Forecast Discussion


242
FXUS64 KMEG 131724
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Dry and warm conditions will return Tuesday, followed by a
  gradual warming trend through late week. By Friday, near record
  high temperatures are expected.

- A passing upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front
  will bring showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, mainly to
  areas along and north of Interstate 40.

- Following a hot and dry day on Friday, rain chances will return
  late Saturday, associated with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A fairly static upper air pattern will prevail over the CONUS
this week, characterized by an anonymously strong ridge over the
Gulf and the Southeast, and negative upper height anomalies over
the intermountain west. Through Wednesday, the primary storm
track will extend between these two regions, from Texas into the
Upper Midwest.

By Wednesday night, height falls will begin impinging over the
Ozarks, associated with an upper trough lifting through the
central Great Plains. Medium range guidance depicts this upper
trough deepening as it lifts to the Ohio River Valley by midday
Thursday. This feature will bring midlevel height falls to the
Midsouth, along with an increase of 0-6km bulk shear to 45 knots
to the north of I-40. While depicted kinematics appear supportive
of severe storms, the morning timing of height falls and surface
boundary passage cast uncertainty on the amount of instability
and resultant severe weather threat. Timing may evolve in future
model runs, but at this time, the 00Z LREF showed good inter-
member timing agreement.

A deepening longwave trough will move to the northern and central
Rockies on Friday, accompanied by downstream amplification of the
upper ridge over the Gulf. Friday will likely be the warmest day
of the week, with a high of 90 in Memphis - 1 degree shy of the
record set in 2006.

The western U.S. upper trough will lift into the Upper Midwest on
Saturday. The northerly track notwithstanding, this feature will
bring height falls to the Midsouth that are sufficient to drive a
surface cold frontal passage. A pre-frontal maritime tropical
airmass will provide PWATs between 1.5-1.75 inches - above the
90th percentile for April. Given the expected progressive nature
of the front, QPF is currently expected to be less than an inch
and certainly not a drought-breaker.

A cool and dry day is forecast for Sunday, with highs 3 to
5 degrees below normal. Thereafter, the upper ridge over the Gulf
will amplify, ahead of another potential deep upper low over the
western U.S. The early part of next week appears warm and humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Elevated, as occasionally gusting, south/southwest winds continue
as the airspace is situated between high pressure to the
southeast and troughing to the west. This favors a mostly VFR
regime, but a few brief periods of high MVFR ceilings (between
2500-3000ft) cannot be ruled out for the remaining hours of the
afternoon at MKL and TUP. Confidence continues to decrease in
late afternoon/early evening shower chances, and even lower
confidence in any thunderstorm development. The latest CAMs
continue to further isolate coverage later on warranting some
prob30 removals. MEM and MKL have the highest chances of seeing a
stray shower this evening.

Winds may become gusty again as early as overnight, but soundings
are showing a nice inversion, and confidence is low in any
elevated winds mixing down to the surface. Once the inversion
erodes after sunrise, gusty southerly winds and VFR conditions
will prevail.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Well above normal temperatures will result in minimum relative
humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday. A
weak wind shift will accompany clouds and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday. Wetting rainfall will be most likely to occur north of
the I-40 corridor. Low minimum relative humidity will return on
Friday, as temperatures warm to near 90 degrees. Wetting rainfall
chances return late Saturday, associated with a cold frontal
passage.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM