Forecast Discussion
706 FXUS64 KMEG 121808 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 108 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 - Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Cool temperatures are expected through Friday, and warm, above normal temperatures this weekend. - There is low to medium confidence (30-50% chance) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front Sunday evening. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds. - A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 Sunday night, and area wide Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Water Vapor satellite and 12Z upper air analysis show an upper level trough over the eastern U.S., and an upper-level ridge west. Early afternoon surface analysis places a 1030 mb surface high centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern is resulting in sunny skies and cool temperatures in the lower 50s as of 12 PM CDT. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances Sunday evening and sub-freezing temperatures expected for Monday night are the main concerns in today`s forecast issuance. A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the Mid-South into Sunday morning. Temperatures will remain cool into Friday with lows tonight in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the 60s. Temperatures will warm into the 70s this weekend as the aforementioned surface high moves east and southerly winds modify the air mass across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Long term model solutions indicate a northern stream mid-level trough will drop southeast across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Model soundings indicate a modest capping inversion will initially be present. However, impressive 500 mb height falls will overspread the region with a strongly forced line of showers and thunderstorms developing and moving across the Mid-South Sunday evening. LREF model probabilities indicate a medium chance (30 to 50%) for sufficient instability and shear favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River. Early indications suggest the main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Much colder air will filter in behind the cold front, bringing below normal temperatures early next week and sub-freezing temperatures for both Sunday night and Monday night. NBM probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees suggest medium confidence (50-70% chance) for temperatures below 32 degrees north of I-40 Sunday night, and high confidence (80-100% chance) of freezing temperatures areawide Monday night as temperatures drop into the 20s at most locations. Precipitation free weather will continue into much of next week as upper-level heights build across the Lower Mississippi Valley with temperatures moderating back into the 60s and 70s for late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North winds will gradually become light by this evening as a surface high moves over TAF sites tonight. The surface high will move east on Saturday, with south winds increasing to 10-14 kts with a few occasional gusts up to around 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% Friday afternoon and between 40-50% Saturday. Fuel moisture remains high from Wednesday`s rainfall which will mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday night. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CJC