Forecast Discussion
058 FXUS64 KMEG 071859 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1259 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours with rain showers lingering overnight into Sunday morning, especially across north Mississippi. - An unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week with periods of thunderstorms Monday through midweek. Some storms may be severe with locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1259 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to traverse the Mid-South this afternoon with a severe weather threat continuing through sunset. The original Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been expanded in time and area for the remainder of north MS through 5 PM CST. The parameter space along/ahead of this line remains sufficient to support continued, organized severe weather with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts. The shear is admittedly weaker to the southeast, but is expected to increase as the line approaches. Fortunately, the 0-3 km bulk shear is now oriented nearly parallel to the line of storms, suggesting that the potential for additional spin-ups is low, unless segments of the line become reoriented more north-south. Precipitable water is anomalously high (near the climatology maximum for early March) with a corridor of 1.5-1.7" extending from the Arklamiss region to southwest TN. Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue overnight, with the greatest PoPs along and south of I-40. We may even see thunder persist through the overnight hours south of a Clarksdale-Tupelo line. Synoptically speaking, a split flow pattern will highlight the pattern through the middle of next week as a pronounced cut-off low spins over the Baja Peninsula. Broad southwesterly flow downstream of this trough today will become more quasi-zonal as a polar branch trough swings across the Great Lakes. This will drive a weak cold front into the Mid-South tonight, resulting in northern winds and drier weather across most of the CWA for Sunday. Rain will linger early in the day, especially across north MS, but is expected to gradually end by the afternoon. We`ll see a brief respite from rain chances Sunday night. We begin to feel the influence of the next shortwave trough by Monday, concurrent with the subtropical jet nosing into the region from the southwest. Above normal temperatures and the presence of this jet will enhance instability and shear across the Mid-South. This will result in the potential for a few strong to severe storms, perhaps as far northeast as the MS delta counties. Severe weather chances look to increase midweek as the aforementioned cut-off low opens up and phases with the northern branch, digging a sharp trough over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will trend upward through midweek, approaching record levels once again by Tuesday. The warm temperatures, strong kinematics, and enhanced forcing for ascent will support a slight risk for severe weather across the region. At this time, probabilities favor areas west of the MS River on Tuesday and pretty much area-wide on Wednesday. Forcing looks to be aided by the presence of a cold front that will move across the area on Wednesday. A drier air mass will move into the Mid-South for Thursday, knocking high temperatures back down into the upper 50s and lower 60s, but we`ll warm right back up to near 70 degrees by the weekend. A few areas, mainly in northwest TN and into the MO Bootheel may dip into the upper 30s Thursday and Friday mornings, but we`re currently not looking at a freeze. The NBM probability for sub-freezing temperatures is around 10-15 % for areas around Paris, Union City, and Jackson in TN. There may be another shot of colder air early the following week, but it`s a bit too far out for details at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 A line of strong thunderstorms will continue across north MS and portions of West TN this afternoon with a large area of trailing stratiform rainfall with elevated thunderstorms in its wake. This line has yet to reach TUP, but should arrive around 19z with west to northwest winds along the leading edge. Rain showers will continue overnight, with the highest chances along/south of I-40. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop with some areas of IFR likely across north MS. Rain will end across most of the area by 12-15z Sunday, but low clouds will likely linger through at least 18z for MEM, MKL, and JBR. The TUP METAR has been missing various data for the past few hours, so an AMD NOT SKED was included. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1259 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 Widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity this week, limiting fire weather concerns. Lingering rain showers on Sunday will gradually end by the afternoon, but additional chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Monday with periods of precipitation throughout the week. Winds will be light from the north on Sunday, with southerly winds returning Monday, increasing to 10- 15 mph through midweek and eventually shifting from the northwest late Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ AVIATION...MJ