Forecast Discussion
660 FXUS64 KMEG 061105 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 505 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 500 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Some locations could approach the upper 70s on Friday and Saturday across north Mississippi. - There is a low confidence threat of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of the Mississippi River Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns if a strong storm develops. - Significantly colder temperatures will arrive Sunday through the beginning of next week, with low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 As of 10 PM, a weak cold front is depicted by the latest surface analysis just south of Blytheville, AR. The pacific origin of this front aided by zonal flow aloft will keep temperatures on the mild side through Saturday with highs generally in the 70s. Rain chances will be on the rise beginning Friday ahead of an upper- level trough and attendant cold front. While portions of the Mid- South are highlighted in level 1&2 out of 5, Marginal and Slight Risks respectively, Friday thunderstorms still leave questions regarding intensity. This looks to be a typical case of high shear, low CAPE which is common for this time of year. Joint probabilities of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30kts of bulk shear from the LREF have gone down some for Friday afternoon, but still remain elevated (50-80%) for Friday evening in northeast MS and northwest AL. CAMs are just starting to reach the Friday evening portion, but at least on the HRRR, Friday afternoon is currently favoring middle TN for development. The high probabilities and decent model spread warrant continued monitoring. Nonetheless, if severe weather does materialize its likely primary threat will be damaging winds given the linear storm mode. Large hail cannot be ruled out given cool temps aloft as well as a brief, spin up tornado embedded in the line. Some lingering isolated showers will hang around on Saturday for areas east of the MS river. The quick nature of the line, and light showers in nature on Sunday, QPF for this event should remain less than an inch. A re-inforcing cold front with a polar air mass behind it, takes aim at the Mid-South on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday may not exceed 50 degrees in northern portions of the region, before dropping below freezing Monday morning. Some areas on Monday, like northwest TN and northeast MS, will likely experience their first hard freeze ( temps