Forecast Discussion


868
FXUS64 KMEG 060537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning
  through Sunday.

- Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures are
  expected on Friday and will continue through the weekend, aiding
  in melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist into
  early next week. Isolated showers return by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A quiet night is present across the Mid-South with current
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s with slightly elevated
southwest winds at the surface under mostly clear skies. Early
morning lows will drop near or below freezing, not as cold as
last night as aforementioned southwest winds will be present as
we sit on the backside of a surface high pressure. Friday`s
temperatures will rapidly warm with highs in the 50s to mid 60s
as an upper-level ridge, currently extending from the Pacific
Northwest through Lower Rio Grande of Texas, builds east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This rapid warming will greatly aid
residual sleet, snow, and ice melt.

Come Saturday, a weak, dry surface cold front will dip down
across the Mid-South bringing us closer to normal with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 50s. Sunday, however, will be an almost
rinse and repeat of Friday as the aforementioned ridge continues
to build across the Mississippi Valley and southwest winds filter
in warmer air. One thing to note for the upcoming mornings
through Sunday, temperatures will fall near or below freezing
leading to wet surfaces, as a result of sleet, snow, and ice
melt. This will likely refreeze resulting in potentially
dangerous early morning commutes and slipping hazards.

By next workweek, the aforementioned ridge will continue to
broaden and build into the Mississippi Valley from the High
Plains and will dominate the weather pattern across the region.
Well above normal temperatures will take precedence as areas
along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line will
see highs in the low 70s and areas north with highs in mid to
upper 60s. Lows will be generally in the 40s and 50s giving the
Mid-South an almost Spring-like feel for mid February. Persistent
ridging will bring continued dry conditions through at least
Monday. Our next shot at rainfall does look to return Tuesday as
ensemble members depict a cut off upper-level low that looks to
eject from the southern California Baja with a few very weak
shortwaves out ahead of it. Moisture will begin to slowly filter
in with lift from the aforementioned shortwaves and a few weak
surface fronts. Benign weather looks to return by Thursday as
upper-level northwest flow builds back over the region.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the current TAF
period. Winds will become westerly by midday, increasing in speed
to 10 to 15 kts and veering northerly in the afternoon. Wind
speeds will begin to subside following sunset, falling below
7 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum over the next
several days as minimum relative humidity values remain around 40-
50%. Above normal temperatures return Friday. No appreciable
rainfall is forecast through at least early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA