Forecast Discussion
224 FXUS64 KMEG 080507 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1107 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 - Lingering showers will clear the Mid-South by midday with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. - An unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week with periods of thunderstorms Monday through midweek. Some storms may be severe with locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 A slow-moving cold front will push across the Mid-South through sunrise, allowing scattered showers to linger across the region. Dry conditions will resume by midday with afternoon highs reaching the 60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the forecast for the upcoming work week will remain unsettled as a large upper level low develops over Baja California later this afternoon. Our next shot at showers and thunderstorms will emerge on Monday as a shortwave trough impacts the Mid-South. Persistent southwest flow over the Ark-La-Tex will usher in a portion of the subtropical jet by midday Monday. This feature, combined with the approaching shortwave, will increase instability and shear over the Mid-South. In addition, modest midlevel lapse rates are anticipated. These parameters will begin to overlap in the afternoon and evening hours, but an overall lack of substantial forcing will limit coverage of storms. Should a storm pop at this time, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns. The severe weather window will quickly close after sunset on Monday with lingering showers through the overnight hours. Active weather will continue to impact the United States on Tuesday as the aforementioned low ejects out of Baja California. As this feature treks over the Desert Southwest, it will become an open wave and phase with a trough moving over the Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will kick off over Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, pushing eastward overnight. Out ahead of this activity, increasing cloud cover will overspread the Mid-South. These clouds may limit destabilization on Wednesday, resulting in lower potential for severe storm development. The latest ensemble guidance depicts a marginal severe weather set up consisting of modest kinematics and lackluster instability. Remnants of Tuesday`s storms will impact the Mid-South by midday Wednesday. As of now, the most likely outcome is a messy convective mode containing bowing line segments. Damaging winds are the primary concern at this time. Showers and thunderstorms will finally clear the Mid-South on Thursday. The end of next week will remain dry. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 Low MVFR / high IFR will continue through the night. Patchy -DZ and SHRA will reinforce the moist nocturnal inversion, and will likely persist past 12Z at TUP. Expect gradual CIG improvement to VFR on Sunday, aided by surface heating and modest drying of the mixed layer. TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED due to missing VIS, wind and ALTM. NOTAM TUP 03/016 has been issued for the missing ALTM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 Widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity this week, limiting fire weather concerns. Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day next week, though anomalously high moisture will keep MinRH above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB