Forecast Discussion

985
FXUS64 KMEG 221854
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning
  Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations
  expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of
  North Mississippi, leading to weather-related power outages and
  dangerous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting
  into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop
  into the single digits to below zero at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface high pressure across southern Illinois has resulted in
mostly clear to clear skies across eastern Arkansas, Missouri
Bootheel, and West Tennessee. A slow moving cold front southeast
of the area has a parade of clouds across north Mississippi with
a few very light radar returns moving into Alabama. The next
30 hours will be the last of pleasant weather before a
significant winter storm begins to impact the region. A cut off
surface low will be absorbed by a deep, upper trough near the
Baja of California. The absorption will allow for enhanced
southwesterly flow feeding ample moisture through the atmosphere
for heavy precipitation development. Ahead of the wintry
precipitation, there is a low chance (30% or less) of sustained
winds reaching or exceeding 25 mph across northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel, and even lower chances of 40 mph gusts.
There are high probabilities of at least 30 mph gusts, so expect
breezy conditions in these areas Friday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning will go into effect
at 6 PM Friday for significant icing across north Mississippi and
a few counties in West Tennessee, as well as heavy snow and sleet
accumulations. Ice accumulations across north Mississippi
specifically will be crippling as probabilities still remain
medium to high (60- 90%) for ice accumulations exceeding three
quarters of an inch. These accumulations will be extremely
dangerous and hazardous to these communities. Weather-related
power outages, dangerous to impossible travel, and extremely cold
temperatures are expected to follow.

The aforementioned surface low absorption, however, will take on
a heavier tilt resulting in increased sleet chances generally
along and south of I-40 and between I-55. The sleet/mixed
precipitation zone will be a very narrow corridor and will need
continued monitoring, but model soundings remain favorable for
sleet as the primary precipitation type. Snowfall totals
generally range in the 4-8" range, with probabilities of
accumulating greater than 10" between 30-50% are generally
confined to northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far
northwest Tennessee. Sleet mixing in will significantly lower
snowfall totals. As high resolution guidance has begun to become
visible for at least portions of this storm, there is a trend
that there will be a brief lull at times of wintry precipitation.
A bulk of this will fall late Friday night through Saturday
afternoon and then once again late Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon.

While several deterministic model outputs favor extreme icing
across almost the entire Mid-South, soundings show the entire
column below the 0C isotherm, with the exception of areas in the
ice storm warning. The areas with higher sleet potential hovers
very closely to that 0C isotherm, but surface temperatures remain
in the 25-30 degree range which favors sleet over freezing rain.
For areas that do accumulate snow/sleet, this will cause surface
temperatures to dip even colder. Wintry precipitation will come
to an end for all of the Mid-South by Sunday evening.

As if the mixed bag of precipitation wasn`t enough, prepare for
an arctic blast of extremely cold and dangerous air into next
week. Monday and Tuesday are likely to have air temperatures in
the single digits, with some areas below zero. The wind chills
will only make this worse so expect Cold Weather
Advisories/Extreme Cold Warnings for these days particularly. Any
snow pack and sleet accumulation will keep temperatures even
colder and could result in the Mid-South residing below freezing
for at least 72 hours, with potential to be sub-freezing for
96 hours. While confidence remains medium to high on
snow/ice/sleet potential, confidence is high for these
dangerously cold temperatures. Preparations should be made now in
the event that tree damage or weather-related power outages
occur. Snow and sleet accumulations remain subject to change as
more high resolution models display their outputs.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A relatively benign aviation day is underway this afternoon. Some
midlevel clouds are still hanging around the TUP area and will
continue lingering overnight. With the exception of a few hours
of MVFR ceilings at TUP early Friday morning, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Biggest impact will be northeast winds
increasing to 15-20 kts sustained with gusts in the 25-30 kt
ballpark Friday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with
the approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Saturated soils from wetting rains and higher humidity values are
underway and expected to last through this weekend. Expect
accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday night that
will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very
cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     MSZ001-007-010.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TNZ053>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD