Forecast Discussion
546 FXUS64 KMEG 192341 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 541 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 - Brisk mornings are expected through Wednesday with low temperatures tonight in the upper teens and low 20s and mid 20s to lower 30s Tuesday night. - Light rain will spread into the Mid-south on Wednesday, ahead of cold frontal passage Wednesday night with a low (less than 20%) chance of wintry precipitation. - Bitterly cold air will arrive by late week and set the stage for wintry weather this upcoming weekend. There is a medium chance of an impactful winter storm affecting the Mid-South starting Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Morning surface analysis shows a surface low over eastern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the northeastern CONUS and to the west into the Plains. Behind the front, a 1036 mb high is forecast to drive the boundary through the region today. Therefore, temperatures will only have a few hours of diurnal heating this morning with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 30s by noon. After the front reaches the region, temperatures will plummet back into the low 30s by sunset. Further advection tonight and radiational cooling will then drop the temperatures further with lows in the low 20s and upper teens. The cold from today`s frontal intrusion will be short-lived as guidance warms the region quickly Tuesday as the cold air advection weakens. However, the larger-scale pattern aloft, which consists of troughing over the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the west coast, will continue to bring shortwave disturbances into the Plains from central Canada. Current guidance indicates that the next of these systems will arrive late Tuesday and bring another reinforcing front south into Wednesday with a medium-high (50% - 70%) chance for precipitation along the front. At this time, no wintry precipitation is expected with this front and only around .25" - .75" of rain accumulation, primarily across north Mississippi and portions of southeastern Arkansas. The second front will pass and stall across the region late Wednesday and into Thursday, although it is uncertain whether or not the region will completely dry out or not Wednesday night into Thursday. Current NBM guidance keeps 50% - 70% PoPs across northern Mississippi through Thursday and into Friday, while GFS/ECMWF guidance dries the region out for a 12 - 24 hour window. Regardless, temperatures will be above freezing through this time frame, even with another frontal passage Thursday night, and should limit concerns for wintry precipitation if any moisture is able to persist through this time frame. Ensembles and deterministic guidance are in agreement that large- scale troughing over the eastern CONUS will remain through at least Friday, keeping the Mid-South in a cold, active pattern. On Friday, a strong, arctic front will dive into the northern CONUS as a 1045+ mb high slides south out of Canada. Eventually, the front will reach the Mid-South Friday evening, bringing well- below-freezing temperatures. At the same time, a branch of the subtropical stream over the eastern Pacific will become amplified as a cutoff low develops out of the northern stream off the coast of California. The downstream advection of moisture aloft from the subtropical southwesterlies will then be timed optimally to begin overrunning the cold front as it pushes through Mid-South. Therefore, there is increasing confidence that widespread, impactful wintry precipitation could occur starting Friday, potentially lasting through Sunday morning. Although there is increasing confidence that wintry precipitation will occur this weekend, there is still significant uncertainty in where certain p-types will occur, their magnitude/impacts, and the timing of the front or moisture. The main discrepancy is illustrated best by the difference in the upper pattern between the ECMWF and GFS. The European solution is significantly more progressive with the upper trough off the west coast while the GFS prevents this feature from progressing east into the CONUS through the weekend. With a more progressive pattern, a surface low would be able to develop along the Gulf Coast, as the ECMWF shows, and provide better forcing for precipitation and higher wintry precipitation impacts, but if the upper pattern is less progressive, the strong frontal intrusion will win out and undercut the moisture too quickly for higher QPF totals. As of the 12z GEFS and 00z LREF, ensembles are split down the middle between both solutions, hinting that high forecast uncertainty still exists and that the true level of any impacts may not be well known yet for another couple of forecast cycles. Looking into the spatial distribution of possible precipitation types, the aforementioned uncertainties in the upper pattern come to bear once again. Although the front will be well below freezing, models do indicate that a warm nose aloft will be present across the region between 850-700 mb. So, as the deep, arctic air mass slides beneath this air, mixed-precipitation types are likely with snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected. However, the location of each p-type will vary depending on the strength of any surface low development with two main scenarios at this time. The first would be the presence of surface cyclogenesis along the gulf coast (ECMWF/NBM solution), which would bring stronger warm advection aloft and mixed-precipitation (freezing rain/sleet/snow) up to I-40. The second is weaker cyclogenesis (GFS solution), which would likely keep sleet and freezing rain confined to northern Mississippi with lower accumulation amounts. Again, these discrepancies are expected to be resolved in the coming forecast cycles. So, stay tuned for updates as they come in! High pressure will settle in behind the front regardless of precipitation. Temperatures will be very cold within this air mass with highs in the 20s Saturday and Sunday, only warming into the 30s Monday. Overnight lows will be bitterly cold as pressure gradient winds behind the front take wind chills into the single digits both Saturday, Sunday, and Monday morning, which may warrant cold weather products in future forecast cycles. Temperatures could drop even further if a large enough snow pack is able to form from this weekend`s winter precipitation. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Confidence is high (100%) for VFR conditions persisting through the period as a ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Light winds will become south winds between 5-7 kts Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Dry, polar air will persist through Monday with relative humidity values in the 20 and 30 percent range with 20 ft winds between 5 to 10 knots. Relative humidity values will drop further Tuesday with values in the low to mid 20s. Wetting rain chances return Wednesday and will last through the end of the period, particularly across northern Mississippi with an attendant increase in humidity. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC