Forecast Discussion
354 FXUS64 KMEG 052340 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 540 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 - Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning into Sunday. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected on Friday and will continue through the weekend, leading to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 The 12Z upper air analysis shows an amplified longwave trough axis stretching from Quebec into the Southeast United States, with an upper-level ridge across the western U.S. A 1032 mb surface high is keeping the Mid-South precipitation free late this morning. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 20s to middle 30s after a very cold start with lows mainly in the teens to lower 20s. Temperatures remain below normal into this afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight are not expected to be as cold as southerly winds return on the back side of high pressure. A warm front will move through the area Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures to the Mid-South with highs expected to range from the middle 50s north to the middle 60s south. This period of above normal temperatures will be short-lived as a weak cold front drops into the area Friday night. Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday night. Lows are expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs Saturday in the 40s to lower 50s. Our confidence remains high for dry conditions continuing into early next week and a gradual moderation of temperatures by Sunday. Long range model guidance indicates an upper level ridge will build into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys by early next week. This pattern is expected to bring well above normal temperatures, with spring-like highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees by next Tuesday. A cutoff upper-level low will evolve into a weak southern stream open wave trough and move into the region by mid to late next week. LREF guidance suggests a low confidence (20-30% chance for 0.1 inches) of rain showers associated with this trough by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 The primary concern is a low (30-40%) chance of IFR CIGs after 11Z, depicted in HREF guidance for MEM and MKL. Deterministic guidance from the NBM and GFS LAMP carry no CIG at either terminal overnight, but indicate a potential cloud layer at 300- 600 ft. Given the limited confidence, the MEM and MKL TAFS include a FEW deck at a 400-500 ft near and shortly after sunrise. A surface cold frontal passage will bring gusty northwest winds to all Midsouth TAF sites Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1153 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next several days as minimum relative humidity values range between 40- 60%. A warming trend will begin Friday. There is no forecast appreciable rainfall through early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB