Forecast Discussion
183
FXUS64 KMEG 081157 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
557 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
- Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South Thursday
as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s.
- A cold front will bring multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rainfall starting Thursday evening, continuing
through early Saturday morning.
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms is in place
Thursday and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place Friday.
Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats, quick
spin-up tornadoes are a secondary threat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026
A large cirrus shield has overspread the Mid-South this evening
ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Despite a relatively
thick layer of high clouds, fog has been able to develop over
north Mississippi due to light winds and crossover temperatures
being met. Due to the persistent nature of this fog bank already
tanking some observation sites` visibilities to 1/4 mile, opted
to start with a localized Dense Fog Advisory for north
Mississippi through 9AM Thursday. This will need to be monitored
overnight for expansions; many short term models depict this fog
bank becoming transient and lifting north throughout the early
morning hours.
The cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system will make its initial approach Thursday evening. A few WAA
showers will likely lift north throughout the day, but the more
organized severe weather potential starts after sunset with the
cold front. Early indications of convective mode suggest linearly
organized showers and storms with fast storm motions to the
northeast. The severe weather outlook for Thursday highlights
mainly a damaging wind potential, though modest 0-1 km shear on
the order of 30 kts poses a secondary threat of quick spin-up
tornadoes. Will note that short term models are not resolving the
low level environment very well on Thursday evening; the shape of
the 0-1 km hodographs for eastern Arkansas range from dangerously
loopy to completely straight in the CAMs. This will have major
implications on the available SRH and resultant tornado threat
for Thursday evening.
Timing of this first round looks to start up around 6PM Thursday
as the cold front approaches. Once the onset of precip starts,
convection will be in the area for pretty much the next 36 hours
as the front will make extremely slow eastward progress. The more
organized thunderstorms will most likely die down by 2AM or so on
Friday as instability trickles off overnight. However, showers
and the occasional thunderstorm will still be in the area
continuously into Friday morning. After a brief lull in
convection midday Friday, things will start to pick back up again
in the afternoon.
With Friday evening being on the very tail end of 00Z CAM
resolution, it`s a little tricky to narrow down exact timing for
the second round of severe weather. At least from a surface
analysis standpoint, the surface low will finally catch up to the
front and track through southeast Missouri around midnight Friday
night. Before this happens, there will be a window of very
favorable overlap between the moist warm sector and shear along
the front. It`s looking like the second round of severe weather
on Friday evening will pack more of a punch. Still thinking
damaging winds will be the primary threat again, with a secondary
threat of a few quick spin-up tornadoes.
Another added layer to Friday evening`s severe weather potential
is the heavy rainfall. PWATs are nearly maxed out compared to
climatology on Friday, which will support very efficient rainfall
producers. Given the prolonged period of SW to NE storm motions
and a very slow-moving front, training storms will become a major
concern Friday night. Forecast storm total rainfall is on the
order of 1 to 3 inches for most of the area, but there is an axis
of 3+" inches forecast for northeast Mississippi. Conditions for
heavy rainfall and training storms look very favorable in this
area, which may lead to localized pockets of 4+ inches of rain,
especially near and southeast of Tupelo. Flash flooding will
become increasingly likely throughout the day on Friday.
The front will finally clear the area by midday on Saturday. Dry
conditions and cooler temperatures return through at least next
Wednesday as the upper level pattern de-amplifies. The long range
outlook depicts seasonably cool temperatures and a medium chance
(40%) of below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
Expect VIS to gradually improve over the next few hours, as
southerly winds pick up behind a surging surface warm front. CIG
transition to MVFR may take a few hours longer, given the influx
of moisture and relatively modest warming.
Pending no significant changes in CAM guidance, TSRA chances
appear to be below mentionable levels at all but JBR this
evening. Main impact for MEM will strong southerly low level jet,
with FL020 winds south/southwesterly around 50KT.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026
No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. 20 ft winds
will increase ahead of a surface low Thursday, but wetting rain
and thunderstorm chances increase in tandem, limiting fire
weather potential. Even in areas that do not see rain, moisture
advection will increase minimum relative humidity values above
50% Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
026>028.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>006-
008-009-012>017-021>024.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
