Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS64 KMEG 260444
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are expected on Thursday, as
  highs climb into the mid to upper 80s.

- A cold front will bring a 20-40% chance of wetting rainfall to
  the northern counties on Friday, followed by slightly cooler
  temperatures and an elevated fire danger on Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A mild night is underway across the Mid-South as steady southerly
flow continues across the region and upper-level high pressure
builds in from the west. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
and lower 60s or about 15 degrees above normal. 500 mb heights
will rise to about 585 dam, and southwest winds will increase
ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Confidence is
high (around 80%) that winds will reach advisory criteria across
NE AR and MO Bootheel. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
Thursday for those areas. High temperatures will reach into the
mid to upper 80s, which will threaten records across the Mid-
South.

An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold
front through the Mid-South on Friday. The front is trending a
bit slower, so temperatures will warm significantly south of I-
40 with some lower 80s across north MS. The front will reach the
TN/MS border by early afternoon and exit north MS during the late
afternoon. The front continues to lack upper support and moisture
as it moves through the Mid-South. Areas along the KY/MO border
have the best chance of wetting rain (>0.1 inches), but even
those chances are only 20 to 40%. Areas south of I-40 will likely
not see any rain.

The airmass behind the front will be much cooler. A 1037 mb
surface high will settle over the OH Valley by Saturday morning
with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and 40s across the
Mid-South. There is a chance (30-50%) of temperatures cold enough
(