Forecast Discussion
792
FXUS64 KMEG 131805
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the Mid-
South for late tonight into Sunday morning and Sunday night
into Monday morning for dangerous wind chills.
- Wind chills will drop into the teens and single digits Sunday
and Monday mornings. Temperatures will remain below freezing for
a period of 24 to 36 hours.
- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain
chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern
continues to warm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Mild weather continues this morning with patchy areas of fog
across our northern counties and sunny, dry weather elsewhere.
Temperatures will rise further into this afternoon with
widespread highs in the upper 40s to low 60s, apart from areas
with persistent cloud cover and/or fog, which will keep highs in
the low 40s. Weak low level WAA brings a 20% chance of rain to
northern Mississippi this afternoon. Looking more broadly, the
upper pattern still consists of a North Atlantic trough and a
long wave ridge to our west. So, apart from the isolated WAA
showers this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry through this
weekend.
The most impactful weather story this weekend remains the bitter
cold that is well on its way to the Mid-South. A strong, Arctic
cold front is currently plunging south across the central CONUS
and will reach the Mid-South this evening and will usher in a
strong 1040+ mb high Sunday and Monday. A sharp transition from
mild weather to cold is expected with temperatures dropping 15-
20 degrees in a matter of hours. By 10z, most of the region will
be experiencing temperatures below 20 F, possibly approaching
10 F. Strong winds will also accompany the frontal passage and
drop wind chills into the single digits as far south as north
Mississippi. Some areas in Western Tennessee will see wind chills
below 0 F. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for
portions of eastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee, the Missouri
Bootheel, and northern Mississippi tonight through 18z Sunday.
Temperatures throughout Sunday will not rise above freezing with
many locations expected to see highs in the upper teens and 20s
with wind chills in the teens.
High pressure will continue to slide south and east into Sunday
night with winds steadily decreasing until nearly calm. However,
temperatures will be allowed to radiationally cool more
efficiently than Sunday night. Therefore, temperatures are
expected to drop into the single digits with little wind chills
from winds. Across northern Mississippi, confidence is highest
that temperatures will once again reach below our Cold Weather
Advisory criteria of 10 F. As such, another Cold Weather Advisory
has been issued for portions of north Mississippi. Areas to the
north could be included in a later forecast period, but
confidence in temperatures dropping enough is too low at this
time. Temperatures will warm up quickly into Monday morning with
temperatures above freezing by early Monday afternoon and dry
conditions.
After Monday, the forecast warms very quickly with Tuesday`s
highs in the 40s and 50s, increasing further Wednesday into the
50s and 60s. At the same time, the upper pattern will begin to
flatten out as the western ridge weakens. Ensemble and
determinist guidance has begun to gain confidence in a western
trough exiting the Rockies Wednesday with ample WAA ahead.
Moisture will increase dramatically as well with PWATs over 1" on
Thursday with a frontal passage. Therefore, rain is possible
along the front with NBM PoPs giving a 50%-70% chance of
precipitation Thursday. The bulk of cooler upper air will remain
well north of the region, keeping instability very limited with
MUCAPE only reaching around 100 J/kg to 200 J/kg on both the GFS
and ECMWF. So, some thunder is possible but organized convection
is not expected. After Thursday, ensembles remain confident that
a zonal pattern will begin and last through the end of the period
with mild weather and mostly dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
There is medium to high confidence that MVFR CIGs will move into
western sites from the SW this afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds will increase sharply behind the cold front and
gust throughout the entire period. There is a brief period of IFR
CIGs with the frontal passage, especially at MEM and MKL.
Additionally, SHRAs will develop ahead of the front and mainly
affect TUP for a few hours this evening.
VFR CIGs will return to all sites by Sunday morning with dry
conditions through the end of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
An arctic cold front will traverse the area Saturday evening
bringing very dry and cold air. Minimum RH values beginning
Sunday will hover around 25% with bitter cold temperatures.
Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry
airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will
be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-60%
chance of wetting rains.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for ARZ028-036.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for MSZ001>006-008-009-012>017.
Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
