Forecast Discussion
814 FXUS64 KMEG 101135 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 - The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry conditions persisting into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 A large upper level low will eject out of Baja California today and transform into an open wave over Texas. Ahead of this feature, persistent WAA will be in place over the Mid-South with dewpoints surging to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Instability will exceed 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but ample shear will remain displaced to our north. The latest CAM guidance depicts showers and thunderstorms approaching northeast AR by the late afternoon / early evening hours. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out at this time, though lacking kinematics will limit this potential. Should a severe storm form, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns. Severe weather chances will continue into Wednesday as the aforementioned wave begins to phase with a northern stream trough. Ongoing morning convection and persistent cloud cover will hinder destabilization over the majority of the Mid-South. As such, a high shear, low CAPE environment appears to be on tap for Wednesday afternoon. Areas in northeast Mississippi will have the greatest chance of seeing CAPE values above 500 J/kg in the afternoon. The latest suite of CAMs is beginning to pick up on this trend, with consensus being a strengthening line of storms developing just before sunset. Damaging winds will be the primary concern with this line. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and exit the Mid-South early Thursday morning. Temperatures on Thursday will be near normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warming trend will kick off on Friday with temperatures reaching the mid 70s by Saturday. The upcoming weekend will remain dry, though long range forecasts continue to show a strong cold front swinging into the area late Sunday into Monday. This boundary will increase rain chances through midday Monday. In addition, there is a 35% chance that temperatures will drop to freezing Monday morning. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 The coverage and timing windows of convection in the late Tuesday evening period are very poorly handled by the CAMs; solutions are starkly different from one model to another and have had very little temporal consistency. Opted to go with a happy medium for each PROB30 in timing windows. TUP is the one site that will most likely not be impacted by any precip due to the surface boundary being displaced pretty far to the northwest. Ceilings are currently hovering at MVFR/IFR thresholds and should begin improving back to VFR early afternoon. Winds remain steadily from the S/SW around 10 kts with intermittent gusts up to 25 kts. Overnight, a low level jet will increase southwesterly LLWS to 40- 45 kts ahead of the front tomorrow. More widespread SHRA and TSRA is expected tomorrow with the FROPA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this week. However, widespread wetting rainfall due to showers and thunderstorms will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD