Forecast Discussion
995 FXUS64 KMEG 021148 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain chances returning Tuesday. - The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 10 PM radar imagery depicts a batch of snow flurries moving across the Mid-South. This activity will continue through sunrise, leaving behind little to no accumulations. Another chilly morning is anticipated as lows fall into the 20s areawide. Impressive warming will occur through the afternoon as southwest winds advect warm and moist air into the region. Afternoon highs will top out in the 40s and 50s, allowing residual snow and ice to resume melting. Our weather pattern will change on Tuesday as a shortwave and attendant cold front trek over the Mid-South. Ahead of this system, moist air will overspread the region with precipitable water values climbing to the 90th percentile. Rain chances will increase in the morning with light showers developing from west to east. This activity will linger into Tuesday night, though guidance continues to decrease totals with each model run. The latest LREF shows a 30% chance of greater than 0.5" of rain falling in northeast Mississippi through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, these probabilities decrease. Behind the front, temperatures will drop well below normal. Thursday morning will be the chilliest as lows bottom out in the upper teens to low 20s. Luckily, these temperatures won`t last long as southwest winds return by Thursday afternoon. Friday is forecast to be the warmest day in recent memory as highs climb into the 50s and 60s. Long range guidance continues to hint at another frontal passage on Saturday. Run-to-run inconsistencies regarding precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday make the forecast a bit murky into next week. However, climate models continue to favor slightly above normal temperatures through the second week of February. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 High confidence in VFR through midnight tonight as high pressure exits the region. Guidance is in very good agreement on conditions deteriorating early Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches. W/SW LLWS around 45 kts will start up shortly after midnight for JBR and MEM, though confidence is lower at TUP and MKL. IFR ceilings and -SHRA associated with the front move in at the tail end of the extended MEM TAF and will likely need to be added to the other terminals with the next issuance. Surface winds are expected to remain light and generally south/southwesterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Fire weather conditions are not anticipated this week due to light winds and MinRH above 45 percent. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD