Forecast Discussion


518
FXUS64 KMEG 020436
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Cooler and drier weather is expected through the weekend, with
  high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs creeping
  into the 80s.

- Wetter conditions will arrive on Tuesday with showers and
  thunderstorms forecast each day, ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A surface cold front just passed through Tishomingo county as of
10 PM with a southern shortwave digging over northern Texas. A
moisture axis leading the shortwave and ahead of the frontal
boundary has decent shower coverage over southern Mississippi and
Alabama. Thanks to the aforementioned cold front, the moisture
axis has struggled to climb north and very little precipitation,
if any, occurred during the day time hours on Friday. Cooler and
drier conditions will continue through the weekend with highs in
the 60s and 70s and morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

By Monday, subtle upper level ridging will begin to build from
the west causing a slight rise in temperatures back into the 80s,
ahead of an east/northeast propagating longwave trough. A stout
moisture axis will slowly saturate the atmosphere, resulting in
increased PoPs beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Fortunately, due to increased cloud coverage and rain chances
temperatures will be in the normal range on Tuesday early May (in
the mid 70s to low 80s).

The attendant cold front is currently projected to aim at the
region early Wednesday morning and sweep across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which is still subject to
change as models continue to trend earlier with each subsequent
model run. With this boundary, expect a greater than 50% PoP from
Tuesday until Thursday morning. In terms of severe weather, the
warm sector aligning with the best height falls is favored along
and west of the I-55 corridor. There is currently a 40-60% joint
probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts on
Wednesday for the aforementioned area, which is a good first
guess at available severe weather ingredients. There are a lot of
moving parts and as timing continues to change, we will monitor
the progression of this system. Guidance is in good agreement of
cooler and drier air residing behind the frontal boundary, but
timing remains uncertain.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR will continue through the next 30 hours. Occasional gusty
northwesterly winds will prevail at JBR, MEM and MKL following
the passage of a weak surface pressure trough around 18Z. The
pressure gradient will become light Saturday evening, with light
winds settling in at all Midsouth TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

RH values today will hover near or slightly below 35%, but fuel
moisture and light 20 ft winds preclude any fire weather concerns
. Humidity and rain chances will increase early next week as a
cold front approaches.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB