Forecast Discussion

078
FXUS64 KMEG 180357
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1057 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Light rain or snow showers may occur across northwest Tennessee
  overnight. No accumulations or impacts are expected.

- A warming trend will begin on Wednesday with highs reaching the
  lower 80s this weekend, with a medium chance (40-50%) of middle
  80s across northern Mississippi this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Evening upper air analysis places a deep upper-level trough along
the East Coast of the U.S. with a strong upper level ridge
centered over southern California. The Lower Mississippi Valley
is in between these two synoptic features, which is maintaining
northwest flow across the region. Meanwhile, surface analysis
places a 1025 mb surface high centered near the northern Gulf
Coast. A weak 700 mb shortwave trough is located over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and producing mostly cloudy skies across the
Mid-South. Late evening temperatures range from the lower to
middle 30s north of I-40, and lower 40s south.

The aforementioned weak mid-level shortwave trough will rotate
through portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
overnight. Short-term CAMs indicate a very low probability (