Forecast Discussion
732 FXUS64 KMEG 211202 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 602 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 601 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 - Bouts of isolated showers will continue through Saturday afternoon before a cold front sweeps across the region. - Below freezing temperatures will return Monday and Tuesday mornings, with a warmup starting midweek. - Rain chances (30 percent or more) will return by Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 WAA showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Mid-South as of 9PM due to a stalled warm frontal boundary across central Mississippi. Due to very dry air from last night`s cold frontal passage, much of this precipitation is reaching the ground very lightly or in the form of sprinkles. We will see a bit of an uptick in coverage and amounts overnight as an approaching cold front will push this activity eastwards. Rainfree conditions should return at the earliest by tomorrow afternoon, but at the latest after sundown. A cold front will sweep through resulting in cooler, Canadian air to sink south. Sunday`s high temperature is forecasted to be roughly 10- 15 degrees below normal. Elevated northwest flow will enhance CAA as high pressure continues to sink and shift east. Monday and Tuesday morning will be very cold with high probabilities of temperatures less than 28F for the morning commute. While Monday morning will feel colder than what it is, due to strong NW flow, Tuesday looks to be a primal radiational cooling setup. Would not be surprised to see a few areas drop to the low teens Tuesday morning across northwest Tennessee. Thankfully, this cold snap will be short lived due to return flow quickly settling in at the surface and advecting warmer air back to the region. This pattern shift will allow temperatures to climb back into the 50s and 60s, which will be 10+ degrees normal for the end of February. Model guidance is in good agreement for dry conditions from Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday and beyond uncertainty grows as an upper level low looks to traverse across the northern Plains into the Midwest. Depending on the trajectory of this low, the Mid-South could be susceptible to some rain showers as the warm front lifts north and as the cold front sinks south. The region will experience a brief reminder of winter early next week before meteorological spring is welcomed next weekend. DNM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 CIGs will drop areawide through 18Z, in advance of an upper level trough. VFR will prevail, but TUP will likely experience high MVFR (60 percent chance) and a few -SHRA this afternoon. A reinforcing Arctic cold front will return wind gust potential under clearing skies at all TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026 A couple of disturbances will move through the region through Saturday morning. However, there is high confidence that wetting rain chances will remain confined to north Mississippi. Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. Humidity and temperatures increase in tandem midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB