Forecast Discussion
441 FXUS64 KMEG 051106 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 506 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 - Below normal temperatures will continue Thursday. Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning into Sunday. - Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are expected on Friday and will continue through the weekend, leading to melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 A chilly night is present at this hour with current temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear skies. North winds at the surface are slightly elevated resulting in current windchills in the teens to mid 20s across much of the area. Overnight will be brisk with early morning lows in the teens to lower 20s. Pockets of sunshine and above freezing temperatures Wednesday lead to plenty of snow, sleet, and ice melt leaving many surfaces wet. These wet surfaces have already begun to refreeze, leading to yet another dangerous morning commute and slipping hazards. As we move through the day Thursday, temperatures will increase into the upper 30s to mid 40s areawide as upper-level northwest flow and surface high pressure build over the region. Another day above freezing will aid further in snow, sleet, and ice melt. Moving into Friday, the forecast becomes largely benign. An upper- level ridge over the southern Great Plains will begin building into the Lower Mississippi Valley, increasing temperatures above normal with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Something to note, both Friday and Saturday mornings will drop near or below freezing resulting in more potentially dangerous morning commutes as wet surfaces will likely refreeze. A weak dry surface cold front will dip down across the Mid-South Saturday, bringing us closer to normal for early February with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Sunday will follow a similar trend as the aforementioned upper-level ridge continues to build across the Mississippi Valley and southwest winds filter in warmer air. Next workweek will see well above normal temperatures as the aforementioned ridge continues to build in and dominate the weather pattern across the region. Areas mainly along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line will likely see highs in the low 70s with the rest of the area in the mid to upper 60s. Persistent ridging will result in dry conditions through at least the early portions of next week. Ensemble members depict a trough pushing into the lower Mississippi Valley from the California Baja by late Tuesday increasing rain chances (20-40%) across the Mid-South by mid-week. Something to keep an eye on. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026 A MVFR cloud deck currently resides along the TN River, with no impacts to any terminals and VFR conditions prevailing. Northerly winds will remain between 5 to 8 kts through the daytime, before backing to south/southwest by the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next several days as minimum relative humidity values teeter around 50%. A warming trend will begin Thursday, edging temperatures above normal by Friday. There is no forecast appreciable rainfall through early next week. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA