Forecast Discussion
987 FXUS64 KMEG 112339 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 639 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 - Dry conditions return Thursday through Saturday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. - A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 on Monday morning, and area wide Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 12Z water vapor satellite trends show an upper-level low over Texas with a mid-level trough bisecting the Northern and Central Plains. Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from Lower Michigan then back along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and into the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. A warm and moist atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with late morning temperatures mainly in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Regional WSR-88D trends thus far have shown a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms from northwest Tennessee back into east Arkansas. Some isolated intensification has begun across southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi as convection has moved into a slightly better convective environment. Latest mesoanalysis yields 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE, 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kts, and 0-1 km, 0-3 km storm relative helicity values around 150 m2/s2. Latest CAMs suggest the severe thunderstorm threat will be over areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and North Mississippi, where destabilization will occur. Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat. Secondary threats are large hail, localized heavy rainfall, and a very low chance for a weak tornado along a small bowing segment. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end into this evening as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing cooler and drier air back to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be below normal on Thursday with highs in the 50s and lows through Thursday night in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for Saturday. Latest long range ensemble solutions indicate another mid-level trough and a secondary cold front moving through the Mississippi Valley late this weekend. This will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms to the area for Sunday afternoon and evening. NBM guidance indicates a very low chance (70% chance) for a freeze occurring across most if not all of the Mid-South Monday night as temperatures drop into the 20s to around 30 degrees. Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week as mid- level heights begin to rise again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 TSRA potential is waning at TUP, leaving primarily stratiform rainfall over most of the Midsouth. A surface cold front was evident on KNQA radar between NQA and MEM, headed south. Initial gusts to 30KT not out of the question, based on upstream METARs. Post frontal MVFR CIGs will gradually lift above fuel alternate threshold as the frontal depth increases. By 00Z Friday, the backing surface pressure ridge axis will have passed through MEM, with southerly return flow forecast for the Thursday evening MEM inbound push. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% Thursday and Friday afternoon. Today`s rainfall will increase fuel moisture and mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB