Forecast Discussion
441 FXUS64 KMEG 161830 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1230 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 - There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of rain across much of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi this afternoon into this evening ahead of another cold front. - Very cold temperatures with wind chills in the lower to mid-teens at times are expected this weekend into early next week. - The next chance of rain will arrive during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 We are getting a break in the cold weather today ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty southwest winds are bringing milder temperatures into the Mid-South. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s along the Kentucky/Missouri borders to the mid 50s across north Mississippi. Clouds and rain are increasing from the west in response to a potent upper trough pivoting around an upper low over the Upper Mississippi Valley. As the cold front and upper trough approach this afternoon, a coupled upper jet develops across the region, and a streak of rain will continue to develop over the next few hours, focused from northeast Arkansas into northwest Tennessee. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of more than a tenth of an inch roughly from Covington,TN toward Paris,TN, with the higher probabilities toward the Tennessee River. There is a very low probability (about 10 percent) of a few snowflakes mixing in along the Kentucky border as the column cools by wet bulbing. As the trough approaches, the jet streak will consolidate and strengthen to 140 kts, centered over northern Middle Tennessee. This will place southern parts of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi in the right entrance region of the upper jet. As a result, the rain will shift into those aforementioned areas this evening, mainly east of a line from Savannah, TN to Tupelo, MS. A very slight amount of instability (MUCAPES >100 J/kg) may reach into Monroe County, resulting in a low chance of a few convective cells, with less than a 5 percent chance of a lightning strike. The cold front will sweep through, and the upper lift will weaken by midnight. Rain will taper off, and some clearing will occur as lows fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s by Saturday morning. Cold air will filter into the region on Saturday on gusty northwest winds. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to mid 40s south. A few flurries or sprinkles may occur across the northern tier on Saturday as the main upper trough axis pushes in. Sunday night will be very cold as arctic surface high pressure settles over the region. Lows will be in the teens and lower 20s with wind chills in the lower to mid teens. Highs on Sunday will only be in the 30s. Another reinforcing cold front will push through early Monday, which will keep temperatures well below normal through Tuesday. Tuesday morning looks very cold with lows in the teens with another arctic surface high settles directly over the region. Temperatures will rebound to about normal by mid-week as the surface flow turns southerly ahead of the next front and the upper flow becomes more zonal. This front may tap into some southern stream moisture and bring rain to the area Wednesday and Thursday, with drier and seasonably cool temperatures behind the front for Friday. Forecast uncertainty increases substantially after midweek due to the strength and position of the eastern CONUS longwave trough. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 A weak cold front is making its way across the airspace as of 18Z. Pre-frontal showers will intermittently impact each terminal throughout the afternoon, though ceilings will most likely stay 5 kft or higher during FROPA. As the front passes, a tight pressure gradient will increase W/SW winds with gusts upwards of 20 kts. Expect winds to diminish to 10 kts or less by 00Z as the gradient slackens, picking back up from the NW Saturday morning behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening with a chance of wetting rains across much of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. Minimum relative humidities will be higher this afternoon (around 50%), so fire danger is low. 20-foot winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph across northern sections of the Mid- South on Saturday, with minimum afternoon relative humidities of 30 to 40 percent, though the cold temperatures will help mitigate any fire danger. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD