Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181110
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough. Surface
observations indicate that pressures remain high in the area, and
winds are generally light. However, some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the
Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of
that region during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Katz
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 12:10:08 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181146
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elida, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.
Central East Pacific (EP97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or so
while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
portion of the eastern Pacific. For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the
south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
portions of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP5/EP052026)
...ELIDA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 the center of Elida was located near 18.0, -122.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...ELIDA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 122.8W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Elida is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A faster motion toward the north-northwest is forecast by early Sunday, followed by a northward turn on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but weakening is expected to begin by tonight and continue for the next few days. Elida is likely to become post-tropical on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180834 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 122.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 170SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 122.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 066 WTPZ45 KNHC 180835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Elida's satellite presentation is the best it's looked so far during its lifetime as a tropical cyclone. Although deep convection is still a little thin on the northern side of the circulation, a ragged eye-like feature has become apparent in proxy-visible and infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory. Some of the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, in particular AiDT and DPRINT, have increased to near or at hurricane strength, so Elida's current intensity is now set at 60 kt. Elida is still turning poleward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northwest and then north over the next 2-3 days as it is increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough encamped off the California coast. Nearly all of the reliable track models on this cycle lie along or to the right of the previous forecast. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast has again been adjusted eastward, especially from 48 hours onward. The cyclone is probably near its peak intensity since it only has about 12 hours left over sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius. Steady weakening is forecast to begin later today or tonight, which could be accelerated by an increase in shear that is expected to begin in about 36 hours. Elida is now expected to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours (on Monday), and the remnant low's circulation should dissipate off the California coast by day 5 (late Wednesday). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.0N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026 049
FOPZ15 KNHC 180835
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
0900 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 18 42(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
20N 125W 50 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 125W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2026 09:22:03 GMT