Forecast Discussion
180 FXUS64 KMEG 171128 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 - Well above-normal temperatures are expected for Friday with near record to record highs around 90 degrees. - A cold front will move through the Mid-South on Saturday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. - Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday with fire weather concerns emerging into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 GOES Water vapor satellite and 00Z upper air analysis show a mid- level shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft moving across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. Showers and thunderstorms have weakened over the past couple of hours with increasing stability as the shortwave is beginning to exit the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky. KNQA WSR-88D radar trends still show a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly over West Tennessee. Temperatures as of 10 PM CDT range from the lower 60s over portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee where a convectively induced cold pool significantly dropped temperatures, to the 70s elsewhere where rain has not occurred. Short-term models continue to show mid-level ridging strengthening again overnight into Friday. Mostly rain-free conditions are expected across most of the Mid-South, with temperatures rising near record highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The exception may be across areas near the TN/KY border where there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon during peak heating. This anomalously warm pattern is expected to come to an end Friday night into Saturday as a cold front moves through the Mid- South. Confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms remains low as upstream convection arrives in a weakening phase across the Mid-South during the morning hours and best upper-level dynamics are expected to remain displaced to the northeast. Any marginal strong to severe thunderstorm threat would likely be limited mostly to portions of northeast Mississippi where differential heating boundaries could be the focus for additional development. Cooler air will arrive behind this front through early next week, bringing a return of near normal to slightly above normal temperatures back to the region. Long range ensemble solutions show a return of warmer temperatures again towards mid to late next week as an upper-level ridge builds back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms will also return towards late next week as low level moisture increases across the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 There is high confidence (>80%) in VFR conditions through this evening. Gusty south winds will develop this morning and continue tonight at JBR, MEM, and MKL. Gusts near 30 kts are expected at JBR. LLWS is expected at JBR, MEM, and MKL tonight. Winds will be lighter toward TUP where the gradient is not as strong. A cold front will push into the region late tonight and Saturday with lower cigs and increasing chances for SHRAs and a few TSRAs. We are not including TSRA in the TAFs for this forecast cycle since confidence in occurrence is low. Better chances for TSRAs are expected Saturday afternoon. SJM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fire weather concerns return for Sunday through Tuesday as minimum relative humidity values drop at or below 30% and dead fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Tuesday. Increasing humidity will be in place Wednesday, returning fire weather concerns to minimal through the end of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM