Forecast Discussion
071 FXUS64 KMEG 261132 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 532 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Conditions will continue to dry out across the Mid-South, with sunny conditions returning by Wednesday. Gusty winds are likely on Wednesday, with gusts up to 35 mph for some locations. - High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday through t he rest of the week, with near to below freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving morning. - There is an 80 percent chance that showers will return to the Mid- South by the weekend, with high uncertainty in the forecast early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Weather conditions are already cooling behind the passage of a cold front earlier Tuesday with another, reinforcing front on its way from the northwest. Therefore, temperatures will remain suppressed for the coming days with highs in the 40s and 50s. Gusty winds associated with a somewhat strong surface pressure gradient will exist Wednesday where winds could gust above 30 mph before decreasing through the rest of the week. A surface low, currently deepening over the northern Plains, will move northeast into Canada through the end of the week. Behind it, a strong area of high pressure will slide south across the central CONUS, keeping the forecast dry until next weekend. Upper subsidence associated with the area of high pressure will also bring good radiational cooling conditions both Thursday and Friday morning where there is a 60% - 80% chance of subfreezing low temperatures, especially for areas outside of the Mississippi River Delta. The upper pattern will become more zonal after Friday as the system to our north exits the CONUS into the Atlantic. Confidence is high that a low-amplitude, shortwave will then exit the rockies through Saturday and amplify as it travels east. Both the GFS and ECMWF produce another strong subtropical cyclone developing across the central Plains, with moisture returning across the southeastern CONUS ahead of the low. Rain chances increase into Saturday morning as moisture begins to interact with weak isentropic lift. NBM has been consistently throwing around the idea of a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain across the northern third of the area early Saturday. However, confidence in temperatures below 700 mb remaining at or below 0 C is too low to keep in the forecast at this time, but this will be something worth watching as we head into the end of the week. Rain is expected to continue through Saturday and into Sunday morning. Forecast uncertainty rises exponentially from Sunday morning through the remainder of the forecast period. Models depict a cold front, associated with the surface low over the plains, sweeping south and east Sunday. However, the latest GEFS and GFS/ECMWF forecasts display a lot of discontinuity regarding how far the front makes into the southeastern CONUS. If the front were to pass through the region, the forecast would be dry by Sunday evening, but some models stall the boundary within the Mid- South or to our West. This second solution would keep precipitation throughout the region through Sunday and into next week. Further complicating the forecast is additional uncertainty regarding the evolution of an upper trough over the western CONUS which would have the potential to produce even more precipitation as it interacts with the aforementioned surface front early next week. Solutions range from a quick burst of mixed precipitation to multiple days of rain to even a strong coastal low over the Gulf. Regardless, forecast confidence is still too low beyond Sunday to provide an exact forecast on precipitation for next week and will need to be monitored in the coming forecast periods. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Post-frontal wind gusts remain the primary aviation weather impact through midafternoon. A passing mildevel trough will bring increasing clouds after sunset. Cloud bases will prevail above VFR thresholds. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 No significant fire weather concerns through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 30% across most locations through this time. Winds will be somewhat blustery Wednesday with 20 ft winds around 10 to 15 mph across the area. The next chances for wetting rains are looking to arrive Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB