Forecast Discussion
868 FXUS64 KMEG 060537 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1137 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 - Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning through Sunday. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected on Friday and will continue through the weekend, aiding in melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist into early next week. Isolated showers return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 A quiet night is present across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s with slightly elevated southwest winds at the surface under mostly clear skies. Early morning lows will drop near or below freezing, not as cold as last night as aforementioned southwest winds will be present as we sit on the backside of a surface high pressure. Friday`s temperatures will rapidly warm with highs in the 50s to mid 60s as an upper-level ridge, currently extending from the Pacific Northwest through Lower Rio Grande of Texas, builds east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This rapid warming will greatly aid residual sleet, snow, and ice melt. Come Saturday, a weak, dry surface cold front will dip down across the Mid-South bringing us closer to normal with highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Sunday, however, will be an almost rinse and repeat of Friday as the aforementioned ridge continues to build across the Mississippi Valley and southwest winds filter in warmer air. One thing to note for the upcoming mornings through Sunday, temperatures will fall near or below freezing leading to wet surfaces, as a result of sleet, snow, and ice melt. This will likely refreeze resulting in potentially dangerous early morning commutes and slipping hazards. By next workweek, the aforementioned ridge will continue to broaden and build into the Mississippi Valley from the High Plains and will dominate the weather pattern across the region. Well above normal temperatures will take precedence as areas along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line will see highs in the low 70s and areas north with highs in mid to upper 60s. Lows will be generally in the 40s and 50s giving the Mid-South an almost Spring-like feel for mid February. Persistent ridging will bring continued dry conditions through at least Monday. Our next shot at rainfall does look to return Tuesday as ensemble members depict a cut off upper-level low that looks to eject from the southern California Baja with a few very weak shortwaves out ahead of it. Moisture will begin to slowly filter in with lift from the aforementioned shortwaves and a few weak surface fronts. Benign weather looks to return by Thursday as upper-level northwest flow builds back over the region. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the current TAF period. Winds will become westerly by midday, increasing in speed to 10 to 15 kts and veering northerly in the afternoon. Wind speeds will begin to subside following sunset, falling below 7 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next several days as minimum relative humidity values remain around 40- 50%. Above normal temperatures return Friday. No appreciable rainfall is forecast through at least early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA