Forecast Discussion
367 FXUS64 KMEG 020507 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1107 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Unsettled weather will continue through next weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances above 50%. - Temperatures remain well above normal this week with highs near 80 degrees. - There is a medium chance (50-60%) of heavy rain later this week and weekend, mainly along and north of I-40. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 A stationary boundary is currently draped across north Mississippi stretching to eastern Oklahoma. A bit of weak troughing is ongoing across the Central Plains with rain showers occurring across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest Tennessee. Very dry air aloft continues to stretch to the surface acting as a barricade to the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms. This activity will slowly saturate the column overnight and leave lingering showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow for areas along and north of I-40. The dry air will hinder accumulation and a quarter of an inch at best is expected. The stalled boundary will hang around through tomorrow evening before lifting north as a warm front and pushing out of the region, leaving the Mid-South warm and dry on Tuesday. A synoptic shift will take over by Wednesday as troughing over the southwest US takes over. The deep trough will swell over the Four Corners region and eject various bursts of energy through the rest of the week. The deep trough will utilize the moisture near the aforementioned stalled boundary to our north to continue to fuel itself. The location of the boundary will keep highest rain chances along and north of I-40. The LREF is showing a signal of the potential for at least some strong storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening on the warm frontal`s initial ascent. Joint probabilities for strong to severe thunderstorms ( >500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30 kts of shear) max out at around 35% Wednesday evening. While these probabilities are not high, it is a signal for at least some strong storm potential as opposed to severe. Thursday and Friday should remain just general shower and thunderstorm conditions with modest precipitation. Also from the LREF, probabilities of accumulated rainfall from Wednesday to Friday morning exceeding 1" is 20-40% along and north of I- 40 with a 55% chance on the AR/MO and TN/KY borders. The weekend ahead also appears to be a washout, but a bit more unsettled. A strong cold frontal boundary will take aim. With temperatures near or exceeding 80 degrees, steep height falls, and climatologically high PW values; efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms are likely to occur Saturday. Given the estimated shear with the front as well as the intended negative tilt of its parent trough, we will be monitoring for a severe weather threat. Models continue to disagree, as probabilities for severe weather have decreased from 24 hours ago, but "a low probability minor severe weather threat is still being monitored next weekend. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Additional rain showers are anticipated to develop overnight and affect areas mostly along and north of I-40 into Monday morning. The PROB30 for showers remains in the forecast for MEM and MKL though with lower confidence in coverage and occurrence. JBR is expected to remain on the northern side of a quasi-stationary boundary with probabilities for MVFR ceilings 60 percent or greater, and a 50 percent chance for temporary IFR ceilings Monday morning, then improving to VFR conditions later Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Rain chances will persist through the week as a series of upper- level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Early on in the week, areas south of I-40 could still be impacted by RH values dipping below 40%. Wetting rain conditions are expected areawide starting Wednesday for the next several days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC