation type for areas along and north of the TN/MS
border is favored to be snow due to the absence of a prominent
warm nose, leaving the entire air column below freezing. Further
south, freezing rain and sleet are anticipated. This forecast
becomes messy by sunrise Saturday as model guidance continues to
develop a stout warm nose spanning from 700 to 850 mb. A
changeover from snow to sleet is anticipated for areas along the
I-40 corridor, stretching into the northernmost areas of
Mississippi. These areas will mainly see sleet through the
remainder of the event, but brief periods of freezing rain cannot
be ruled out. Further north, snow will be the predominant
precipitation type. Snow totals will max out in northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Anywhere form 6-8 inches of snow may fall in this region through
Sunday afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for
areas along and north of the I-40 corridor through 6PM Sunday.
A more crippling forecast is taking shape for areas in northeast
Mississippi, where ice accumulations are forecast to approach
1 inch through Sunday. In this area, the aforementioned warm nose
will be much deeper: spanning from 700 mb to just above the
surface. This will result in a freezing rain regime that lasts
the majority of the event. One thing to note is that ice
accumulations will have a sharp drop off depending on where the
most favorable environment sets up. Areas in northwest
Mississippi may lie in the axis of sleet, resulting in lower ice
totals. This potential is reflected in the current forecast with
areas along the Mississippi River forecast to see less than
0.25 inches of ice. On the other end of the state, near the
Alabama border, temperatures hovering around freezing will
discourage the accumulation of ice. In particular, Monroe County
may only see a light glaze of ice. In between these two
locations, however, will be a different story. The highest ice
accumulations will exist in an area stretching from Tallahatchie
County, Mississippi northeast to Hardin County, Tennessee. Ice
totals in excess of 1 inch are possible in this area. Regardless
of precise accumulations, hazardous conditions will occur as
infrastructure struggles underneath the weight of ice. Weather-
related power outages are anticipated along with slow response
times to emergencies due to hazardous travel. We encourage
everyone to stay home until roadways become passable.
Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations will be here to stay for the
foreseeable future as temperatures remain below freezing well
into next week. Single digit and negative lows are forecast for
Monday and Tuesday mornings, further aggravating infrastructure
and potentially leading to pipe bursts multiple days after the
winter storm ceased. This prolonged cold will keep roadways
treacherous, so we advise everyone to remain home into the
beginning of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold
Watch are in effect for portions of the Mid-South due to these
frigid temperatures. Portions of the Extreme Cold Watch may be
upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning as we get closer to Monday
and Tuesday. A brief "warm up" will occur on Wednesday with
temperatures approaching 32 degrees. Some guidance warms the Mid-
South above freezing. However, potential for this will be
unlikely as models are notorious for struggling to account for
snow pack and associated cooler temperatures. A reinforcing front
will arrive Wednesday afternoon, dropping lows into the single
digits once again by Friday morning. It remains too early to tell
the potential for a late week system, so for now remain focused
on our current conditions and remaining warm.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Conditions are deteriorating quickly across the area as snow and
sleet are spreading eastward. Only TAF site currently not
experiencing precipitation is KTUP and it should begin shortly.
CIGS and VSBYS will stay low through the period with the ongoing
winter precipitation. Still expecting mainly snow at KJBR, PL at
KMEM and KMKL, and FZRA at KTUP. Gusty NE winds will gradually
weaken over the area with a turn to the north by the end of the
TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Accumulating wintry precipitation will begin tonight that will
last through the majority of the weekend. Very cold air is
expected to accompany the wintry precipitation, but the cold air
will persist through the week. Fire weather concerns are minimal
through the period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...KRM
