Forecast Discussion
242 FXUS64 KMEG 131724 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 - Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record high temperatures are expected. - A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40. - Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 A fairly static upper air pattern will prevail over the CONUS this week, characterized by an anonymously strong ridge over the Gulf and the Southeast, and negative upper height anomalies over the intermountain west. Through Wednesday, the primary storm track will extend between these two regions, from Texas into the Upper Midwest. By Wednesday night, height falls will begin impinging over the Ozarks, associated with an upper trough lifting through the central Great Plains. Medium range guidance depicts this upper trough deepening as it lifts to the Ohio River Valley by midday Thursday. This feature will bring midlevel height falls to the Midsouth, along with an increase of 0-6km bulk shear to 45 knots to the north of I-40. While depicted kinematics appear supportive of severe storms, the morning timing of height falls and surface boundary passage cast uncertainty on the amount of instability and resultant severe weather threat. Timing may evolve in future model runs, but at this time, the 00Z LREF showed good inter- member timing agreement. A deepening longwave trough will move to the northern and central Rockies on Friday, accompanied by downstream amplification of the upper ridge over the Gulf. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with a high of 90 in Memphis - 1 degree shy of the record set in 2006. The western U.S. upper trough will lift into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. The northerly track notwithstanding, this feature will bring height falls to the Midsouth that are sufficient to drive a surface cold frontal passage. A pre-frontal maritime tropical airmass will provide PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches - above the 90th percentile for April. Given the expected progressive nature of the front, QPF is currently expected to be less than an inch and certainly not a drought-breaker. A cool and dry day is forecast for Sunday, with highs 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Thereafter, the upper ridge over the Gulf will amplify, ahead of another potential deep upper low over the western U.S. The early part of next week appears warm and humid. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Elevated, as occasionally gusting, south/southwest winds continue as the airspace is situated between high pressure to the southeast and troughing to the west. This favors a mostly VFR regime, but a few brief periods of high MVFR ceilings (between 2500-3000ft) cannot be ruled out for the remaining hours of the afternoon at MKL and TUP. Confidence continues to decrease in late afternoon/early evening shower chances, and even lower confidence in any thunderstorm development. The latest CAMs continue to further isolate coverage later on warranting some prob30 removals. MEM and MKL have the highest chances of seeing a stray shower this evening. Winds may become gusty again as early as overnight, but soundings are showing a nice inversion, and confidence is low in any elevated winds mixing down to the surface. Once the inversion erodes after sunrise, gusty southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Well above normal temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak wind shift will accompany clouds and scattered thunderstorms Thursday. Wetting rainfall will be most likely to occur north of the I-40 corridor. Low minimum relative humidity will return on Friday, as temperatures warm to near 90 degrees. Wetting rainfall chances return late Saturday, associated with a cold frontal passage. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...DNM