Forecast Discussion
229 FXUS64 KMEG 290558 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures persist through the Holiday weekend. - Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday morning. - Uncertainty still exists regarding a low-pressure system next Tuesday that could bring heavy rain and a mixed precipitation regime to the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Surface high pressure, currently centered over western KY, continues to keep the area dry this evening with dry weather and cooler temperatures. Through tonight, high pressure will slide further east, allowing for southerlies to begin bringing moisture back into the region. This process will be coinciding with the arrival of an upper shortwave through Saturday morning. Isentropic ascent and dynamic lifting with the shortwave will allow the Gulf moisture to begin producing precipitation by sunrise. Although we have been mentioning the possibility of a few flakes mixing in early on, tonight`s NBM run has backed off from this scenario considerably, catching up to the latest guidance from earlier on Friday. The primary reason is two-fold, 1) surface dry air will be strong enough to evaporate/sublimate any flakes before they reach the ground and 2) wet-bulb temperatures will rise due to WAA before precipitation makes it to the ground. So, although we can`t rule out a flake or two, no impacts are expected with rain being the main precipitation type Saturday. A surface low will move to the north of the region throughout Saturday, bringing a trailing cold front into the region by Sunday. Precipitation will continue ahead of this boundary, which should clear our CWA sometime Sunday evening. This boundary is still set to stall somewhere near the Gulf Coast, meandering at this latitude through Monday. Most of the area will see dry weather prevail starting Sunday afternoon, which is expected to last into Monday morning. Another trough will enter the central CONUS Monday morning and quickly amplify while approaching the Mid-South. Enough upper divergence and jet streak dynamics will allow the front to our south to begin transitioning into a surface cyclone through the day. In response, another bout of moisture will advect north, crossing over the boundary where near-freezing temperatures will reside north of I-40. Precipitation will start on Monday afternoon as rain south of I-40, which will likely (> 60% chance) remain this way through the entirety of this event. To the north of I-40, near-freezing surface temperatures will allow for a mix of wintry precipitation types to take shape Monday night into Tuesday morning. Looking at forecast LREF sounding plumes from areas around Lauderdale County TN, a majority of the members` wet- bulb profiles warm above 0 C into Tuesday morning. This decreases the chances for snow in areas close to I-40, but as we move north more profiles move towards the 0 C isotherm, implying that snow would be more likely. LREF probabilities of .1" or more of snow accumulation is greater than 50% north of a line extending from Paris, TN southwest towards Trumann, AR, suggesting where the highest potential for snow/sleet exists. If this forecast holds, areas south of this line until I-40 would likely see a rain/snow mix or freezing rain. However, the details of who will see what kind of precipitation is where the majority of the forecast uncertainty exists at this time and will likely shift through the coming days. Precipitation will end Tuesday afternoon as the surface low to our south moves east into the Appalachians. Behind Tuesday`s system, the upper pattern will relax somewhat, becoming zonal through the end of the week with another area of surface high pressure over the region Wednesday. This will keep the forecast fairly cold Wednesday morning, especially if some areas are able to see any snow accumulation that sticks around overnight. Regardless, NBM probabilities of low temperatures Wednesday being below 25 F are generally between 60%-80%, outside of the MS River Delta in eastern AR and MS. Luckily winds are not expected to be particularly strong due to high pressure, keeping wind chills in the upper teens. Zonal flow will continue to persist into the end of the week as ensembles are in good agreement with this solution. This will allow for gradual warming as the surface high moves east. By Friday, NBM guidance has now consistently forecast more precipitation for the area as a new Gulf Coast low sets up. Other models do show this scenario unfolding, which could allow for another chance at wintry precipitation. However, forecast uncertainty is still too high to highlight any winter impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR and light winds will prevail into early Saturday morning. SE winds will increase as a cold front approaches on Saturday. Expect SE winds at 12-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS will also develop by mid morning and continue throughout the day. Showers will spread into the region during the day. A few snow flakes and/or ice pellets could occur at the onset of precipitation at JBR and perhaps MKL but chances are too low to mention and no impacts are expected. Cigs will remain VFR for much of the day but will eventually lower to MVFR from west to east during the afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM